Friday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 29/11/13

28 Nov

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Getafe v Levante, 19:00

Madrid based Getafe (19/20) were slaughtered by their neighbours Atletico Madrid at the Vicente Calderon last weekend, eventually losing 7-0. For sure, being reduced to ten men in the fist half allowed Atleti to run up the score, but this result still demonstrates the ever growing gap between the top teams and the rest in La Liga.

Levante (16/5), who gain better results on the road than they do at home, lost 3-0 at home to high-flying Villarreal in their last match. Not unexpected and they were outplayed by a better attacking team, but having a player sent off after ten minutes with the score 0-0 was only going to lead to one outcome.

Now, there isn’t a lot of difference between Getafe and Levante in playing terms, so the former should win given home advantage. However, such an assumption doesn’t, generally, pay out as much as it used to and I’m more interested in opposing this theory with 2013/14 producing a vast increase in the amount of away wins amongst fairly evenly matched teams.

In their respective last four home and away games, Getafe have won one, lost two and drawn one, while Levante have won two, drawn one and lost one. Head to head, we’ve seen a win for each team and two draws in the last four matches, with Levante drawing at home but winning away in 2012/13. I’ll be happy if Levante can just avoid defeat this time.

Recommendation: Double chance – Levante or Draw (5/6)

Villarreal v Malaga, 21:00

The team dubbed ‘The Yellow Submarines’ continued their excellent start to the season by beating Levante 3-0 on the road last weekend. Bruno opened the scoring for Villarreal (11/20), with Uche later adding a brace to seal the points. It must be noted, however, that Levante played 80 minutes with only ten men after an early red card.

Bernd Schuster’s Malaga(5/1) lost for the second time in a row, this time 2-1 at home to Athletic Bilbao. Through Juanmi’s first half header, Malaga led at the break but conceded a header their selves to see Athletic draw level in the second half, before Portillo saw red and the Basques eventually grabbed the win.

All in all, I’d expect Villarreal to defeat Malaga at El Madrigal, but their price is too short by my calculations. The last time this situation arose – against Getafe – 4/7 shot Villarreal had a player sent off and lost 2-0. Instead of opposing Villarreal I bet on over 2.5 goals – cashing out for a tiny loss when the home side were reduced to ten men and a goal down.

Perhaps Marcelino’s side – who’ve only lost once at home this season but have not won in two games there – will get the win in a similar situation this time, but Malaga have drawn four of their last six away games and I’m going to take a chance they can avoid defeat on Friday.

Recommendation Malaga + 1 goal (11/8)

All prices are courtesy of my employer, William Hill, and are correct as of 18:45 GMT 27/11/13.

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