Thursday’s Copa del Rey preview: 2012/13 – Atletico Madrid v Sevilla – First leg

31 Jan

negredo

Atletico Madrid v Sevilla

Click for projected Marca line-ups

-Falcao is no longer listed as injured, but is unlikely to start tonight.

-Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros have won every game played on home soil in 2012/13.

-As we’ve seen vs Betis in the last round and many times in the league this season, Atleti look for two goal leads and then shut up shop, so to speak.

-Sevilla are unbeaten under Emery, conceding only 1 goal in 4 games.

-While statistics relating to Sevilla’s away results are of less importance leveraged against those posted since Emery took charge, it’s still the same set of players – just with more confidence and desire to play for their boss.

-Sevilla’s last three away games – with Emery in charge of two – have all gone under 2.5 goals.

-Atleti’s last three home games have also contained 3 goals or less – all ending 2-0.

Conclusion

Well, it would take a brave man to back Sevilla considering Atleti’s home record. But with Falcao likely to miss out, Sevilla undefeated since Emery took charge and both teams being low scorers, under 2.5 goals looks like the best bet at 2.0 with blue square.

However, although this is the best conclusion I can come to for you, I want a relaxed evening after wagering more money than normal on last night’s Clasico and will abstain from pre-match betting tonight.

Lastly, for those looking for alternatives to the stressful unders bet, the draw at 3.8 (Stan James) and Sevilla + 0.75 (188bet) are worth consideration, while Negredo anytime (3.0, various) is the obvious choice is you’re looking for a decent priced anytime scorer.

Whatever you choose, best of luck!

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