Tuesday’s Copa del Rey preview: Real Madrid v Valencia

14 Jan

images (7)

Real Madrid v Valencia

Click for projected Marca line-ups

The statistical viewpoint:

-The score was 1-1 when these two last met – and Valencia, who had a legit Soldado goal ruled out, should have won.

-At the Bernabeu, the last five clashes between these two have gone under 2.5 goals.

-Los Che have only scored once in their last five visits to the Bernabeu.

-Out of their last six games, Real have only won two.

-Previously a terrible away team, Valencia , in all competitions, have won their last four road games.

Simple stats betting conclusion: Under 2.5 goals (3.0) and Valencia + 1.5 AH (2.08) look like the best bets.

Other relevant angles and info:

-Unless they are facing a very weak team at home, Real are getting close to being un-backable in La Liga.

-Real and her players know that winning the league is out of the question and their lack of fight in tough situations (Osasuna, for example) has been clear to see in recent games.

-However, Jose and his charges are not eighteen points behind Barca in the Copa del Rey and must win something this season.

-Given the above and the fact that Ronaldo, who was suspended for Real’s trip to Osasuna, will likely play tonight, expect to see a very different Real Madrid to the one you’ve seen in the league recently.

-As this is a first leg cup tie and one Real want to win, expect Los Blancos to try to put the game to bed at the Bernabeu.

-Valencia are good at attacking set pieces (Soldado, Valdez and Ramis are all good in the air), while Real Madrid are poor at defending them.

My bet selection process:

There is massive value about under 2.5 goals at 3.0, but Real want to win this cup and therefore have greater motivation than what they’ve shown in recent league games, Ronaldo is 99% likely to start and well rested, Valencia can score here on current form and Real will look for at least two goals to take to the Mestalla for the second leg.

I like Valencia + 1.5 from past viewing, but am fearful of taking it due to what I’ve just written and the immediate reaction Real need to provide in front of their home faithful after the Osasuna game. Real – 1.75 AH is the just over evens handicap bet punters generally look for, but probably a half win tonight, I think.

All in all, I think this goes against the goal stats but won’t back over 2.5 at 1.43 or BTTS at 1.73. Instead, at 1.83, I’ll go with a fast Real Madrid start and back them HT/FT.

My bet, providing Real actually lead at HT, means I can be happy with a 1-0 or 2-0 finish and won’t be left tearing my hair out if I went for over goals and the stats pick of under 2.5 were to win!

Of course, all of the logic I can think of is littered throughout this article so don’t be afraid to make your own choice instead of following mine. If anything, I’m as much an advisor as tipper – and that’s how I like it.

Good luck

JC

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