Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 29

20 Mar


Rayo Vallecano v Malaga

Of course, after home defeat to Espanyol last time out, Pellegrini’s Malaga will want to get back to winning ways against Rayo this weekend. However, we have to assume that the Anchovies will instead be pre-occupied with their upcoming Champions League clash with German giants Borussia Dortmund and, with Rayo strong in on home soil, it seems best to favour a home win.

As for goals, well, five out of the last six Rayo home games contained at least three goals, with three out of the last four Malaga road games passing the same mark. Also, four out of the last five head to head clashes between the two have seen at least three goals scored.

Recommendation: Rayo (2.05)

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals (2.1)


Celta de Vigo v Barcelona

Well, with Messi and co having travelled around the world on international duty last weekend and a trip to Paris to play PSG in the 2012/13 UEFA Champions League on the horizon, it seems like the perfect time to oppose Barca.

However, Celta’s best player and top scorer, Iago Aspas, will miss this game through suspension and that puts a serious damper on the Galacians clubs chances of scoring.

All in all, Celta + 1.5 Asian handicap is the call I’ve made at 1.86, but it isn’t a strong a bet as it would have been had Aspas not been stupid enough to get himself sent off for a head-butt against Deportivo’s Marchena last weekend.

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Real Zaragoza v Real Madrid

Well, I saw a 1.45 price available for Real Madrid and started to lick my lips in anticipation, before I realised that Los Blancos will host Galatassaray at the Bernabeu only days later.

The bumpy, ill kept pitch of La Romareda, coupled with Jose Mourinho’s desire to keep his stars in top shape for their upcoming European game make choosing a bet in Zaragoza more difficult than normal.

All in all, Real Madrid HT/FT at 2.05 is the best bet I can see in this game, but it’s mainly a case of finding something close to evens for sake of it, and I prefer to bet in-play.


Levante v Sevilla

Impressive as they’ve been at home, Sevilla haven’t won a road game in 2013 and Levante don’t lose too many at home. Notably, five out of Sevilla’s last six road games have seen both teams score, but the same bet has only yielded profit in three of Levante’s last six home games.

Therefore, although I favour both to score in this derby game, it’s not a solid bet on paper- and El Zahr, Barkero and Ballesteros are all missing for the hosts.

All in all, this is a no bet game for my money, but I think that Sevilla will score – just a pity there isn’t a good price on such a bet.


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