Round 22 La Liga Betting Previews

29 Jan

Charles

Granada v Celta Vigo

Sitting in 12th and 13th place respectively, this should be a relatively even match between Granada and Celta.

Granada (2.1) drew their last home game 0—0 against Osasuna and have only won three home games in 2013/14 La Liga competition. They did, however, thrash Valladolid 4-0 just before the Osasuna game, but then pretty much everyone puts three or four goals past Valladolid when they play away.

Celta (3.8), with Brazilian striker Charles banging the goals in, have improved recently, but are still not faring well on the road, losing their fourth league away game in a row to Espanyol a couple of weeks ago.

All in all, Granada are not trustworthy at home and Celta certainly aren’t away, but both teams have scored in the last three head to head clashes between these two and I’ll take a chance on the same happening again since we can have evens.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (2.0)

messi

Barcelona v Valencia

Barcelona (1.15) pretty much always win this fixture and, with little having changed at Valencia (26.0) since new coach Pizzi was appointed, this weekend shouldn’t be any different.

Los Che are capable of holding Barca to a two goal defeat, so Valencia + 2.25 has a little appeal at 2.02, but Malaga are not that different to Valencia in terms of strength these days and they lost 3-0 last weekend.

We can no longer trust over 1.5 first half goals and, as Barca often score against their opponents after the 30 minute mark at Camp Nou, cannot put our faith into the goal before before 30:00 bet either.

Both to score is not trustworthy, nor is over 3.5 match goals. Indeed, unless you’re prepared to chance a draw/Barca double result here, I can’t find a good value – or just appealing – bet.

Perhaps value will reveal itself before game time, or maybe I’ll just bet in-play.

levante

Levante v Rayo

Levante (2.25) are coming off the back of an amazing 3-2 defeat of Sevilla at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and, with second bottom Rayo (3.8) having lost in the cup here only two weeks ago and generally tasting defeat every week, I feel we have to back a home win here.

My punt has, however, been taken on the Asian line and reduced to ‘worth a punt’ status as a few of Levante’s starters played against Barca in their dead rubber second leg match midweek.

Worth a punt: Levante – 0.25 Asian handicap (1.91)

pedroleon

Getafe v Valladolid

Having had a legit goal ruled out, Getafe (2.0) were unfortunate to lose away to Almeria last weekend, while Valladolid (4.2) pulled of an impressive 1-0 home defeat of a tired looking Villarreal.

All in all, Getafe should have just about enough to beat a Valladolid side that has lost their last four away games and will miss key player Ebert – who wants to leave and says he isn’t mentally right to play.

Worth a punt: Getafe (2.0)

Rakitic2

Malaga v Sevilla

Well, annoyed after Sevilla (2.5) failed to beat Elche in their last away game, I was going to revert back to BTTS – a winner in the last nine Sevilla road games- against Malaga, but as the Anchovies have failed to score in their last five competitive games I’m going to chance my money on an away win instead.

Malaga (3.0), though fairly resolute defensively, are obviously gun shy, while Sevilla had won five on the bounce (in all competitions) prior to their game in Elche.

However, just in case this ends in a 1-1 draw and BTTS again, I’ve taken Sevilla draw no bet at a very fair price.

Recommendation: Sevilla draw no bet (1.8)

Elche

Elche v Almeria

Elche (2.0) should be able to edge out Almeria (4.2) due to home advantage, but they aren’t worth betting on at 2.0 and attention might be better turned to under 2.5 goals (1.73) – a winner in the last four Elche home games.

However, I opt not to bet on this game at all.

sergiogarcia

Betis v Espanyol

Betis (2.38) and their new coach were hammered 4-2 away to Celta last Friday evening, proving that, as expected, they are an exception to my never back against a new coach in his first league game theory.

Espanyol (3.4) rested a few players but, in any event, the regulars that did play used little energy in Tuesday night’s 1-0 Copa del Rey defeat to Real Madrid at the Bernabeu – a match in which Los Blancos took the lead in the sixth minute before ‘going through the motions’ in the remaining 84.

Over 2.5 goals may well be overpriced at 2.1 considering how leaky Betis are at the back, but I can’t even remember when the Seville based side won a league game and feel that you have to oppose them.

Recommendation: Espanyol + 0.25 Asian handicap (1.95)

Prieto

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad

Both teams were scheduled to play Copa del Rey football midweek, but Real Sociedad played no more than thirty seconds of uncontested football after their hosts, Racing, refused to compete in protest at not being paid for more than six months!

Simeone’s Colchoneros, on the other hand, fielded a large portion of their starters, enduring a grueling contest (in which their left-back suffered an injury) against an Athletic Bilbao side that had yet to lose at their new stadium until Atletico ran out 2-1 winners. The result wasn’t a fair reflection of the game, for what it’s worth.

In my eyes, Atletico look to have run out of a little steam recently and are struggling to score goals. Of course, you can argue that they got four away to Rayo last weekend, but wide-open Rayo concede bucket loads of goals to everyone so I wouldn’t read much into that.

In conclusion, Real Sociedad have improved a great deal after their Champions League ‘no show’ and are playing well and scoring lots of goals – even beating Atletico at the Vicente Calderon last season – so I think that we have to give them a handicap start here, particularly as they are well rested.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad + 1.5 Asian handicap (2.0)

adurizymunian

Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid

Real Madrid usually defeat Athletic in Bilbao, but the Basque’s have yet to lose a league game at their new San Mames stadium, even beating Barcelona here, and Ancelotti’s Los Blancos have been keeping clean sheets and winning 1-0 a lot recently.

So, with the short priced over goals hard to trust, it sounds like we should give the home side – who should be highly motivated and still have a league home record to preserve – a handicap start that gives us our money back if Madrid win by one goal.

Recommendation: Athletic + 1 Asian handicap (1.84)

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