Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 31

12 Apr

vALLADOLID

Valladolid v Getafe

As I used to and if you’d like me to, I’ll find a verdict in every La Liga game once I resume my expert role with William Hill – and I’ll make it clear whether or not it’s a pick for sake of it – but this game has no appeal to me from a betting perspective.

What I will say is that Valladolid has been in poor form recently – without a win since late January, while Getafe have produced three 0-0 draws in a row.

All in all, if we assume that it’s another nil for Getafe and guess that the home team won’t score more than twice (which they haven’t done for several months), then under 2.5 goals sounds like the best bet.

riki2

Levante v Deportivo La Coruna

Levante, with eight wins, two draws and four defeats so far, are generally a reliable home team but one who doesn’t score many goals (only two in their last four home games).

Deportivo, who have won three games in a row, are no longer bottom of the La Liga standings and look to be going on the sort of ‘miracle’ run that will grant them Primera League survival.

All in all, while Levante can still qualify for the Europa League, their seasonal objective of avoiding relegation has been met and my impression is that they’ve taken their foot off the gas in recent weeks – something that could allow a form team like Depor to win today.

Sure, this is a chancy punt with little justification statistically, but I’m not doing BTTS at 1.73 as although Levante will likely score, I’m not convinced enough to take that price.

Depor + 0.5 was another bet I considered, but once again I don’t like the price (1.62) and opt for a small stake in the hope that the team once dubbed ‘Super Depor’ can make it four wins in a row and take another step towards survival.

Worth a small punt: Deportivo (3.6)

soldado1

Espanyol v Valencia

Simple preview and choice with this once – over 2.5 goals. Why? Well, neither team has players of consequence listed as injured or suspended, and the last five head to head clashes have contained three goals or more.

Not enough to bet off, not a fan of counting head to head records? Fair enough, just leave it if you don’t like the thin reasoning. BTTS is also a viable option at 1.8 – and has is a decent bet based on each teams recent home and away records.

For my money, however, I think that, like they say in boxing, styles make fights and these two produce goals when they meet.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals (2.08) and a 1-1 correct score stake cover (13/2)

kikesola

Malaga v Osasuna

Of course, in heart breaking fashion, Malaga exited the Champions League at the hands of Borussia Dortmund midweek. But will they bounce back today or, with the realisation that they have little to aim for in the league given their European ban next season, meekly lose to an Osasuna side that has, uncharacteristically, won more away games than home games in recent weeks?

With many of the Anchovies players still owed vast sums of money from unpaid salaries, and given how key motivation is in sports, coupled with the fact that Malaga haven’t beaten Osasuna in a long time (further than the futbol24 records go back – and I’ve only got so much time!), I’m going to go for the second theory and back the visitors with a handicap start.

Recommendation: Osasuna + 0.5 (1.9)

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