Wednesday’s Copa del Rey previews: 2012/13 – 9th January 2013

9 Jan

COPADELREY

Sevilla v Mallorca (5-0 on aggregate)

-Games between these two usually contain three goals or more

-Sevilla won the first leg of this tie 5-0 so this is virtually a dead rubber

-Manu del Moral will start, but otherwise Sevilla are fielding a weakened team.

-Mallorca will field some of their regulars, with Hemed muted to start.

Conclusion

At 5-0 you would expect this to go against previous results and contain less than three goals. However, if Mallorca were to go a goal up, Sevilla could bring Negredo etc off the bench and you could be busted on the unders.

I like Hemed to score at anytime (he netted in Seville in the league) and have considered plus handicapping Mallorca for a main bet, but in the end have opted for both teams to score (1.85 with Betway).

Projected Marca.com line-ups

Real Zaragoza v Levante (1-0 on aggregate)

-Zara won the first leg 1-0

-Days after the first leg, as expected, Levante won 1-0 at Zaragoza in the league!

-In all competitions, the last four clashes between these two have gone under 2.5 goals – with 1-0 the most popular score.

Conclusion

Under 2.5 goals at 1.73 with Bet365 is surely the conclusion that most people would come to and you should probably follow suit, but with my own money and considering that this is a cup tie in which the away team must score, I’ve decided on both teams to score (1.95 with Stan James) this time. A risky play perhaps, but it goes into a treble and I can accept losing a fiver!

Projected Marca.com line-ups

Real Madrid v Celta Vigo (1-2 on aggregate)

-Real played very poorly in the first leg of this game, which was 0-0 at half time and 2-1 to Celta at full time.

-Celta, though they didn’t score in either league game, lost 2-0 to Real at the Bernabeu and 1-0 to Atletico in the Vicente Calderon – therefore, they are experienced in holding the big teams to low scoring games at their manor.

-However, Celta lost 3-1 away to Barca and, given that Real need to score to progress to the nest round today, are going to have to attack if Real score first – therefore, with Mourinho intent on going for it from the offset and Real missing defenders, a high scoring game seems likely this time.

-Though not 100% confirmed at the time of writing, Ronaldo is suspended for Real’s trip to Osasuna at the weekend and should therefore start tonight.

Conclusion

Despite only five goals between these two in their last two meetings, considering the form Real Madrid are in, the defenders they are missing, the goalkeeper issues and the regularity in which they concede, I think that we’ll witness four or more goals tonight and have bet on two of them coming in the first half.

Quite honestly, however, providing my in-play judgement decides that it’s very likely, I’ll bet on more goals at half time if my bet fails.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 first half goals at 1.83 with Bet 365

Projected Marca.com line-ups

Personal bets:

My single:£20 on over 1.5 first half goals in Real v Celta at 1.83

My treble: £5 Both teams to score in all three games at just over 5/1 with Bet365

Anytime scorer suggestions at decent prices (if they start)

Mallorca: Hemed (4.0) with Paddy Power

Levante: Martins (3.5) with Bet365

Celta: Aspas (6.0) and Bermejo (9.0) with Ladbrokes (both much bigger prices compared to other bookies)

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