La Liga betting previews: 2012/13 – round 37

24 May

As per last week, I’d recommend you use my brief previews as a guideline and bet very cautiously. Prices on popular bets (like BTTS in a both teams need a win game) are short, but this is always the case at the end of the season as objectives are clear.

I’ve only bet on two games, but have come to conclusions in the rest for those who will bet regardless and seek some form of guidance. More than likely I’ll bet in-play on some of the fixtures, but just two for now.

All prices are courtesy of my employers, William Hill, and correct at the time of going to press.

Good luck to you all,

JC

llorente

Athletic Bilbao v Levante

After Athletic secured their Primera status for another season by defeating Zaragoza last weekend, neither they nor Levante have anything to play for. As such, I wouldn’t recommend serious betting on this match.

However, if you must bet, I would back Athletic to win as Levante have been in free fall since securing their top flight status.

Sadly, the price is short on Athletic and I’d recommend -1 Asian line in the expectancy of at least a push if we did them at Hills, but we don’t and -1 straight just isn’t the same bet. So, the straight win at 4/9 – maybe best used in a multiple – is the selection I’m most comfortable with.

Click here to view all William Hill betting on Athletic v Levante

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Atletico Madrid v Mallorca

First off all, congratulations to Diego Simeone, his players and all involved at Atletico Madrid for their Copa del Rey defeat of Real Madrid in extra time.

Now down to business, and Atleti – great as they’ve been this season, particularly at home – have nothing to play for and may well be distracted after their cup win. Mallorca, on the other hand, have to win this game and hope that Deportivo (currently 3 points clear of them) drop points.

Of course, it is a big ask for Mallorca to get anything from this game, but Atleti are adept at one goal wins and, under the circumstances, this could be worth a punt: Mallorca + 2 goals (4/9).

Click to view all William Hill betting on Atletico v Mallorca

sergiogarcia

Espanyol v Barcelona

Though Barca would like to get to the 100 point mark, neither team has anything to play for. Of course, this is, however, a Catalan derby so it shouldn’t be a pedestrian affair played under friendly conditions.

As you will all likely know, Messi is out for for the season and many other first team regulars will also be rested in this and the next game.

All in all, Barca will probably win, but they’ve scraped one goal wins with similar sides in recent games and, short as they both are, Espanyol + 2 goals (4/9) and both teams to score (1/2) look like the best bets to me.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Espanyol v Barcelona

leobapsitao

Getafe v Rayo Vallecano

Though unlikely, either team can still make the Europa League if results go their way and both should therefore have motivation to win. The price is very short on this, but if you are betting then both teams to score (6/10) looks like the best bet.

However, be warned that Getafe will likely miss their best forward in Colunga, with a Rayo win – which has happened in the last three meetings between these two and is currently priced at 23/10– now a little more likely.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Getafe v Rayo

imagesvaleron

Malaga v Deportivo La Coruna

Malaga have nothing to play for and will lose their manager and best players at the end of the season, while Deportivo are currently fourth bottom and need points. Therefore, although it’s a bit of an ask, we’ll back the team with needs and go for Deportivo DNB (21/20).


Click to view all William Hill betting on Malaga v Deportivo

kikesola

Osasuna v Sevilla

Osasuna have not been as strong at home this season compared to previous season’s, but Sevilla have proved to be a terrible road team in 2012/13.

This game generally produces under 2.5 goals, but both need to win (Osa for relegation worries, Sevilla for Europe) and my end of season rules dictate a both teams to score (7/10) pick.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Osasuna v Sevilla

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Real Betis v Real Zaragoza

Well, in all honesty, I’m fearful that this is a banana skin game for Betis – who can secure a place in the Europa League with a win – but they should win, and that could just be me speaking as a fan.

Therefore, it seems best to take myself out of the firing line and avoid making a pick.

Click to view all William Hill betting on Real Betis v Real Zaragoza

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Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

Whether or not La Real claim fourth place is in their own hands, but you’d expect Valencia to beat Granada so Montainier’s men will probably need to beat Madrid today.

Can they do it? Yes, I believe so. After all, La Real ran Madrid very close in a 4-3 defeat at the Bernabeu earlier this season, Los Blancos have just lost the cup final, will probably rest players today and have been much more oppose-able in road games this season compared to Barca (who lost at San Sebastian a few months ago).

However, what puts me off backing a Real Sociedad win is the price (6/4). Now, in similar situations (against Valencia, for example) many of us have opposed Real Madrid when they were priced well above evens and lost.

Therefore, although Real Sociedad should win, I don’t think that the price reflects the risk based on experience and instead opt to back goals.

Both teams to score looks very likely and over 2.5 should win, but all are short priced and, with a view to backing two more goals for a lot more money at half time should this fail (and providing I like what I’m seeing) I’ve backed over 1, 1.5 first half goal line.

Obviously, I can’t bet with Hills, but for those that can over 1.5 first half goals (23/20) is my pick.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

soldado1

Valencia v Granada

Visitors Granada are in great form but not yet mathematically safe from relegation, while Valencia are level on points with fourth placed Real Sociedad but have an inferior head to head record and must, therefore, finish the season with more points than their Basque rivals.

Granada may well score here and Valencia are going to have to try and put them to the sword, but I favour over goals compared to BTTS and expect a couple in the first half.

I have bet on over 1, 1.5 first half goalline, but for Hills customers I recommend over 1.5 first half goals (6/5).

As per the Real Sociedad v Real Madrid game, If I haven’t seen two goals by half time I’ll probably be betting again.

Click to view all William Hill betting on Valencia v Granada

apas

Valladolid v Celta de Vigo

The home team has nothing to play for, but the away team will be likely be relegated if they don’t win today. Therefore, although I won’t bet on the game myself, especially with Celta missing a few key players, my rules dictate backing a Celta win at 6/4.

Must say that I was tempted to go with Valladolid DNB, but I’ve given warning and advised of my forecasting rules in terms of backing a team who has nothing to play for against one that does.


Click to view all William Hill betting on Valladolid v Celta

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