Thursday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 17

19 Dec

obafemi

Rayo Vallecano v Levante

With a hard working display against an out of sorts Valencia at the Mestalla last weekend, Rayo shockingly won 1-0 after former Che forward Alejandro Dominguez converted a late penalty.

Levante, through a first half Ruben goal, gained a little revenge over cup rivals Zaragoza by winning 1-0 at La Romareda in their round 16 clash. Levante, if they want to progress to the next round of the cup, will have to win here again in January.

Anyway, today’s fixture is a hard call. Why? Well, although Rayo won at Valencia, they didn’t look like scoring in open play, couldn’t score at home to Zaragoza and failed to net over two legs v Las Palmas in the Copa Del Rey.

The Madrid based side also struggled with their shooting at home to Mallorca a couple of weeks ago – leaving it late before sealing the points through Leo. So, all in all, I don’t trust Rayo to score today – and with fair reason.

Levante, however, have scored in four of their last five away games and actually won 2-1 here last season. Therefore, one notable conclusion I can find in this match is that Levante will likely score.

Under 2.5 goals could well be a decent call, but the value, considering that they’ve only lost at home to Real Madrid, Barcelona and (shockingly) Zaragoza, is most certainly with Rayo – 0.25 at a 2.0 (even money) price.

However, for my money, but this feels like a betting for the sake of it game and I’ll likely leave it alone.

imagesvaleron

Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna

Javier Aguirre’s Espanyol drew for the third time in a row last Sunday – staggeringly, away to Real Madrid! Whilst Los Blancos problems are well documented enough for me to have no need to discuss them, a 2-2 draw wasn’t in anyone’s thoughts and massive credit must go be given to Aguirre and his charges for their never beaten attitude at the Bernabeu.

Deportivo, with defenders Marchena and Ze Castro back to marshal a back four that had leaked goals at an alarming rate during their absence, had at least two easy chances to win their (fairly dire) home match with Valladolid on Monday night but could only draw 0-0.

In conclusion, you’d expect Espanyol to win given home advantage, but then long term followers of La Liga will be aware that the Catalans have a habit of losing at home to teams who need the points more than they do – and nobody needs points more than bottom club Deportivo right now.

However, instead of the straight Depor win – and keeping in mind that Espanyol have yet to lose under Aguirre – I’m going for Deportivo + 0.5, which would yield profit if Espanyol were to draw for the fourth time in a row.

images (1)

Real Sociedad v Sevilla

In a game devoid of clear cut chances, La Real drew 0-0 away to Granada last weekend. It was their second away draw of the season, with the Basque club currently occupying ninth position in the 2012/13 Liga BBVA standings.

Sevilla, despite spurning chance after chance in an eventful first half, managed to lose 2-0 at home to Malaga last weekend. Negredo, scarily competent at missing easy chances, was the guiltiest party – hitting the post with an open goal.

Today’s game is a hard call for sure. You would expect Real Sociedad, who have four wins, two draws and two defeats to defeat a Sevilla side who have failed to win eleven of their last twelve (league) away games.

But then La Real have drawn their last two home games and are therefore hard to fully trust. Also, Sevilla have had a man sent off in pretty much every game recently, but if they can avoid that today they’re certainly capable of a draw or better.

For those of you that like the over/under goal markets, six out of the last seven Real Sociedad home games have gone under 2.5 goals, while the last four Sevilla away fixtures have gone over 2.5!

With six out of seven La Real home games level at half time and 4/7 Sevilla away the same, a half time draw is probably a better statistical pick at 2.3.

All in all, the value is with Real Sociedad – 0.25 at 2.08, but I’m undecided enough to bet in-play or not at all. Hopefully, though, if you’re betting I’ve at least given you fair arguments to consider when making your choice.

Good luck

JC

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: