Sunday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 27

7 Mar


Athletic Bilbao v Valencia

Athletic unexpectedly lost at home to Basque rivals Real Sociedad a couple of weeks ago, before unexpectedly winning away at Osasuna the week after. As such, are we to expect the unexpected today?!

What I can tell you is that Valencia – through a Soldado hat-trick – won 3-0 at San Mames last season – their third victory in a row at San Mames. Indeed, Valencia have not lost to Athletic since 2009, so the expected – in my opinion at least – is an away win.

However, we can’t ignore the fact that Valencia played PSG in Paris midweek – and their extra tiredness makes it hard to back what I want to in Valencia – 0.25.

Instead, bearing in mind that BTTS is too short at 1.6 and compensating for the noon Sunday timeslot, I’m taking a chance on over 2.5 goals – a winner in the last four Athletic home games and last five head to head clashes between the two.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goal line (1.8)


Levante v Getafe

Generally very good at home, Levante nevertheless lost to Osasuna in their last game at the Ciudad de Valencia. Notably, they also host Rubin Kazan in the Europa League days before this game.

Given the above, the good recent form of Getafe and the fact that they won here last season, I’m not prepared to bet on a home win. Indeed, although Geta will miss the suspended Pedro Leon, Colunga is in such great goalscoring form that I’m tempted to back an away win.

Both teams to score seems like a fair bet under the circumstances, but Bakero is out and Obafemi Martins mental state and relationship with his teammates is less than ideal after the (still unresolved) Seattle transfer saga.

In conclusion, with Getafe to score a goal too short at 1.5, I like the Azulones + 0.25 at 2.02, but prefer to wait and see if Levante suffer any injuries in their Europa game first to potentially strengthen the case for this bet.


Celta de Vigo v Real Madrid

Albeit under a different manager, Celta beat Real 2-1 in the Copa del Rey last time they met Real in Vigo. Los Blancos, of course, won the return leg, but have dropped a lot of points in recent La Liga away games and are coming off a midweek UEFA Champions League game in Manchester.

I’m taking a big risk here, but can’t bet on first half goals with the extra tiredness factor for Jose’s boys and everything I’ve just mentioned.

Worth a small punt: Double result of Draw/Real Madrid (4.75)

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Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad

Well, we keep looking for angles in Atleti home games but, bar the straight home win, the only consistent bet that wins is the double result of Atleti HT/FT.

However, La Real are in good from – scoring goals in the process – and I’m going to have one final seasonal crack at opposing the trend of under 2.5 goals at the Vicente Calderon!

If this fails then, apart from when they host Real and Barca, I’ll just bet on Atleti HT/FT until the end of the season!

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals (1.8)


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