Friday’s La Liga preview: 2012/13 – round 15

6 Dec

Nava despiar

Espanyol v Sevilla

In a match I refused to bet on, Sevilla – without the influential duo of Negredo and Rakitic – lost 2-1 at home to Valladolid last Monday evening. I had privately thought the game would end in a 1-1 draw, but with visitors scoring twice within the first twelve minutes and Medel’s second half red card it was always going to end in an away win.

Sevilla recently announced her worst financial year since the 2001/02 season, with a projected 15,000,000 needed from player sales. Winger Navas won’t go anywhere, so Negredo seems the most likely to leave – and who would score the goals then?

Espanyol, who have only scored thirteen times in fourteen (league) games, struggle to score goals. Last Sunday afternoon, in the hard to judge noon kick off slot, Espanyol and their new boss, Javier Aguirre, ground out a 0-0 result in a surprisingly entertaining game away to Granada.

Very rarely the case – in fact I hate to endure scoreless games unless I benefit fiscally – but with my with my never oppose a new boss in his first game theory and subsequent Espanyol + 0.25 bet in mind, I was happy to see the game end 0-0.

Aguirre, happy his new team didn’t concede in Granada, will, like most managers who take over a club that’s bottom of the table, continue to concentrate on shoring up the defence – anything but losing to start with.

With the above in mind, I’d expect Espanyol, who recently lost 6-1 on aggregate (3-1 and 3-0) to Sevilla in the Copa del Rey, to try and grind out a 0-0 draw or a 1-0 win on Friday.

The bad news is that Sevilla boss Michel and his players will be hurting after Monday’s defeat to Valladolid, and will therefore have a point to prove of sorts. However, the Rojiblancos, who will miss key players (midfielder) Medel and (striker) Negredo on Friday evening, currently have a poor away record of one win, two draws and four defeats in 2012/13 Liga BBVA matches – with a paltry five goals scored.

In conclusion, I do fear Friday night time slots and their regularity in going against what is expected in goal counts and match results, but the head to head and seasonal statistics suggest that Friday’s game will go over 2.5 goals and I’m opposing that market in my pick.

Also, stats don’t account for the change in momentum a new manager brings and I expect that to work in my favour – it’s just my way of choosing.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (1.91)

Whatever you choose to bet on, enjoy the game and don’t forget to follow me on Twitter!

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