Archive | May, 2013

La Liga betting previews: 2012/13 – round 37

24 May

As per last week, I’d recommend you use my brief previews as a guideline and bet very cautiously. Prices on popular bets (like BTTS in a both teams need a win game) are short, but this is always the case at the end of the season as objectives are clear.

I’ve only bet on two games, but have come to conclusions in the rest for those who will bet regardless and seek some form of guidance. More than likely I’ll bet in-play on some of the fixtures, but just two for now.

All prices are courtesy of my employers, William Hill, and correct at the time of going to press.

Good luck to you all,

JC

llorente

Athletic Bilbao v Levante

After Athletic secured their Primera status for another season by defeating Zaragoza last weekend, neither they nor Levante have anything to play for. As such, I wouldn’t recommend serious betting on this match.

However, if you must bet, I would back Athletic to win as Levante have been in free fall since securing their top flight status.

Sadly, the price is short on Athletic and I’d recommend -1 Asian line in the expectancy of at least a push if we did them at Hills, but we don’t and -1 straight just isn’t the same bet. So, the straight win at 4/9 – maybe best used in a multiple – is the selection I’m most comfortable with.

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Athletic v Levante

images (5)

Atletico Madrid v Mallorca

First off all, congratulations to Diego Simeone, his players and all involved at Atletico Madrid for their Copa del Rey defeat of Real Madrid in extra time.

Now down to business, and Atleti – great as they’ve been this season, particularly at home – have nothing to play for and may well be distracted after their cup win. Mallorca, on the other hand, have to win this game and hope that Deportivo (currently 3 points clear of them) drop points.

Of course, it is a big ask for Mallorca to get anything from this game, but Atleti are adept at one goal wins and, under the circumstances, this could be worth a punt: Mallorca + 2 goals (4/9).

Click to view all William Hill betting on Atletico v Mallorca

sergiogarcia

Espanyol v Barcelona

Though Barca would like to get to the 100 point mark, neither team has anything to play for. Of course, this is, however, a Catalan derby so it shouldn’t be a pedestrian affair played under friendly conditions.

As you will all likely know, Messi is out for for the season and many other first team regulars will also be rested in this and the next game.

All in all, Barca will probably win, but they’ve scraped one goal wins with similar sides in recent games and, short as they both are, Espanyol + 2 goals (4/9) and both teams to score (1/2) look like the best bets to me.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Espanyol v Barcelona

leobapsitao

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano

Though unlikely, either team can still make the Europa League if results go their way and both should therefore have motivation to win. The price is very short on this, but if you are betting then both teams to score (6/10) looks like the best bet.

However, be warned that Getafe will likely miss their best forward in Colunga, with a Rayo win – which has happened in the last three meetings between these two and is currently priced at 23/10– now a little more likely.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Getafe v Rayo

imagesvaleron

Malaga v Deportivo La Coruna

Malaga have nothing to play for and will lose their manager and best players at the end of the season, while Deportivo are currently fourth bottom and need points. Therefore, although it’s a bit of an ask, we’ll back the team with needs and go for Deportivo DNB (21/20).


Click to view all William Hill betting on Malaga v Deportivo

kikesola

Osasuna v Sevilla

Osasuna have not been as strong at home this season compared to previous season’s, but Sevilla have proved to be a terrible road team in 2012/13.

This game generally produces under 2.5 goals, but both need to win (Osa for relegation worries, Sevilla for Europe) and my end of season rules dictate a both teams to score (7/10) pick.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Osasuna v Sevilla

images (10)

Real Betis v Real Zaragoza

Well, in all honesty, I’m fearful that this is a banana skin game for Betis – who can secure a place in the Europa League with a win – but they should win, and that could just be me speaking as a fan.

Therefore, it seems best to take myself out of the firing line and avoid making a pick.

Click to view all William Hill betting on Real Betis v Real Zaragoza

images (1)

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

Whether or not La Real claim fourth place is in their own hands, but you’d expect Valencia to beat Granada so Montainier’s men will probably need to beat Madrid today.

Can they do it? Yes, I believe so. After all, La Real ran Madrid very close in a 4-3 defeat at the Bernabeu earlier this season, Los Blancos have just lost the cup final, will probably rest players today and have been much more oppose-able in road games this season compared to Barca (who lost at San Sebastian a few months ago).

However, what puts me off backing a Real Sociedad win is the price (6/4). Now, in similar situations (against Valencia, for example) many of us have opposed Real Madrid when they were priced well above evens and lost.

Therefore, although Real Sociedad should win, I don’t think that the price reflects the risk based on experience and instead opt to back goals.

Both teams to score looks very likely and over 2.5 should win, but all are short priced and, with a view to backing two more goals for a lot more money at half time should this fail (and providing I like what I’m seeing) I’ve backed over 1, 1.5 first half goal line.

Obviously, I can’t bet with Hills, but for those that can over 1.5 first half goals (23/20) is my pick.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

soldado1

Valencia v Granada

Visitors Granada are in great form but not yet mathematically safe from relegation, while Valencia are level on points with fourth placed Real Sociedad but have an inferior head to head record and must, therefore, finish the season with more points than their Basque rivals.

Granada may well score here and Valencia are going to have to try and put them to the sword, but I favour over goals compared to BTTS and expect a couple in the first half.

I have bet on over 1, 1.5 first half goalline, but for Hills customers I recommend over 1.5 first half goals (6/5).

As per the Real Sociedad v Real Madrid game, If I haven’t seen two goals by half time I’ll probably be betting again.

Click to view all William Hill betting on Valencia v Granada

apas

Valladolid v Celta de Vigo

The home team has nothing to play for, but the away team will be likely be relegated if they don’t win today. Therefore, although I won’t bet on the game myself, especially with Celta missing a few key players, my rules dictate backing a Celta win at 6/4.

Must say that I was tempted to go with Valladolid DNB, but I’ve given warning and advised of my forecasting rules in terms of backing a team who has nothing to play for against one that does.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Valladolid v Celta

Advertisements

The weekend’s La Liga previews – round 36

16 May

Foreword

Right, ever honest, I’ll admit to being very, very tired as I write these brief previews (long day at work and watched Copa Lib the night before), but in order to get them out on time – and sleep properly – I’ve got to be very brief and write them now.

Be aware – as I’m sure most are – that this is an extremely hard time to pick bets with the season almost over. So please stake sensibly and never bet what you can’t afford to lose.

Of course, I am not in charge of the prices listed in these previews, but do not want to lose because I chanced better priced bets closer to evens simply because many of the picks may be considered too short priced to be recommended in betting previews.

Maybe it’s a good time to do small stakes multiples with my picks, but whatever you do I wish you the best of luck.
JC

Saturday, 18 May 2013

soldado1

Getafe v Valencia, 17:00

For the last two seasons I’ve bet on Valencia to win this fixture and twice lost! Each time the game had at least three goals in it and I swore to back over 2.5 goals the next time Valencia visited the Alfonso Perez!

Of course, I’m slightly scared that Valencia will win 1 or 2-0, but Getafe defeated Real Sociedad in their last home game and can still qualify for the Europa league – incentive enough for this bet, I hope.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (8/13)

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Getafe v Valencia

kikesola

Granada v Osasuna, 19:00

At the time of writing, three and four points clear of the final relegation place respectively, Granada (2.05) and Osasuna (4.0) meet this weekend. Sounds like a point suits all parties here, and that’s what I’m going to go for.

Worth a small punt: Draw (21/10)

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Granada v Osasuna

negredo

Sevilla v Real Sociedad, 21:00

While I have no time to check statistics, I’m confident in my memory that Sevilla home game usually contain a lot of goals and expect this to be no different.

In terms of motivation, Sevilla need to win to have any hope of making next seasons Europa League, while Real Sociedad, particularly if Valencia win at Getafe, need to win to firm their grip on fourth place. BTTS, if you prefer, also appeals here.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (8/13)

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Sevilla v Real Sociedad

Sunday, 19 May 2013

leobapsitao

Levante v Rayo Vallecano, 11:00

Both sides have been in very poor form since securing their top flight status for another season and I see no need in betting on this counts for nothing game, sorry!

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Levante v Rayo

riki

Deportivo La Coruna v Espanyol, 16:00

Win or lose, I can’t see any other way of deciding what bet to pick in this game other than to recommend third bottom Depor to beat an Espanyol team that has nothing to play for.

Recommendation: Deportivo (4/7)

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Deportivo v Espanyol

images (10)

Real Zaragoza v Athletic Bilbao, 18:00

Bielsa’s Athletic need a point to retain their Primera Liga status for another season, while Zaragoza are two points above the drop zone at the time of writing, and will be desperate to win this game. All in all, seems like a decent scenario for both to score.

Recommendation: BTTS (4/6)

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Zaragoza v Athletic

vALLADOLID

Barcelona v Valladolid, 20:00

Well, Messi is out for the season and this game, bar a possible title celebrating rout for Barca, counts for nothing. As such, I’m going to gauge effort levels and bet in-play. If you must bet pre-match, then find me on twitter and I’ll pick you what I see as the best bet under the circumstances.

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Barcelona v Valladolid

Click to view all William Hill La Liga betting

2012/13 Copa del Rey final – Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

16 May

images (7)

Copa del Rey Final – 20:30 – live on Sky Sports 1

Seems little point in discussing this game in great depth as, like a Phil Taylor v Raymond van Barneveld darts match, one side holds a massive mental advantage over the over due to constantly beating them.

In this case, Atletico Madrid haven’t beaten Real since 1999 – when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink played for Los Colchoneros! In most meetings this century, there have been few opportunities better than the one Atleti had in the league a few weeks ago.

Basically, with Real playing in the UEFA Champions League days later, Los Blancos rested nine of their eleven starters from the previous game and still won 2-1 at Atletico’s Vicente Calderon stadium!

So, while an Atletico win grows more and more plausible as the year’s progress, they just don’t seem able to get the job done.

Therefore, besides throwing your money up in the air and guessing that Atleti will finally get it right in the Copa final, what makes anyone think that they’ll finally defeat Real when the circumstances – regular starters available, game held at their own stadium etc – favour Los Blancos more than ever this time?

From a fan perspective, I’d like to see Los Colchoneros defeat Real this Friday, but from a betting perspective – and bear in mind that I’m not someone who just keeps backing the same thing under the guise that it has to win sooner or later – the main recommendation has to be something to so with a Real Madrid win.

In saying that, I’d expect both teams to score (8/15) and Falcao (6/1 first scorer, 4/6 anytime) to net for Atleti, but the prices on offer are simply too short for me to recommend as my main pick.

As I can’t bet with William Hill because I work for them, I’ve bet on Real – 1 Asian line elsewhere in the expectancy that my bet should be a push worst case.

Now, as Hills don’t offer Asian lines the closest I can find for you is Real -1 straight handicap at 13/10. For those unaware, this bet means that Real will have to win by two goals in order for you to win the bet.

Of course, tricky position for me in terms of recommendations, but I’ve given you honest insight from a work and personal perspective and wish you the best of luck betting on the 2012/13 Copa del Rey final.

Finally, should you wish to bet on the William Hill headline offers for this game, please click on the link below where you’ll find all of your markets.

View all of our betting for Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

Sunday’s La Liga previews: 2012/13 – round 35

10 May

leobapsitao

Rayo Vallecano v Valencia, 11:00

Well, I wanted to recommend both teams to score or even over 2.5 goals in this Rayo (13/5) v Valencia (21/20) clash as each side still has something to play for, but the prices – 4/7 and 13/20 respectively – are simply too short.

Indeed, I’ve put a few worth a small punt bets out this weekend, but I can’t see anything in this one. Rayo + 1 goal could be worth a pop at 3/4, however, but it’s in-play or nothing with my money.

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Rayo v Valencia

apas

Real Betis v Celta de Vigo, 16:00

Betis (10/11) did well to lead Barcelona at Camp Nou last weekend, but this weekend’s game at home to relegation threatened Celta (14/5) is exactly the kind of game they’ll lose – i.e. to someone who needs the points more.

Of course, as readers of my column (wherever it may have been) will know, I refuse to oppose Betis due to my love for the club. However, I do think that they’ll drop points today – and you can bet on whatever you want!

Recommendations: Over 2.5 goals (7/10) and double chance Celta Vigo or draw (17/20)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Betis v Celta

messi

Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, 18:00

Right, Barca (19/20) haven’t been playing well and Messi has been kept on the bench due to fitness issues, but they should still be able to beat an Atletico Madrid (14/5) side who have nothing to play for having wrapped up third place.

Also, and most certainly the biggest factor for me, Atleti play Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey final only days after this game – and why risk you best players against Barca when you haven’t been able to beat Real Madrid since 1999?

Recommendation: Barcelona (19/20)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Atletico v Barcelona

joaquin

Malaga v Sevilla, 20:00

Difficult game to call as while Malaga (17/10) are good value on home soil at their price, the Anchovies played Real Madrid midweek and have debatable motivation given that they are banned from European competition in 2013/14. Also, the club’s manager and best players are highly likely in the summer due to mounting debts.

Sevilla (also 17/10), of course, are a terrible away side but do have something to gain in potential victory as they can still qualify for next season’s Europa League. But do you want to trust Sevila? I don’t and abstain from betting on this game, but if you must punt then over 2.5 goals is the best I can guess at – available at 7/10.

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Malaga v Sevilla

Friday and Saturday’s La Liga previews

10 May

Friday, 10 May 2013

images (10)

Levante v Real Zaragoza, 20:00

On paper, I’d go with Zaragoza (7/4) to win this game as they won here in the cup earlier this season, are in much better form compared to Levante and are in greater need of the points. However, since an ‘investigation’ has recently been touted accusing Levante of throwing their home game against Deportivo a few weeks ago (they lost 4-0), I can’t be sure that Levante (13/8) will do what you expect of a club with nothing to play for and lose today, and fear that the Valencia based side will try very, very hard to beat relegation threatened Zaragoza.

As such, no serious bet for me in this one as I can’t see the wood for the trees! Maybe both teams to score if you have to bet – or a small wager on the William Hill headline offer of Postiga anytime scorer and Zara win at 5/1 instead – a decent punt, I think.

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Levante v Real Zaragoza

Saturday, 11 May 2013

images (5)

Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca, 15:00

Bielsa’s Athletic (5/6) seem unlikely to get relegated but are not yet mathematically safe from the drop, while bottom club Mallorca (16/5) are bottom and must win. Head to head games between these two have been under 2.5 goals for some time – and that market therefore deserves attention.

However, Mallorca – bar 5-0 defeat to Barca six weeks ago – have scored in their last nine games and I’d fancy both teams to net at least one each today. The problem with this is a 13/20 price – not good enough for me! Instead I’ve gone for a very small punt on the unthinkable!

Worth a small punt: Mallorca (16/5)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Athletic Bilbao v Mallorca

riki2

Valladolid v Deportivo La Coruna, 17:00

Win or lose, simple choice for me in this one – Valladolid (6/4) have nothing to play for, while Deportivo (9/5) are – at time of writing – in the bottom three and can’t afford to lose this game.

Recommendation: Deportivo DNB (21/20)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Valladolid v Deportivo

kikesola

Osasuna v Getafe, 19:00

After a 4-0 thrashing away to Valencia last weekend, Osasuna (10/11) need to win their remaining home games if they are to increase chances of survival. Getafe (3/1) – who’d seemed disinterested in chasing a Europa League spot for 2013/14 considering recent defeats – suddenly decided that they’d start trying to win again when playing Real Sociedad last Monday.

Given the above, are Getafe going to try to win in Pamplona or will they be happy with winning their pre-mentioned home game with Real Sociedad, just waiting for their next home game to pick up more points?

I think the latter and expect Osasuna to defeat Getafe because of needs must, but I’m not sure I want to chance more than a few quid on the game and will therefore punt relatively low.

Worth a punt: Osasuna (10/11)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Osasuna v Getafe

sergiogarcia\

Espanyol v Real Madrid, 21:00

With Los Blancos due to play Atletico Madrid in the Copa del Rey final only days after their trip to Catalonia – and little to gain in the league bar a pride filled attempt to force Barca to wait as long as possible before they are crowned 2012/13 Liga BBVA Champions, it seems highly likely that Real will rest several of their players against Espanyol.

Of course, this makes the game hard to bet on! BTTS is 8/15, over 2.5 goals is similarly priced and over 3.5 hard to trust without knowing who will take to the field for Real Madrid.

Truth be told, there’s nothing that I want to bet on in this game (pre-match) from a serious punting perspective, but If you want a couple of small wagers, find two listed beneath!

Worth a small punt: S Garcia anytime scorer (2/1) and the double result of Draw/Real Madrid (18/5)

Click here for the full range of William Hill betting on Espanyol v Real Madrid