Brazilian Serie B – 31/07/12

31 Jul

Criciuma vs Guarani

-Criciuma are top of the table, while Guarani currently occupy 15th position.

-For what it counts, this fixture twice contained at least 3 goals last season.

-This season, at least 3 goals were scored in 5/6 Criciuma home (league) games.

-Home or away, Criciuma’s last 5 games have each contained at least 3 goals.

-However, only 2 out of Guarani’s last five away games have gone over 2.5 goals

-Of further concern is the fact that Guarani have only scored in 2 of those 5 away games.

-Criciuma have scored and conceded in their last five games – a positive for over goals and BTTS bettors.

Conclusion: You can’t bank on Guarani scoring, but Criciuma are (understandably) short priced and Asian handicap prices are not available on anything other than -1. Now I am tempted to do that and wouldn’t talk you out of it, but, last game aside, Criciuma often win by a solitary goal. The stats for an over 2.5 are good enough for me.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (3/4)

Small stakes double recommendation: Pair with over 2.5 in Goias – ABC (2/1)

Results The main bet reaps profit as Criciuma win 2-1, but Goias could only draw 1-1 so the small stakes double goes down.

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