Sunday’s (brief) La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 21

27 Jan

Once again, apologies that today’s previews are short and rushed, but I’ve hit a wall in terms of burnout this week and must take it easy. I’ll come back to the late games later!

Best of luck

JC

images (7)

Real Madrid v Getafe

-Di Maria, who has been in great form recently, was reported as missing this game but is now listed as a starter by Marca!

-Real Madrid played in the Copa midweek and, at least for those who played, have had less rest compared to Getafe.

-Los Blanocs will play Barca in the Copa midweek.

-Time of first Real Madrid goal is too low at 25:00 (29/30 mins and I’d do it).

-Time of first match goal is also too low at 20:00.

Conclusion:

I can’t be sure if we’ll get the Real Madrid that destroyed Valencia 5-0 in their last league game or the one that stuttered to a draw with Osasuna. Also, as mentioned above, Real will play Barca in the Copa midweek – and that will certainly be their priority over today’s game with Getafe.

However, the 12:00 games are crazy (I expect Getafe to score but wouldn’t bet on that) and with the time of first match and/or Real Madrid goal too low (see above), I’ve gone for a medium stake on over 1.5 first half goals at 1.83 – hoping that Getafe can net a surprise early goal with Real (and most of Spain) half asleep, or that Jose’s boys try to put the game to bed in the first half with Barca in mind midweek.

leo

Rayo Vallecano v Real Betis

-Good home team vs good away team.

-Rayo will miss their best player Leo Baptistao, but attacking midfielder/forward Alejandro Dominguez is back after missing Rayo’s defeat in Granada last weekend.

-Betis played in the Copa midweek.

-Rayo beat Betis in Seville earlier this season.

Conclusion:

A draw is not a bad shout all things considered, but I’ll go with home advantage and the fact that, as well as the pre –mentioned Rayo win in Seville, the Madrid based side beat Betis home and away last season.

I refuse to bet against my own team, but Rayo are my recommendation – with Ladbrokes listed as offering a generous 2.03 on Rayo – 0.25 (half loss if Rayo draw).

adurizymunian

Athletic Bilbao v Atletico Madrid

-Falcao is injured and will not start.

-Atleti played Betis in the cup midweek, drawing 1-1.

-Athletic beat Atleti 3-0 at San Mames last season, but have been easily beaten by Atleti since Simeone took charge.

-As above – one of those games was at the Vicente Calderon earlier this season, where Atleti won 4-0.

-Athletic have been poor in recent home games, with consecutive losses to Zaragoza and Rayo.

-With the only exception being their trip to Camp Nou, 6 out of the last 7 league Atleti away games have gone under 2.5 goals

-In all competitions, 5 out of Athletic’s last 7 home games have contained less than three goals.

Conclusion

I don’t trust Athletic to win, even if Atletico played in the Copa midweek – and with Falcao out under 2.5 goals looks like the best bet to me.

images (5)

Mallorca v Malaga

-Malaga played in the cup midweek, losing 4-2 at home to Barca.

-Statistically, Malaga have the best defence in the league.

-On the Island, the last 3 head to head clashes between these two have gone under 2.5 goals.

-The last three (league) Mallorca home games have gone under 2.5 goals.

-The last five (league) Malaga away games have gone under 2.5 goals.

Conclusion

I wouldn’t trust Malaga to win given their average (at best) away record, and I don’t fully trust Mallorca to win – even if Malaga played an extra game midweek – so it seems best to follow the stats and back under 2.5 goals.

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3 Responses to “Sunday’s (brief) La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 21”

  1. georgi mitchew January 27, 2013 at 12:15 pm #

    Follow you re. Rayo. Furthermore Betis pkayed quite hard natch against AM just 72 hours ago and 9 okayers is missing for todays match. GL and keep up the good work.

  2. georgi mitchew January 27, 2013 at 12:16 pm #

    – btw sorry for the blunders – my keyboard is shitty 🙂

    • JCLaLiga January 27, 2013 at 8:55 pm #

      No worries! Yes, extra game factor made it more in favour of a Rayo win. Well done and thanks for your comment.

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