Archive | April, 2013

Sunday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 32

18 Apr

sergiogarcia

Getafe v Espanyol

I’m a little nonplussed with regards to betting on this eighth vs eleventh clash, but as Getafe are missing defender Alexis, top scorer Colunga and wideman Pedro Leon – all of whom could be termed as key players – I’m inclined to recommend a small bet on Espanyol draw no bet at 6/4.

However, I should I point out that Geta have a decent home record and can still qualify for the Europa League. The choice, indeed, is yours.

imagesvaleron

Deportivo La Coruna v Athletic Bilbao

I may have got all of my picks wrong last Sunday, but on Saturday I got Depor to win at Levante correct – at a nice 3.6 price.

So, that’s four wins in a row for Deportivo – and, as stated last week, I’m very confident that they’ll escape the drop. Anyway, Athletic are in poor form, won’t qualify for the Europa League and look to be clear of relegation worries.

Therefore, given home advantage, momentum and needs must, I’m going for a Deportivo win.

Recommendation: Deportivo (2.25)

images (1)

Osasuna v Real Sociedad

Ok, Malaga deserved to beat Osasuna last weekend, but deserved counts for nothing when there’s money at stake – I just wanted to win my Osasuna + 0.5 bet and came very, very close to doing so.

Anyway, Osasuna – only four points clear of the relegation places – have lost their last three home games, while La Real have not lost a game since 4-3 defeat against Real Madrid at the Bernabeu in January.

Therefore, besides guessing that Osa will suddenly reverse their home form and take the three points that they need to further survival chances, I can’t see any other attractively priced betting option but to back fourth placed Real Sociedad in a draw no bet scenario.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad – draw no bet (1.8)

falcao2

Sevilla v Atletico Madrid

Well, after more home games going under 2.5 goals than I can remember with any Spanish team, Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros put five past Granada at the Vicente Calderon – thus ruining my under 2.5 goals bet!

Last Friday evening, Sevilla, of course, went 3-0 up against eternal rivals Real Betis, but later saw key midfielder Gary Medel sent off (what a surprise), eventually drawing 3-3.

In conclusion with regards to today’s game, both teams are very, very good on home soil so we should give the edge to Sevilla.

However, Sevilla’s Medel and Fazio (defender) are unavailable, while Arda misses out for Atleti. Instead, both teams to score – a winner in five of the last six Sevilla home games and three of the last four head to head matches between these two – seems like a better bet.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (1.8)

Advertisements

Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 32

16 Apr

siquera

Granada v Valladolid

Certainly, with a ten point difference between seventeenth placed Granada and thirteenth placed Valladolid, it’s fair to say that the home team needs the points more today.

However, with only three wins out of fifteen home games, I’m not about to chance my money on a Granada win at 2.2. I do expect them to win, but would rather save my money for a more attractive fixture.

castro5

Real Madrid v Real Betis

After last weekend’s disastrous attempt to plus handicap Real’s opponents in week 31, Athletic Bilbao, I was determined to win a plethora of bets in Los Blancos game with Betis today!

However, I must be careful in recommendations as we don’t know what kind of a team Jose Mourinho will field with Borussia Dortmund around the corner. I know that Xabi Alonso is suspended for Betis’ visit, but until I’ve seen the starting eleven it seems unwise to bet on over 1.5 first half goals, over 3.5 match and Real to score before thirty minutes, as planned!

What I believe we can bet on right now, though, is Betis to score over 0.5 goals (which they’ve done in their last six meetings with Real Madrid). Sure, I expect both teams to score, but when these two last met I placed this wager and Betis won 1-0! Therefore, I’ll adopt the attitude that I didn’t last time, but you should be fine with BTTS if you prefer.

Recommendation: Betis total goals over 0.5 (1.8)

messi

Barcelona v Levante

With a trip to Munich on the horizon and the 2012/13 La Liga title wrapped up, Barca will likely field a weakened team against Levante tonight.

Regardless, however, the Catalans should still be able to – as they did away to Zara last weekend – win easily.

For my money, the obvious bet choices are either Barca to score before 28:00 at 1.83 and over 1.5 first half goals (2.1). Both should win, but I’ll take the former as if the Catalans haven’t scored by 28:00 I’ll likely bet again.

Recommendation: Time of first Barca goal before 28:00 (1.83)

joaquin

Valencia v Malaga

Los Che can count their selves unlucky for failing to win at Espanyol last weekend given Jonas and Soldado’s late strikes but, all in all, a draw was a fair result.

Malaga were not overly impressive – mainly lethargic – in the first half of their home clash with Osasuna last weekend but, through Baptista’s later strike, the Anchovies eventually won the game.

In conclusion with regards to today’s game, it’s fair to question Malaga’s commitment given that, unless their appeal is successful, they can’t qualify for Europe next season.

However, considering that this match involves the sixth placed team hosting the fifth, value (or at least how I calculate it) suggests that we should back Malaga with a plus handicap.

Worth a punt: Malaga + 1 Asian line (1.83)

Friday’s La Liga preview: 2012/13 – round 32

16 Apr

Monday’s La Liga preview: 2012/13 – round 31

14 Apr

images (5)

Mallorca v Celta Vigo

With the Islanders currently bottom of the Liga BBVA standings and Celta a place above them, this is what the English media call a “six pointer.”

In terms of form, Mallorca have lost their last three games- though we must consider that these defeats were away to Real and Barca, with the latest a home loss to form team Deportivo.

Besides a home draw with a Barca team that rested players and had other priorities at the time, Celta have fared little better in recent fixtures, losing to Deportivo and Rayo.

With regards to each team’s home and away form this season, Mallorca have only won four games at Son Moix, drawing three and losing seven, while Celta have won one road game, drawn one and lost a staggering thirteen.

Now, a both teams must win scenario should either mean that the sides will play defensively – too scared to lose – and we’ll have a low scoring game, or a very open game with a few goals.

In my eyes, as Celta are without top scorer Aspas and considering that they have only scored fourteen goals in fifteen road games this season – while factoring in that Mallorca have scored five goals in their last three home games, enjoy home advantage today and have no injuries to key players, I have to recommend a win for Manzano and his charges.

However, I understand that many of you will be tempted by both teams to score given the scenario – and I can tell you that it’s been a winning bet in Celta’s last three road games (certainly, Aspas didn’t feature in the last one) and Mallorca’s last six at home.

Recommendation: Mallorca (2.1)

Worth a small punt: Mallorca win and BTTS (4.33)

Sunday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 31

12 Apr

images (1)

Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

As the Spanish like to say, ‘Goles y goles y goles’ in this one, surely. Why this over 90 minute betting? Firstly, it’s a noon Sunday kick off and they often produce strange results– making the match winner market hard to pick.

Secondly, the last three head to head games between the two have contained four goals in each (La Real twice won 4-0 at San Sebastian, with Rayo winning 4-0 in Madrid).

Thirdly, five of the last six Rayo home games have passed the over 2.5 goals mark, with four of the last six Real Sociedad away games the same.

Also, with five of the last six La Real away games seeing both teams score and four of the last six Rayo home games the same, BTTS (1.62 best price) is an excellent bet too.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.83)

falcao2

Atletico Madrid v Granada

As stated in previous weeks, Simeone’s Los Colchoneros have played in recent games like their season is already over – seemingly just waiting for the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid.

Falcao and Costa don’t seem to play well together and that, along with an injury to key winger Arda Turan, has affected the goal count – with a disinterested Atleti barely registering a shot on target when drawing 0-0 away to Getafe last week.

As such, and with Granada a little goal shy in recent road games (zero goals in their last two) under 2.5 goals – a winner in the last seven Atleti home games – looks like the best bet today.

Worth a punt: Under 2.5 goals (2.11)

images (10)

Real Zaragoza v Barcelona

Well, Zara are a poor team but one who held Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw at La Romareda a few weeks ago. Indeed, although Barca are an altogether different proposition and less prone to losing or drawing road games, given that the Catalans have just played in the UEFA Champions League, virtually have the La Liga title wrapped up and will miss players such as Messi, Iniesta, Busquets and Jordi Alba, I think it’s worth chancing Zara with a handicap start.

Worth a punt: Zaragoza + 1.25 Asian line (1.78)

llorente

Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid

Bielsa’s Athletic have been indifferent on home soil this season. But then, particularly in the last few months, Jose’s Real Madrid have generally stuttered to one goal wins or defeats to sides like Granada in road games, so a + 1.5 Asian line handicap on Athletic seems most suitable for today, particularly when we consider that Real played Gala in Turkey midweek.

News that Athletic’s Aduriz, Gurpegi, De Marcos and Loporte (all suspended) will miss this game, coupled with a short 1.6 about Athletic + 1.5, has put me off a little, but I still expect to win and will proceed with the bet below.

Worth a punt: Athletic + 1.25 Asian line (1.78)

Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 31

12 Apr

vALLADOLID

Valladolid v Getafe

As I used to and if you’d like me to, I’ll find a verdict in every La Liga game once I resume my expert role with William Hill – and I’ll make it clear whether or not it’s a pick for sake of it – but this game has no appeal to me from a betting perspective.

What I will say is that Valladolid has been in poor form recently – without a win since late January, while Getafe have produced three 0-0 draws in a row.

All in all, if we assume that it’s another nil for Getafe and guess that the home team won’t score more than twice (which they haven’t done for several months), then under 2.5 goals sounds like the best bet.

riki2

Levante v Deportivo La Coruna

Levante, with eight wins, two draws and four defeats so far, are generally a reliable home team but one who doesn’t score many goals (only two in their last four home games).

Deportivo, who have won three games in a row, are no longer bottom of the La Liga standings and look to be going on the sort of ‘miracle’ run that will grant them Primera League survival.

All in all, while Levante can still qualify for the Europa League, their seasonal objective of avoiding relegation has been met and my impression is that they’ve taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks – something that could allow a form team like Depor to win today.

Sure, this is a chancy punt with little justification statistically, but I’m not doing BTTS at 1.73 as although Levante will likely score, I’m not convinced enough to take that price.

Depor + 0.5 was another bet I considered, but once again I don’t like the price (1.62) and opt for a small stake in the hope that the team once dubbed ‘Super Depor’ can make it four wins in a row and take another step towards survival.

Worth a small punt: Deportivo (3.6)

soldado1

Espanyol v Valencia

Simple preview and choice with this once – over 2.5 goals. Why? Well, neither team has players of consequence listed as injured or suspended, and the last five head to head clashes have contained three goals or more.

Not enough to bet off, not a fan of counting head to head records? Fair enough, just leave it if you don’t like the thin reasoning. BTTS is also a viable option at 1.8 – and has is a decent bet based on each teams recent home and away records.

For my money, however, I think that, like they say in boxing, styles make fights and these two produce goals when they meet.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals (2.08) and a 1-1 correct score stake cover (13/2)

kikesola

Malaga v Osasuna

Of course, in heart breaking fashion, Malaga exited the Champions League at the hands of Borussia Dortmund midweek. But will they bounce back today or, with the realisation that they have little to aim for in the league given their European ban next season, meekly lose to an Osasuna side that has, uncharacteristically, won more away games than home games in recent weeks?

With many of the Anchovies players still owed vast sums of money from unpaid salaries, and given how key motivation is in sports, coupled with the fact that Malaga haven’t beaten Osasuna in a long time (further than the futbol24 records go back – and I’ve only got so much time!), I’m going to go for the second theory and back the visitors with a handicap start.

Recommendation: Osasuna + 0.5 (1.9)

Friday’s La Liga preview: 2012/13 – round 31

12 Apr

rubencastro2

Real Betis v Sevilla

Let’s not beat about the bush with this one – both teams to score has been a winning bet in the last four derbies and I see no reason why it shouldn’t win again today!

Of course, given how easily Sevilla took Betis apart in 5-1 victory when the two last met, while factoring in that two of the three Seville derbies prior to that contained more than two goals, over 2.5 goals is a justifiable bet too.

As for who wins the game, well, Betis have proved to be indifferent at home, while Sevilla haven’t tasted league victory on their travels in 2013. I’d favour Betis given this, but wouldn’t actually bet on the 90 minute market. Good luck if you do.

Finally, although I mentioned that this was my recommendation on Twitter several days ago, I’ve only just published this brief article and the price on my fancy is now 1.67 (was 1.73). Pity, but that’s gambling.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (1.67)