Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 16

13 Dec

pedroleon

Getafe v Osasuna

The Azulones lost 3-0 away to city rivals Atletico in the Copa midweek, but gained a credible draw (and were moments away from winning) away to Real Sociedad in round 15.

Osasuna also played in the cup midweek and lost 2-0 at home to Valencia. Days earlier, in the league, they lost the same fixture 1-0. Valencia were simply the better team on both occasions, though in part they were revitalised by their new boss Valverde; got to impress the new boss etc.

In conclusion, you have to favour Getafe to beat an Osasuna side who have won one, drawn one and lost five on their travels, but with both teams tired and Getafe only scoring nine goals in seven home games and Osasuna notching a mere five on their travels in 2012/3, under 2.5 goals is also a good bet.

Worth a small punt: Getafe win and under 2.5 goals (3.9)

adurizymunian

Mallorca v Athletic Bilbao

After a great start to the season, Mallorca, limited as they are, are in terrible form and without a win in their last thirteen games. Last weekend the Barralets lost 4-0 away to Levante, while midweek they lost 5-0 at home to Sevilla in the Copa del Rey.
Athletic did, through an Aduriz goal, defeat Celta Vigo 1-0 at San Mames in round 15, but they fielded a very strong team in their midweek Basque derby cup game with Eibar and embarrassingly drew 1-1 to exit the completion in front of their home fans.
So, it’s crisis club vs crisis club! Both teams to score with each needing to put an impressive performance in, particularly after their midweek results? Maybe, but Mallorca are the lesser side and have shown no hunger or fight at all in recent games and, if you’re going to bet, it seems wiser to chance an upset. However, I’ll take a small punt on something more ambitious than the straight win.

Worth a small punt: Athletic HT/FT (5.18)

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Granada v Real Sociedad

Goal shy Granada blew several clear cut chances – including missing an open goal – in their 4-0 hammering at Malaga last weekend, but didn’t actually play that badly in all honesty! In a game I fancied both teams to score in but opted for the seemingly sensible pick of Real Sociedad to win instead, La Real duly drew 1-1 at home to Getafe!

In conclusion, I’d expect Real Socieded to score in Granada but am not sure if the hosts will do the same. However, beyond putting La Real over 0.5 goals in a double with Valladolid to score, I’m not going to bet on this game.

negredo

Sevilla v Malaga

Malaga didn’t play in the cup midweek, but impressively destroyed local rivals Granada 4-0 last weekend. Sevilla drew 2-2 away to Espanyol in round 15, but the Catalans had a new manager and that often affects results. Days later, in the Copa del Rey, Sevilla destroyed Mallorca 5-0 on the Island.

In conclusion, 5/7 Sevilla home games have gone over 2.5 goals, but only 1/7 Malaga away fixtures have passed the same mark. I do fancy over 2.5 goals in this match with Negredo back from injury and scoring, but on paper it’s a bad bet as Malaga have the league’s best defence with only six goals conceded out of fifteen games!

Maybe the fact that Malaga have had more rest than their hosts will be an equaliser, but the Anchovies haven’t won a road game since they beat Zaragoza three months ago. So, Sevilla – who have won four, drawn one and lost two at home, to win is the statistical pick I feel I have to make.

Recommendation: Sevilla (2.25)

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