Copa del Rey previews: 2012/13 – 12 December

11 Dec


I had wanted to cut and paste Marca’s lineups into these brief previews, but for one I’m not sure if that’s allowed and secondly I don’t know how to do it (normally just save to desktop from google images and then add as media in wordpress)!

There are what I consider good bets in here, but don’t be afraid to form your own logic and remember not to place big stakes on erratic cup matches! If you don’t want to bet pre-match then you can always try my tactic (suitable for the games involving Athletic, Barca and Real tonight) of waiting out 15 mins before betting on over 1 first half goal line at a 1.8 mnimum. If you think about it, there are few occasions when there isn’t at least one goal before half time in a Real or Barca match, so you should get a push worst case. This is the cup, though, so might not work as well as it does in La Liga.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy this brief read, and good luck if you bet.



Athletic Bilbao v Eibar

Due to Athletic’s re-arranged Europa League fixture in Israel a couple of weeks ago and general fixture congestion, this third round, second leg clash is being played tonight. The first leg ended 0-0.

Confirmed line-ups:

Athletic (4-3-3):Raul; Ramalho, Ekiza, Amorebieta, Aurtenetxe, San Jose; Ibai Gomez, De Marcos, Herrera, Muniain, and Llorente

Eibar (4-2-3-1):Eleven players you haven’t heard of!

Betting verdict:

Athletic have improved recently, and with such a strong team out tonight I think Athletic – 1.5 AH and over 2.5, 3 goal line are your bets here.


Cordoba v Barcelona

Currently in 11th position in the league table, Cordoba are a Segunda team. Last season, under the current Rayo coach, Cordoba lost the playoff final to Valladolid. Unlike his predecessor, Cordoba’s current coach, Rafael Berges, plays defensive football.

Expected line-ups:

Cordoba (4-2-3-1): Saizar, J Fernandez, Gaspar, Kiko, Fuentes, L Garrai, Caballero, Dubarbier, F Vico, L Silva and Rennella.

Barca (4-3-3): Pinto, D Alves, Pique, Mascherano, J Alba, Xavi, A Song, Thiago, Tello, Villa and Pedro

Betting verdict:

Despite being a defense minded side, Cordoba beat Real Sociedad 2-0 in the first leg and drew 2-2 in the second at San Sebastian. Therefore, we know they can score against Primera teams.

Although Barca will start a lot of their stars on the bench, Villa and Pedro should start and Messi, such is his thirst to play every game, will likely enter the fray as a substitute. My friend and Cordoba fan Spanish Dave (imaginative, I know) thinks that Barca will score three plus in the first leg.

Dave knows his team better than I do, so to incorporate his thoughts I’ve picked out the following bets for your consideration:

Barca – 1 goal at 8/11, Barca – 1.5 Asian handicap at 3/4 and Barca total goals over 2.5 at 5/6.

Both teams to score can happen but 8/11 is a bit short. Think I’d rather do over 3.5 goals at 5/6, but I have opted for Barca – 1.5 AH with a view to goal betting in-play.

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Mallorca v Sevilla

Well, unless you’re new to Spanish football you’ll know these two teams. Including two Copa fixtures (0-0 and 1-1 v Depor), Mallorca haven’t won in their last twelve games. Sevilla, although they lost three games in a row a few weeks ago, are back in decent form having dispatched Espanyol 3-0 and 3-1 in the last round of the Copa del Rey.

Expected line-ups:

Mallorca (4-2-3-1): Aouate, X Navarro, Conceicao, Fontas, Kevin, Marti, Nsue, M Fernandez, Giovani, Alfaro and Arizmendi

Sevilla (4-2-3-1): Lopez, F Navarro, Botia, Fazio, Coke, Medel, Kondogbia, Reyes, Rakitic, Navas and Negredo.

Betting verdict:

As the first leg is in Mallorca, where under 2.5 goals is a common occurrence, a low scoring clash is expected. However, with Mallorca winless in twelve games and if Negredo starts for the Rojiblancos, Sevilla draw no bet is is probably the best choice at 8/11.


Atletico Madrid v Getafe

In the league, Atleti won this fixture 3-1 a couple of months ago. Since then the Azulones have improved defensively and Atleti coach Diego Simeone spoke of this in a recent interview.

Simeone indicated that Falcao will play a part tonight, but with Atleti playing Barca in the league this weekend, I wouldn’t expect the Columbian to start – or last more than sixty minutes in the unlikely event he does.

Getafe will simply want to be in with a chance when the second leg is played at the Alfonso Perez, and will be nowhere near as easy to beat as Deportivo were for Atleti at the weekend.

Expected line-ups:

Atletico (4-2-3-1): Asenjo, Juanfran, Miranda, Godin, F Luis, M Suarez, Gabi, R Garcia, Koke, Adrian and D Costa.

Getafe (4-2-3-1): Codina, M Torres, Alexis, Rafa, Mane, Lacen, J Rodriguez, Gavilan, D Castro, Sarabia and Alvaro.

Betting verdict:

The big question is will Falcao start or play any part in this game? If he does start, then Atleti, with Barca at the weekend, will surely try and get a couple of first half goals in order to defend the tie out and rest Falcao for the trip to Camp Nou.

Atleti without Falcao are simply a hard working counter attack team that won’t score a lot of goals unless their opponent constantly attacks with reckless abandon. Getafe aren’t likely to do that. Therefore, although I’d say Getafe have a 7/10 chance of scoring, the over 3.5 goals market is hard to trust and better assessed in-play.

Like the Real Madrid game tonight, I’m going to bet just before the match starts or in-play when I know who starts/how likely 3-4 goals looks.

If you can’t wait and must bet pre-match, then time of Atleti’s first goal before 35:00 appeals at 5/6 with Bet365. Otherwise, the Atleti – 1 handicap has now shortened into a poor 1.68 and is not worth doing at that price. Both can score and 2.0 for that to happen is fair with Boyles, but Ateti HT/FT is evens or above with most firms – and that seems more likely.


Celta v Real Madrid

Last time these two teams met Real won 2-0 at the Bernabeu. It was a poor (league) game and Celta played defensively. Tonight, you’d expect Celta to attack more in tonight’s first leg Copa game, simply because they’re the home team this time.Expected line-ups

Celta (4-2-3-1): Short of time here, but pretty much their regular eleven – including De Lucas and Aspas.

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1) Casillas, Nacho, S Ramos, Pepe, Arbeloa, X Alonso, Essien, Ronaldo, Modric, Callejon and Benzema

Betting verdict:

Whatever their actual starting eleven, you’d expected Real Madrid to win here, but for goal betting we need to know who starts. With that in mind I’m happy to bet in-play or just before kickoff, but if you must bet pre-match then Real – 1 Asian handicap (1.71 with Pinnacle) should be a push worst case, while Real Madrid half time/full time (2.08 with Betfair, evens with several regular bookies) rarely loses.

Finally, if you want some kind of acca I’d go for over 1.5 team goals for Athletic Bilbao, Barcelona and Real Madrid. This pays 1.22/1 with Bet365.


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