Brazilian Serie B betting advice – 14/07/12

13 Jul

Goias (9th) vs America MG (2nd)

-Goias fixtures are over 2.5 one game and under the next. Could mean nothing, but it’s something I’ve noticed.

-America MG have won 3, lost 1 and draw 1 on the road. With regards to goals, Mg have scored 5 and conceded 4.

-4/5 America MG’s away games have gone under 2.5 this season.

-3/4 Goias home game have gone under 2.5 this season.

-Goias are undefeated at home with 3 wins and 1 draw. In these games They’ve scored 8 (4 of these were against Vitoria when 3-0 down) and conceded 4.

-BTTS stands a good chance but is too short at 8/13.

Overall, under 2.5 goals (evens) and America MG DNB (5/4) are my favoured betting choices, but under 2.5 gets the nod as Goias have a strong home record.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (evens)

Ipatinga (19th) vs Gremio (20th)

-In 5 home games, Ipatinga have scored 5 and conceded 7.

-Ipatinga have won 1, draw 1 and lost 3 at their manor.

-Gremio have yet to win a game home or away.

-Gremio have scored 2 and conceded 12 on the road this season.

Conclusion: Although Gremio concede a lot on their travels, Ipatinga only average one goal per home game and under 2.5 therefore seems more likely than over. However, home advantage counts for a lot in a big country like Brazil and 5/4 is a fair price on an Ipatinga win against the worst team in the league.

Recommendation: Ipatinga (5/4)

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