Brazilian Sere A – 19/07/12

18 Jul

Gremio vs Sport Recife:

-Sport are in decent form (won 2, drawn one in their last three games) but have had a long journey to face Gremio, and the latter are strong at home (3 wins, one defeat).

-Gremio games usually go under 2.5 goals, but their last two have bucked the trend.

-At home, Gremio have scored 5 goals and conceded only 1.

Conclusion: Probably a 1 or 2-0 home win, but I prefer to bet on the 90 minute market as the price is just about acceptable and can be paired with the Sao Paulo – Vasco bet (beneath).

Recommendation: Gremio (4/9)

Santos vs Botafogo:

-Like many teams in Brazil, Santos have lost players to the Brazilian squad for the Olympics.

-Neymar and Ganso are the most notable absentees.

-Santos did beat Gremio 4-2 in their last home game and had players missing, but Neymar did play.

-Santos struggled away to Inter at the weekend and have only won 1 game so far this season.

-However, Santos, like eventual champions Corinthians, priorotised the Copa Libertadores over their league campaign and generally fielded weakened teams in Serie A.

-In Botafogo league games, 8/9 have contained at least 3 goals.

-At home to who I think currently look like the best team in Brazil, Fluminense, Botafogo held their own and gained a credible draw.

-Botafofo, from what I’ve seen, are a wildcard and can beat anyone on their day (see their win at Inter).

-Bota usually score and concede, but with Santos missing key attackers, both teams to score isn’t as attractive as it normally would be.

Conclusion: I’m hoping to see 3 goals, but with Santos missing players and generally low on confidence, the best bet seems to be Botafogo draw no bet.

Recommendation: Botafogo DNB (5/4)

Sao Paulo vs Vasco da Gama:

-Both teams are missing a lot of players due to the upcoming Olympics.

-Except for when they played cup occupied Coritiba, every Sao Paulo (league) home game has gone under 2.5 goals (1-0 each time).

-Matchups between these two rarely contain more than 2 goals.

Conclusion: Should be scrappy affair with few goals – 1-0 to Sao Paulo sounds about right.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (9/10)

Results: Gremio came from a goal down to win 3-1, Botafogo drew 0-0 and Sao Paulo lost 1-0 at home to Vasco.

2 wins, 1 void.

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