Saturday’s La Liga preview: 2012/13 – round 15

7 Dec

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Real Sociedad v Getafe

Allowing me to win my over 2.5 goals bet with ease, though most certainly aided by an early red card for their opponents, Valencia, Real Sociedad defeated Los Che 5-2 at the Mestalla. It’s hard to know what would have happened if Jonas hadn’t seen red, but La Real have impressed in recent away games and I was very confident that they’d at least score last weekend.

Getafe, to my displeasure (I expected Malaga to win 1-0), defeated Malaga 1-0 at the Alfonso Perez in round fourteen. Netting just before the sixty minute mark, Lopo was the Azulones scorer.

Today I would expect La Real, who have four wins, one draw and two defeats at home, to beat Getafe. However, Getafe, with three wins, one draw and three defeats on their travels, are not a bad away side and have scored in six out of seven of those games.

Therefore, I am very tempted with both teams to score or even BTTS and Real Sociedad win, but it seems smarter to just take the home win at a fair even money price, especially as La Real have only conceded three times in seven home games.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad (2.0)

Malaga v Granada

With a languid performance including missing a handful of clear cut chances, Malaga lost 1-0 away to Getafe last weekend, giving me my only loser of round fourteen in the process.

Round fifteen, I hope, will allow me to get a winner in a Malaga game as gun shy Granada – who drew a blank in a scoreless draw at home to Espanyol last weekend – visit La Rosaleda this Saturday afternoon.

In conclusion, this is the best La Liga defence against the worst attack, but it is also a derby game and because of that Granada will probably shock us all and score! However, rather than both teams to score, I opt for over 2.5 goals. Of course, I do expect Malaga to win if you’re wondering – I Just prefer goals.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.92)

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Valladolid v Real Madrid

With Ebert and Oscar providing the goals to put Valladolid 2-0 up after only twelve minutes, coach Djukic and his charges held out to impressively defeat Sevilla 2-1 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan last Monday night.

Jose Mourinho, who will soon meet with president Perez to talk about his future, saw his Real Madrid side defeat City rivals Atletico 2-0 at the Bernabeu in round fourteen – enough for me to win the Real – 1.25 bet.

Ronaldo and Ozil were the Blancos scorers last weekend, with the former also netting during the 4-1 midweek defeat of Ajax in the UEFA Champions League.

In conclusion, Jose rested a few players midweek and they, along with Ronaldo and co, should be raring to go this weekend. Consider also that Real lost their last game and will therefore have a point to prove today.

However, the Valladolid coach, Djukic, likes to keep things tight at the back, so I’m not going for over 3.5 goals, but Real to score in both halves as the price is fair.

Recommendation: Real Madrid to score in both halves (1.83)

Osasuna v Valencia

As I expected they would, Jose Luis Mendilibar’s Osasuna defeated Rayo Vallecano in Pamplona last Friday evening. Kike Sola, with the only goal of the game, netted to move Osa up from nineteenth to sixteenth in the 2012/13 Liga BBVA standings.

Valencia, though hampered by an early red card, lost their undefeated home record in a staggering 5-2 defeat at the hands of Real Sociedad last Saturday. Just over an hour after this result, Che boss Pellegrino – who’d only been in the job for a few months – was sacked.

Former Athletic Bilbao, Espanyol and Villarreal boss Ernesto Valverde is the new Valencia boss. Valverde, who is a respected trainer, will play direct football and focus on counter attacking.

In conclusion, the never oppose a new boss in his first game theory comes into play, but with five out of the last six Osasuna home games going under 2.5 goals and six out of the last seven Valencia away games the same, under 2.5 goals looks like the bet. After all, Valverde will want to keep things tight and avoid defeat in his first game.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (1.72)

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