Wednesday’s Copa del Rey previews: 2012/13 – 23rd January

23 Jan

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Sevilla v Real Zaragoza (2nd leg)

Click for projected Marca line-ups

-The first leg, in Zaragoza, was a dire affair which ended 0-0.

-However, Sevilla had a few excellent chances to score and really should have won.

-Unai Emery, the current Sevilla coach, is undefeated since taking the reins.

-Emery has drawn both of his games in charge of Los Rojiblancos, scoring one and conceding one.

-Zaragoza, in the league, have won more road games than home games.

-Sevilla have stuttered at home in recent games, but they won their last fixture 1-0 against Osasuna.

-With a new coach who is making his home debut tonight, it’s hard to fully trust how to factor in Sevilla’s previous home games.

-Sevilla have beaten Zaragoza in their last five meetings at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan – scoring at least three times in each game.

Conclusion

You have to fear Zaragoza’s ability to grind out results on the road, with Zara + 1.25 (2.18) and 1.5 (1.88) both fair shouts given that. However, although both bets would cover a one goal Sevilla win, I expect Sevilla and their new boss to win by two goals, but don’t see any value in a -1 and simply opt to observe or bet in play.

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Valencia v Real Madrid (2nd leg)

Click for projected Marca line-ups

-Real put in a poor performance but still managed to win the first leg by a 2-0 score.

-Valencia outplayed Real at the Bernabeu and deserved at least a draw for their efforts.

-After spurning several chances in Madrid, Valencia attacked Real from the offset when the two met in La Liga last weekend but got destroyed on the counter attack, losing 5-0.

-At the Mestalla, the last four clashes between these two have contained five goals or more, with the last six yielding at least three.

-Soldado, who has a minor injury, is not expected to start for Los Che.

Conclusion

I’d like to go for over goals or both teams to score as Valencia need to overturn a two goal deficit and Real, as we saw at the weekend, can score on the counter.

However, Valencia’s mental state has to be questioned after their 0-5 home defeat to Real. I mean, what kind of tactics will the Che coach, Valverde, apply after that?

Go ‘hell for leather’ from the offset and get beaten heavily again or try and keep it tight, snare a goal in each half and try to take it to penalties?

I think that BTTS is probably a good bet in theory, but Real don’t need to score unless Valencia score – and Valencia couldn’t net in the last two meetings, so 1.55 is a terrible price.

All in all, as much as it will disappoint you, I can’t see the forest for the tree’s and as such am not placing a bet. Hopefully, though. the trend of over goals continues at the Mestalla.

If you really must bet, can’t choose yourself and are happy to bet on teams that don’t need to win on the night (Real), a Sevilla and Real Madrid double could be for you.

I’m more interested in betting on tomorrow’s Copa games, but good luck if you bet tonight and enjoy the action.

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