Monday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 16

17 Dec

manucho

Deportivo v Valladolid

Not so super Depor were destroyed 6-0 by a Falcao inspired Atletico Madrid last weekend, losing their record of scoring in every road game in the process. This was the thirteenth time that Deportivo has failed to win a La Liga game in their last fourteen attempts – a statistic that leaves the northern club bottom of the 2012/13 Liga BBVA standings.

Valladolid, who twice took the lead through Manucho, eventually lost 3-2 at home to Real Madrid last weekend. Overall, they played very well and bar an excellent Ozil free kick would have gained a deserved point.

In conclusion, I’d like to go for Valladolid to win, but Depor have got their defence back and Ebert is missing for the visitors. Both teams can score, though, and Djukic’s boys have netted in 6/7 league road games this season, but with Ebert out and crisis ridden Depor (surely) looking to keep things tight this evening, the hard to beat 10th placed Valladolid + 0.25 looks like a safer play compared to anything goal related.

Recommendation: Valladolid + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.96)

rubencastroinjured

Celta Vigo v Real Betis

Home team Celta lost 1-0 away to Athletic Bilbao last weekend, but stunningly defeated Real Madrid 2-1 in their first leg Copa del Rey clash days later. Heartbreakingly, I had thought about putting a few quid on former Xerez striker and column favourite Bermejo to open the scoring at 12/1 in the half time interval, but decided to leave it because I thought the rain may stop and either Aspas scores or Real win 1-0! Oh well….

Betis, of course, played extremely well in defeat to Barca at the Benito Villamarin last weekend. Naturally, I was delighted to see current favourite Betis player Ruben Castro score their goal. He was, as I pointed out, well worth a punt at 4/1 anytime given his record against Barca.

In conclusion, with both teams attack minded and BTTS having won in Celta’s last three home games and Betis’ last three away, we have a clear betting pick.

However – and it’s a fairly big one – Ruben Castro is listed as seriously doubtful for this game (as is Joel Campbell) so I would wait and see if he starts before doing this bet. Betis can score without him, Molina is a good striker, but Mr Castro accounts for over 40% of his teams goals.

What might work in our favour is if Celta are distracted after beating Real – not something they’ll do often, less so than Betis, for example. Perhaps even Betis + 0.25 is the best bet should our boy not start.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (1.75)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: