Saturday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 32

16 Apr

siquera

Granada v Valladolid

Certainly, with a ten point difference between seventeenth placed Granada and thirteenth placed Valladolid, it’s fair to say that the home team needs the points more today.

However, with only three wins out of fifteen home games, I’m not about to chance my money on a Granada win at 2.2. I do expect them to win, but would rather save my money for a more attractive fixture.

castro5

Real Madrid v Real Betis

After last weekend’s disastrous attempt to plus handicap Real’s opponents in week 31, Athletic Bilbao, I was determined to win a plethora of bets in Los Blancos game with Betis today!

However, I must be careful in recommendations as we don’t know what kind of a team Jose Mourinho will field with Borussia Dortmund around the corner. I know that Xabi Alonso is suspended for Betis’ visit, but until I’ve seen the starting eleven it seems unwise to bet on over 1.5 first half goals, over 3.5 match and Real to score before thirty minutes, as planned!

What I believe we can bet on right now, though, is Betis to score over 0.5 goals (which they’ve done in their last six meetings with Real Madrid). Sure, I expect both teams to score, but when these two last met I placed this wager and Betis won 1-0! Therefore, I’ll adopt the attitude that I didn’t last time, but you should be fine with BTTS if you prefer.

Recommendation: Betis total goals over 0.5 (1.8)

messi

Barcelona v Levante

With a trip to Munich on the horizon and the 2012/13 La Liga title wrapped up, Barca will likely field a weakened team against Levante tonight.

Regardless, however, the Catalans should still be able to – as they did away to Zara last weekend – win easily.

For my money, the obvious bet choices are either Barca to score before 28:00 at 1.83 and over 1.5 first half goals (2.1). Both should win, but I’ll take the former as if the Catalans haven’t scored by 28:00 I’ll likely bet again.

Recommendation: Time of first Barca goal before 28:00 (1.83)

joaquin

Valencia v Malaga

Los Che can count their selves unlucky for failing to win at Espanyol last weekend given Jonas and Soldado’s late strikes but, all in all, a draw was a fair result.

Malaga were not overly impressive – mainly lethargic – in the first half of their home clash with Osasuna last weekend but, through Baptista’s later strike, the Anchovies eventually won the game.

In conclusion with regards to today’s game, it’s fair to question Malaga’s commitment given that, unless their appeal is successful, they can’t qualify for Europe next season.

However, considering that this match involves the sixth placed team hosting the fifth, value (or at least how I calculate it) suggests that we should back Malaga with a plus handicap.

Worth a punt: Malaga + 1 Asian line (1.83)

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