Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 27

7 Mar

sergiogarcia

Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol

With Rayo generally strong at home this season, you’d think home win on first glance. However, considering that the Madrid based side have often been priced around 2.25 against lesser threats than Espanyol – who have beaten Rayo in their last three meetings – I’m ignoring the 2.02 on offer going for a shock upset and separate goals bet instead.

Rayo, after all, lost at home to both Zaragoza and Valladolid in 2012/13 Liga BBVA, so tasting defeat for the fourth time in a row against Espanyol is a fair punt for my money.

Recommendations: Over 2.5 goals (2.0), Espanyol (4.28)

saviola

Valladolid v Malaga

Can’t say I’m sure about this one. Valladolid are a decent home team but were exposed in a 3-0 home defeat to Atleti recently, and Malaga- with players like Isco, Joaquin and Saviola – have the offensive firepower to do the same.

However, with the Anchovies due to play Porto in the UEFA Champions League next week Pellegrini may opt to rest players, thus making Valladolid – 0.25 more attractive.

All in all, though I don’t think that Valladolid – 0.25 is worth the risk at 2.02 and wouldn’t rule out a 0-0 draw. Therefore, it’s a no bet game for my money.

messi

Barcelona v Deportivo La Coruna

It’s no secret that Barca have lost their last three games and look totally out of sync. Key to the Catalans game is their movement and speed of passing – both of which they’ve been sluggishly ineffective at recently.

However, and while Depor actually managed a clean sheet in their 0-0 draw at home to Rayo last weekend, Barca are hosting a team that is bottom of the table and this, in theory, is surely the perfect scenario to recover a little confidence in before Messi and co try and overturn a two goal deficit against AC Milan in the UEFA Champions League next week.

Of course, given the importance of the AC Milan game Barca may field a weakened team tonight, but after losing twice in a row against Real Madrid I’m gambling on the Catalans making a fast start in front of a home crowd that might just start waving white hankies if we don’t all get what we want.

Lastly, Barca can obviously be frustrated by well organised teams and I even considered a Depor + 2.25 handicap after recalling a 0-0 a few years ago, but I’ve chosen my angle and expect to win.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 first half goal line (1.875)

images (9)

Mallorca v Sevilla

Both teams won last week, with Sevilla crushing Celta 4-1 in Seville and Mallorca gaining three points in a match for the first time in 2013 when winning 2-1 at Granada.

Mallorca are not quite as bad now as they were when this happened, but last time they faced Sevilla on the Island it ended 0-5! Now, this was a cup game and Mallorca did win the second leg 2-1, but it was effectively a dead rubber and, overall, Sevilla have a very good recent record against the Islanders.

I like Sevilla to win today, but am mindful that they haven’t won a league road game in 2013 and prefer to bet on over 2.5 goals – a winning bet in two out the last three Mallorca home games, two out of the last three Sevilla away and five of the last six head to head clashes between the two.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (2.1)

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