Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 30/11/13

28 Nov

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Elche v Atletico Madrid, 15:00

Elche (6/1) were outplayed by Valencia in the first half of their meeting at the Estadio Manuel Martinez Valero last weekend, but eventually won 2-1. It was fair victory, all in all, with their goals scored by Fidel and Herrera.

After a slow start in which Getafe had played well, Atletico (1/2) matched their all time record score on home soil by winning 7-0 at the Vicente Calderon. It must be said that the Azulones being reduced to ten men at the end of the first half was a large factor in the scoreline, but Garcia (2), Villa (2), Costa and Adrian – the Atletico scorers – wouldn’t have had a problem with this. The other goal, which was the second of the game, was scored by Getafe’s Lopo!

In conclusion, nearly all of Atletico’s key players were rested for the midweek 1-1 draw with Zenit in St Petersburg, but one or two defenders may have tired legs and rather than go with the double result of Atletico/Atletico, I’ve opted for Los Colchoneros to score over 1.5 total goals.I do have slight fear of Atleti winning 1-0 as Elche have lost 1-0 at home a few times, but with the confidence the Atleti attackers have they should be able to get at least two goals.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Atletico total goals (3/4)

Celta Vigo v Almeria, 17:00

Through a Rafinha brace and Lopez strike, Luis Enrique’s boys took a 3-1 lead away to Real Sociedad last weekend. However, later reduced to ten men, Celta Vigo (10/11) capitulated to lose 4-3.

Almeria (3/1) were trounced 5-0 at home to Real Madrid last weekend – their third loss in four home games.

In conclusion, Celta are the better team and should be able to outscore Almeria, but then the side from Vigo have not even won a game on home soil this season and have lost four times in a row. Almeria, meanwhile, as poor of an excuse for a team that they are, have won two of their last three away games, including a 2-1 victory at Valencia.

Anything is possible in today’s game, but I’m not backing a team that hasn’t won at home at an odds-on price.

Recommendation: Double Chance – Almeria or Draw (17/20)

Real Madrid v Valladolid, 19:00 – live on Sky Sports 2

With Ronaldo opening the scoring after only two minutes, Real Madrid (1/7) went on to defeat Almeria 5-0 on their own turf last weekend. As well as Morata and Isco, Bale and Benzema each scored.

They were somewhat unlucky to do so, but Valladolid (14/1) lost 1-0 at home to Osasuna last time out.

In conclusion, Ronaldo may not play and that could reduce the goal count, but Los Blancos have enough firepower without him and this is always a high scoring fixture in which both teams score and Madrid win.

Recommendations: Over 3.5 total Real Madrid goals (13/10) and Match Result and Both Teams to Score – Real Madrid (also 13/10)

Espanyol v Real Sociedad, 21:00 – live on Sky Sports 2

They were aided by a red card, but Espanyol (5/4) shook off a losing streak to win 4-1 at crisis club Rayo last weekend. Stuani netted once, while Sergio Garcia recorded a rare hat-trick.

Like half of the league last weekend, Real Sociedad (11/5) benefited from a red card in winning their fixture – 4-3 at home to Celta Vigo. The star of the show was Vela, who scored four times.

In conclusion, I don’t trust Espanyol to beat Real Sociedad but do fancy both teams to score. However, the stats aren’t good for it when we look at recent Espanyol home games – and some of the La Real players that should take to the field against Espanyol played in the Basque clubs midweek drubbing in Ukraine. No bet for me, though I might change my mind once in receipt of the lineups.

Good luck with whatever you choose to bet on, and thanks for reading.

All prices are courtesy of my employer, William Hill.

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