Archive | November, 2013

Sunday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 01/12/13

29 Nov

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In order to make the previews easier to write this time, I’ve opted for a simple style, mainly just listing stats that will explain my betting choices.

All prices are courtesy of my employer, William Hill. Of course, thanks for reading and good luck, whatever you choose to bet on.

JC

Real Betis (19/20) v Rayo Vallecano (11/4), 11:00

Rayo have won the last five head to head matches, including the last two in Seville.

-Rayo have won two of their last three away games

-Betis have lost six of their last seven league games (they were thrashed 4-0 by Sevilla last weekend), currently occupying 20th position in the standings (Rayo are 17th)

-Betis’ star striker, Ruben Castro, may start but is not fully match fit.

-Betis played and lost 1-0 to Lyon is France on Thursday night, while Rayo aren’t in Europe and should have a well rested team.

Recommendation: Rayo (11/4)

Granada (19/10) v Sevilla (29/20), 16:00

-Granada had a man sent off and lost 4-0 away to Barca last weekend.

-Sevilla thrashed nieghours Real Betis 4-0 at the Ramon Sanchez Pijuan in their fixture last weekend.

-Sevilla won their last away game, 3-1 at Espanyol, but had not won a league away game in 2013 prior to that.

-Granada won their last home game, 3-1 against Malaga, but have lost four out of their last six at their own stadium.

-Sevilla will have played an extra game compared to Granada – a 1-1 draw at home to Estoril in the Europa League on Thursday evening.

-Both teams have scored in Sevilla’s last six away league games – and last eight if you count Europa fixtures.

-Both teams have scored in Granada’s last two home games.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (4/5)

Valencia (4/9) v Osasuna (13/2), 18:00 – 2nd half live on Sky Sports 1

-Valencia outplayed their hosts, Elche, on the road last weekend, but lost 2-1.

-Valencia fielded a strong team away to Swansea in the Europa League on Thursday evening, winning 1-0.

-Out of their last four away games, Osasuna have won two and lost two, winning 1-0 at Valladolid last time out.

-Five out of Valencia’s last six home games have contained three goals or more.

-Four out of Osasuna’s last six away games have contained three goals or more.

-Osasuna have scored in five out of their last six away games

-The last two meetings between these two at the Mestalla have seen three goals or more in each.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (4/5)

Athletic Bilbao (4/1) v Barcelona (8/13), 20:00 – live on Sky Sports 1

-Benefiting from a red card, Athletic came from a goal down to beat Malaga 2-1 at La Rosaleda last Monday.

-Barca defeated Granada 4-0 at Camp Nou last weekend, maintaining their 100% start to the season.

-In the Champions League, Barca, fielding a few of their ‘stars’, lost 2-1 to Ajax in a game they didn’t need to win midweek.

-Athletic have not yet tasted defeat at their new San Mames stadium, winning four and drawing two.

-At the Basque clubs old stadium, the original San Mames, this game ended in a 2-2 draw last season.

-Both teams have scored in five out of Athletic’s last six home games.

-This looked like a fixture Barca could struggle in, but then you’d expect a reaction from their midweek UCL defeat in Holland.

Worth a punt: Match Result and Both Teams to Score: Barcelona (2/1)

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Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 30/11/13

28 Nov

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Elche v Atletico Madrid, 15:00

Elche (6/1) were outplayed by Valencia in the first half of their meeting at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero last weekend, but eventually won 2-1. It was fair victory, all in all, with their goals scored by Fidel and Herrera.

After a slow start in which Getafe had played well, Atletico (1/2) matched their all time record score on home soil by winning 7-0 at the Vicente Calderon. It must be said that the Azulones being reduced to ten men at the end of the first half was a large factor in the scoreline, but Garcia (2), Villa (2), Costa and Adrian – the Atletico scorers – wouldn’t have had a problem with this. The other goal, which was the second of the game, was scored by Getafe’s Lopo!

In conclusion, nearly all of Atletico’s key players were rested for the midweek 1-1 draw with Zenit in St Petersburg, but one or two defenders may have tired legs and rather than go with the double result of Atletico/Atletico, I’ve opted for Los Colchoneros to score over 1.5 total goals.I do have slight fear of Atleti winning 1-0 as Elche have lost 1-0 at home a few times, but with the confidence the Atleti attackers have they should be able to get at least two goals.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Atletico total goals (3/4)

Celta Vigo v Almeria, 17:00

Through a Rafinha brace and Lopez strike, Luis Enrique’s boys took a 3-1 lead away to Real Sociedad last weekend. However, later reduced to ten men, Celta Vigo (10/11) capitulated to lose 4-3.

Almeria (3/1) were trounced 5-0 at home to Real Madrid last weekend – their third loss in four home games.

In conclusion, Celta are the better team and should be able to outscore Almeria, but then the side from Vigo have not even won a game on home soil this season and have lost four times in a row. Almeria, meanwhile, as poor of an excuse for a team that they are, have won two of their last three away games, including a 2-1 victory at Valencia.

Anything is possible in today’s game, but I’m not backing a team that hasn’t won at home at an odds-on price.

Recommendation: Double Chance – Almeria or Draw (17/20)

Real Madrid v Valladolid, 19:00 – live on Sky Sports 2

With Ronaldo opening the scoring after only two minutes, Real Madrid (1/7) went on to defeat Almeria 5-0 on their own turf last weekend. As well as Morata and Isco, Bale and Benzema each scored.

They were somewhat unlucky to do so, but Valladolid (14/1) lost 1-0 at home to Osasuna last time out.

In conclusion, Ronaldo may not play and that could reduce the goal count, but Los Blancos have enough firepower without him and this is always a high scoring fixture in which both teams score and Madrid win.

Recommendations: Over 3.5 total Real Madrid goals (13/10) and Match Result and Both Teams to Score – Real Madrid (also 13/10)

Espanyol v Real Sociedad, 21:00 – live on Sky Sports 2

They were aided by a red card, but Espanyol (5/4) shook off a losing streak to win 4-1 at crisis club Rayo last weekend. Stuani netted once, while Sergio Garcia recorded a rare hat-trick.

Like half of the league last weekend, Real Sociedad (11/5) benefited from a red card in winning their fixture – 4-3 at home to Celta Vigo. The star of the show was Vela, who scored four times.

In conclusion, I don’t trust Espanyol to beat Real Sociedad but do fancy both teams to score. However, the stats aren’t good for it when we look at recent Espanyol home games – and some of the La Real players that should take to the field against Espanyol played in the Basque clubs midweek drubbing in Ukraine. No bet for me, though I might change my mind once in receipt of the lineups.

Good luck with whatever you choose to bet on, and thanks for reading.

All prices are courtesy of my employer, William Hill.

Friday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 29/11/13

28 Nov

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Getafe v Levante, 19:00

Madrid based Getafe (19/20) were slaughtered by their neighbours Atletico Madrid at the Vicente Calderon last weekend, eventually losing 7-0. For sure, being reduced to ten men in the fist half allowed Atleti to run up the score, but this result still demonstrates the ever growing gap between the top teams and the rest in La Liga.

Levante (16/5), who gain better results on the road than they do at home, lost 3-0 at home to high-flying Villarreal in their last match. Not unexpected and they were outplayed by a better attacking team, but having a player sent off after ten minutes with the score 0-0 was only going to lead to one outcome.

Now, there isn’t a lot of difference between Getafe and Levante in playing terms, so the former should win given home advantage. However, such an assumption doesn’t, generally, pay out as much as it used to and I’m more interested in opposing this theory with 2013/14 producing a vast increase in the amount of away wins amongst fairly evenly matched teams.

In their respective last four home and away games, Getafe have won one, lost two and drawn one, while Levante have won two, drawn one and lost one. Head to head, we’ve seen a win for each team and two draws in the last four matches, with Levante drawing at home but winning away in 2012/13. I’ll be happy if Levante can just avoid defeat this time.

Recommendation: Double chance – Levante or Draw (5/6)

Villarreal v Malaga, 21:00

The team dubbed ‘The Yellow Submarines’ continued their excellent start to the season by beating Levante 3-0 on the road last weekend. Bruno opened the scoring for Villarreal (11/20), with Uche later adding a brace to seal the points. It must be noted, however, that Levante played 80 minutes with only ten men after an early red card.

Bernd Schuster’s Malaga(5/1) lost for the second time in a row, this time 2-1 at home to Athletic Bilbao. Through Juanmi’s first half header, Malaga led at the break but conceded a header their selves to see Athletic draw level in the second half, before Portillo saw red and the Basques eventually grabbed the win.

All in all, I’d expect Villarreal to defeat Malaga at El Madrigal, but their price is too short by my calculations. The last time this situation arose – against Getafe – 4/7 shot Villarreal had a player sent off and lost 2-0. Instead of opposing Villarreal I bet on over 2.5 goals – cashing out for a tiny loss when the home side were reduced to ten men and a goal down.

Perhaps Marcelino’s side – who’ve only lost once at home this season but have not won in two games there – will get the win in a similar situation this time, but Malaga have drawn four of their last six away games and I’m going to take a chance they can avoid defeat on Friday.

Recommendation Malaga + 1 goal (11/8)

All prices are courtesy of my employer, William Hill, and are correct as of 18:45 GMT 27/11/13.