Sunday’s La Liga Betting Previews – 05/01/14

24 Dec

Sevilla v Getafe

Previously winless in league away games for the best part of a calendar year, Sevilla have now won 3 in a row, most recently against Granada.

At home, however, Emery’s Rojiblancos – who were missing key midfielder Rakitic – couldn’t beat Athletic Bilbao in their last league game at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and, most recently, they also lost (albeit with a weakened starting 11) 2-0 to 3rd division Racing Santander in the Copa del Rey.

In their last two league away games, Getafe lost 1-0 away to Malaga and were hammered 7-0 by Atletico Madrid. However, prior to those defeats, the Azulones won 3 road games in a row – against Espanyol, Granada and Villarreal.

All in all, despite what I wrote in the opening paragraph, Sevilla are a strong home team, but they’ll miss midfielder Iborra, defender Cala and left-back Moreno – who has already been capped by Spain and looks like a star in the making.

Sevilla should and probably will defeat Getafe, but they’ve conceded in 6 out of their last 7 league home games and Getafe have netted in 4 out of their last 6 away, so factoring in defensive absentees (Getafe have nobody listed as injured or suspended) and assuming that Sevilla will score, BTTS looks like it’s worth a punt here. BTTS & Sevilla to win is 3.4 if you want to take a bigger chance.

Worth a punt: Both teams to score (1.85)

Barcelona v Elche

Barca have not been overly impressive in 2013/14, not by their usual standards, but they’ve won every league game they’ve played at Camp Nou and this shouldn’t change against an Elche side that has lost 4 games in a row.

Barca – 2 goals looks like a fair punt but, as is usually the case, I prefer to bet on goals. Since we might have to allow for a slow start after the festive season and the 2 week break we’ve endured, I opt for match goals rather than first half.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals (1.8)

Osasuna v Espanyol

Osasuna are likely to miss Sisi, De las Cuevas and Nino through injury, while Damia is suspended. Espanyol, on the other hand, will play without Victor Sanchez and Fuentes through suspension.

As for my pick in this game, well, I’m not betting on it. If you plan to, though, take note that Osasuna have only won 1 league game at home in 2013/14, against Rayo – who everybody beats – and Espanyol won 2-0 here last season.

Having looked at the handicap and double chance prices, Espanyol draw no bet looks like a fair punt at 2.2, if you must. I won’t count this as a ‘tip,’ it’s just the fairest logic I can find for those who want some form of guidance.

Real Sociedad v Athletic Bilbao

Well, well, well, this should be a cracker! Indeed, the obvious pick, especially in a derby game like this, is BTTS, but at 1.62 I’m not playing. Now, I do favour a La Real victory in this tie as they won at (the old) San Mames last time they faced Athletic and also tasted victory at San Sebastian in 2012/13, but I also want to bet on the more acceptably priced over goals, sit back and see what happens.

In a derby game, particularly one that’s held in Spain – it’s also worth looking at booking points. Over 60 looks perfectly doable, and is available at 2.1 with one firm.

However, ever honest, I’m desperate for my bed now (I’m on holiday) and will check who the ref is tomorrow. Hold fire on anything other than the bet listed beneath until then.

Worth a small punt: BTTS & Real Sociedad to win (4.5)

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