Archive | March, 2012

Betting bank: 28/03/12 -Barca can bag a brace in Milan

28 Mar

Morning all,

Sadly we made a 1.25 point loss on the betting bank in yesterday’s Champions league, but I’m expecting a turnaround in fortune tonight.

Marseille v Bayern Munich:

In their own league or in Uefa competitions, I don’t enjoy watching the majority of French team’s these days. They just don’t, generally, in my experience, produce enough goals for someone who likes to bet and trade on the overs markets.

Bayern Munich have been in great form recently, scoring plenty of goals. However, in their last Champions League away game, against Basle, they couldn’t find the back of the net. But that was then and they’ve since trounced Basle  and several other German teams in Munich recently you might say. True, but away to a French team and (I’ll use this theory here) in a first leg, under 2.5 goals seems more likely than over in my eyes.

In conclusion, I’d expect and like to see Bayern win 1 or 2-0, but I’ve decided not to get involved in the game pre-match and will instead concentrate on the game involving a Spanish team.

Ac Milan v Barcelona

We know these two have shared a few contests that went over 2.5 and 3.5 goals, but we also know that first leg’s can be tentative. Nevertheless, Barca and Messi are in great form, and Ac Milan ware without defensive hub Thiago Silva.

Put simply I see it as very unlikely that Ac will be able to stop Messi and co scoring a goal or two, so my bet is over 1.5 total Barca goals at 8/11 with Boyles.

I was going to do BTTS and wouldn’t talk you out of it, but I was swayed by Ac’s injuries and the form of Messi, so the die is cast for me. However, I’ve left one point free for a scorer bet and opt to use it on Ibrahimovic anytime at 9/4 with Stan James.

Recommendation: Total Barca goals over 1.5 at 8/11 for 3 points

Worth a punt: Ibrahimovic anytime at 9/4 for 1 point

All Twitter comments and bets, pre-match or in-play, relating to the betting bank can be found under #bettingbank

Anyway, whatever you choose to bet on, good luck and thanks for reading.

JC

 

Results: Ibrahimovic missed an easy chance and Barca could’t score. Ended 0-0.

 

Total yield – 4 points

 

Yield so far – 5.25 points.

 

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Betting bank begins tonight!

27 Mar

Evening punters,

First off all, please accept my apologies for the basic look about my site. Quite honestly, I don’t have a clue how to do anything other than add a new post, so bear with me while I work out what I’m doing on wordpress!

Anyway, on to tonight’s matches: As you’d expect, I’ll leave the English league games to other betting guru’s and concentrate only on the Champions League.

Apoel Nicosia v Real Madrid

Of course, I would expect Real to win this game, but given how tight (in footballing terms) Apoel have kept things at home I can’t be confident about the over goals markets and simply refuse to do 90 minutes at short prices . Indeed, under 2.5 seems like a sensible bet and I expect that any trader will be able to make acceptable “green” out of that market should the score remain 0-0 for at least 25 minutes.

However, for my money, there isn’t a solid pre match bet in this game with any value so I’ll either bet in-play or not at all. It’s very, very rare that I don’t offer a pre-match bet in a game involving Real Madrid, but I see no point in betting for the sake of it.

Whatever you choose to bet on in this game, good luck.

Benfica v Chelsea

Put simply and without statistical research, I fancy both teams to score in this game. I understand that this is a first leg and that they are often tentative, low scoring affairs, but unlike the Premier League Chelsea don’t have to make up  a 23 point deficit and can still win the Champions league. Mentally that makes a difference to the blues, and they’ll be aware of how important it is that they get an away goal in Lisbon tonight.

Many punters will fancy under 2.5 goals (around 4/6) in this game and I’m not saying that it’s bad bet or won’t win, but  I expect Benfica to score at home and have offered my logic as to why I think that Chelsea will. Maybe the game ends 1-1 and we all win? We’ll see, but whatever bet you take, good luck.

Recommendation: BTTS at 10/11 for 3 points (£15)

 

Post match analysis:

 

Apoel Nicosia v Real Madrid:

Via twitter, I recommended and placed in-play bets of  0.25 points on Real Madrid to score before 60 mins at 2/1 and 3.75 points on Real to win at 1.61 during the half time interval.

Result: Real won 3-0, but didn’t score until after 60 minutes so a 1.75 point gain from this match.

 

Benfica v Chelsea

I was very confident that Chelsea had reason to and would score in Lisbon, and expected home team Benfica to do the same.

Result: Chelsea won 1-0 so my BTTS recommendation lost us 3 points.

Anything I ca can learn from this? Unlucky to lose, but the “No” option in the Benfica to keep a clean sheet would have been a better option as pointed out by https://twitter.com/#!/z_tips Noted for future reference!

 

Overall yield: -1.25 points

 

Betting bank begins on 27/03/12

25 Mar

Welcome to the first ever post on my new JCLaLiga wordpress site. This is an experimental and perhaps long overdue foray into having my own website/personal blog of sorts.

I intend to keep my La Liga previews on the Forzafutbol wesbsite and will use wordpress to offer betting recommendations on anything non – Primera division,

Most importantly, my new wordpress site will be used to keep records of personal betting activity in line with the betting bank discussed on Twitter.  This “betting bank” starts with a balance of £200, allowing the majority of gamblers an affordable starting point should they wish to follow this scheme.

In line with my knowledge of La Liga above all other sporting leagues, the largest stakes will be used on this competition.

I will use the following points system:

1 point = £5

2 points = £10

3 points = £15

4 points =£20

A four point maximum system ensures that any one losing bet cannot cost more than 10% of the betting bank total. In truth, I’d like to operate a 20 point level for goal betting on Real Madrid home games, but that wouldn’t be sensible as the point of this bank is to slowly grow funds and gradually increase stakes.

I’d like to only use one betting company to keep the £200 in one place, but with so many price variations it’s important to take the value, wherever that might be. Idea’s on how this can be done are welcomed.

The betting bank begins on 27/03/12, and the first matches I’ll be looking to bet on are in the Champions League:  Apoel Nicosia v Real Madrid and Benfica v Chelsea.

Until my next post, thanks for reading

JC

Hello world!

25 Mar

My name is Jonathan Cordingley and I’m in my early 30’s. I’m English and enjoy domestic football, but from a young age have always been more interested in world football, particularly Spanish.

Since leaving university in 2001, I created, wrote, produced and starred in the Sheffield based community radio show ‘Talking Balls!” While working on this radio show I interviewed a plethora of local sports people, along with some – such as ex footballer John Barnes – nationally famous sportspeople.

As press (of some description!) I have attended many sporting events, mostly within Yorkshire.

From 2009-11 I worked for William Hill and wrote Spanish La Liga betting previews for the company. For the 2011/12 season I continued my betting previews with the American based Spanish football site Forza Futbol.

Then I got a sports writer/content editor job with William Hill, resumed writing La Liga previews, but left to pursue a freelance writing career and run a pay tipping site. I wrote for Grosvenor Casinos and the lovely people at Goalsgaloretips.com, among others, but am now working a marketing job (which I’m happy in) and back to posting bets for free on this site.

With this site I aim to offer in-depth betting and trading advice on what I know best- Spanish football.

However, I will also cover (much more briefly) South American, Champions and Europa League football.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy my website and don’t forget to follow me on twitter via @JCLaLiga