Sunday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 31

12 Apr

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Rayo Vallecano v Real Sociedad

As the Spanish like to say, ‘Goles y goles y goles’ in this one, surely. Why this over 90 minute betting? Firstly, it’s a noon Sunday kick off and they often produce strange results– making the match winner market hard to pick.

Secondly, the last three head to head games between the two have contained four goals in each (La Real twice won 4-0 at San Sebastian, with Rayo winning 4-0 in Madrid).

Thirdly, five of the last six Rayo home games have passed the over 2.5 goals mark, with four of the last six Real Sociedad away games the same.

Also, with five of the last six La Real away games seeing both teams score and four of the last six Rayo home games the same, BTTS (1.62 best price) is an excellent bet too.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.83)


Atletico Madrid v Granada

As stated in previous weeks, Simeone’s Los Colchoneros have played in recent games like their season is already over – seemingly just waiting for the Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid.

Falcao and Costa don’t seem to play well together and that, along with an injury to key winger Arda Turan, has affected the goal count – with a disinterested Atleti barely registering a shot on target when drawing 0-0 away to Getafe last week.

As such, and with Granada a little goal shy in recent road games (zero goals in their last two) under 2.5 goals – a winner in the last seven Atleti home games – looks like the best bet today.

Worth a punt: Under 2.5 goals (2.11)

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Real Zaragoza v Barcelona

Well, Zara are a poor team but one who held Real Madrid to a 1-1 draw at La Romareda a few weeks ago. Indeed, although Barca are an altogether different proposition and less prone to losing or drawing road games, given that the Catalans have just played in the UEFA Champions League, virtually have the La Liga title wrapped up and will miss players such as Messi, Iniesta, Busquets and Jordi Alba, I think it’s worth chancing Zara with a handicap start.

Worth a punt: Zaragoza + 1.25 Asian line (1.78)


Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid

Bielsa’s Athletic have been indifferent on home soil this season. But then, particularly in the last few months, Jose’s Real Madrid have generally stuttered to one goal wins or defeats to sides like Granada in road games, so a + 1.5 Asian line handicap on Athletic seems most suitable for today, particularly when we consider that Real played Gala in Turkey midweek.

News that Athletic’s Aduriz, Gurpegi, De Marcos and Loporte (all suspended) will miss this game, coupled with a short 1.6 about Athletic + 1.5, has put me off a little, but I still expect to win and will proceed with the bet below.

Worth a punt: Athletic + 1.25 Asian line (1.78)


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