JCLaLiga bets for Brazil – 10/11 November 2012

9 Nov

Atletico GO v Santos

Already relegated Atletico now have nothing to play for but pride, while 2011 Copa Libertadores winners Santos mathematically cannot qualify for next season’s edition of South America’s premier competition, but can still lose their Copa Sudamericano qualifying slot if results were to go against them.

With the above in mind, it seems most sensible to back Santos – 1 in the Asian handicp markets as they have something to play for and, perhaps crucially, possess gifted forward Neymar – who scored a hat-trick in his last game.

However, though I’d expect Santos – 1 AH to be a push at worst, sometimes a team with nothing to play for can take to the field without inhibition and produce a shock result. Now I’m not saying that Atletico will win and know that Santos have a strong defence, but they can score and over 2.5 goals is also a bet with merit.

In conclusion, it’s a hard choice to make and I’ve opted to split stakes and place two bets – after all, even if Atletico can’t score we know that Neymar can net three!

Recommendations: Santos – 1 Asian handicap (2.06) and over 2.5 goals (1.8)

Palmeiras v Fluminense

Copa do Brasil winners Palmeiras, currently 18th in the Serie A standings, are seven points adrift from safety with four games to play. Given this scenario, the Sao Paulo based club has to adopt a must win attitude in every remaining fixture.

Fluminense, league leaders by eight points, have scored at least once in their last ten away games and boast impressive offensive firepower such as Thiago Neves, Wellington Nem, Rafael Sobis and top scorer Fred.
In conclusion, given the hosts need to attack and the visitors effectiveness at doing the same, over 2.5 goals looks like the best bet.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.91)

America Natal v Criciuma

I’m sure that most South American football gamblers are aware of Criciuma and the amount of times that their games go over 2.5 goals (42 times out of 64 in all competitions), but if you’re not this game should prove to be a good example.

Recently top of the Serie B table with one foot in Serie A, the attack minded Criciuma have lost their last two games and now occupy third position. With the top four promoted to Serie A, Paulo Comelli’s charges are still well positioned to join Brazil’s elite. But with fifth placed Sao Caetano only four points adrift and three games to play, Criciuma need six points to guarantee promotion and will go for three tonight.

America Natal (or American RN as some bookmakers have them listed), who drew their last home game 4-4, currently occupy 8th position in Serie B and, with both promotion and relegation impossible, have nothing to play for.

In conclusion, only Criciuma have something to play for and while I expect them to win, the seasonal favourite of over goals look like the best bet. After all, ABC’s last four home games finished 4-4, 3-1, 2-1 and 3-3.

Recommendation: Over 2.5, 3 goals Asian line (1.81)

Click here to follow JC on Twitter and here for round 11 Spanish La Liga betting previews 


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