Midweek Copa del Rey betting previews: 14 -16 Jan

14 Jan

COPADELREY

Atletico Madrid v Valencia

Suggested bet: Valencia + 1.5 Asian handicap (1.75 best price)

We know how good Atletico Madrid are in general, and in particular at home, but Valencia deserved the draw they got in the first leg of this tie, showing good intensity in the process.

Albeit under a different coach, Valencia also held and matched Atletico for an hour or so when the teams last met at the Vicente Calderon in the league. Though I must point out that Atletico eventually won 3-0.

Valencia’s new coach, despite suffering his first defeat as Che coach in Vigo last weekend, champions playing with intensity, like his counterpart Simeone, and the team have looked better since.

Given that they fought for 90 minutes in a, surely, physically draining game against Barcelona, you have to think that Atletico’s regular starters will be more tired than Valencia’s.

Given the above, Los Colchoneros will either field a very tired 11 or, more likely, a mixture of tired starters and backup players.

With surely a few tired players on show, Atletico might be happy to just win 1-0.

Valencia could, of course, even take advantage of slightly fresher legs and sneak a draw but, more likely, a few tired Atletico legs might just take that 1-0 win.

Suggested bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.16)

As mentioned in the handicap bet reasoning, there could be some tired legs on show for the home side, but Atletico have kept clean sheets and won 1-0 in similar circumstances before.

The Valencia coach, Pizzi, is not known to be adventurous in away games and his side struggle to score goals.

The current aggregate score is 1-1, which is enough to take a side that has the best defence in Spain through to the next round.

a 1-0 or 2-0 Atletico Madrid win seems more likely than a high scoring win given potential tiredness.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis

Suggested bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

There should have been 4 or 5 goals in the first leg, with Athletic missing some great chances, but Betis winning 1-0.

Athletic, despite drawing a blank away to Real Sociedad, and in Seville, can score a few at the new (when can I stop calling it ‘New?’) San Mames, as evidenced in their 6-1 defeat of Almeria on Saturday.

I should think that Athletic will field a near or full strength team, as the Copa is a winnable target for them.

After their first leg frustration, Athletic should go for it from the off, so things like over 1,1.5 first half goal line, goal before 30:00 and over 1 first half goal line should be strongly considered by bettors.

Despite the new ground to factor in, Betis have won and scored a few in Bilbao before, and our boy Ruben Castro (and Molina) might just able to notch again.

In conclusion, Athletic may win 3 or 4-1, but I think it’s a great shot for over 2.5 goals.

Osasuna v Real Madrid

Suggested bet: Osasuna + 1.5 Asian line (1.91)

Ronaldo will likely not play after his award victory

Real Madrid have, by their standards, been unimpressive recently, particularly in away games.

Los Blancos often struggle in Pamplona, having to come from two goals down to draw 2-2 with a ten man Osasuna side a couple of months back. Last season, in the league, Real drew 0-0 here.

Osasuna hate Madrid and their partisan crowd, which is close to the pitch, seems to spur them on in these clashes.

Barcelona also often struggle against Osasuna in Pamplona, drawing 0-0 a few weeks ago.

Real Madrid are 2-0 up on aggregate, so they don’t even need to win this tie.

If Osasuna have to attack because they are 2-0 down, this could open the counter for Real Madrid, so this is the main risk in this bet.

But Real Madrid may field a weakened side, and if the full strength 11 struggles here and the backups don’t even need to win, this bet is the correct tactical play – win or lose.

Of course, it’s wise to wait for the Real Madrid 11, but you risk losing the price on this bet.

Getafe v Barcelona

Suggested bet: Getafe + 1.75 Asian Handicap (1.91)

The first leg ended 4-0, so unless Barca are giving Messi a run out at the Alfonso Perez, they should field a weakened team, certainly when you also factor in that the Catalans best 11 must be cream-crackered after playing Atletico in Madrid.

Getafe have beaten Barca here before, so a win on the night against a presumed weakened Barca side is not out of the question.

At 4-0, Barca don’t even need to win on the night, while a one goal margin win is enough for the club to be happy.

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