Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Betting Preview

11 Feb

DiegoCosta

Atletico Madrid (3.3) v Real Madrid (2.38)

Held at the Bernabeu stadium, the first leg of this Copa del Rey semi-final ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for Real Madrid. Two of Real’s goals were fortuitous own goals, but Los Blancos deserved their victory.

So what went wrong with Atletico? Well, their game is based on collective hard work, with a stern defence that rarely concedes and a striker that is able to take one of the few chances he gets.

Against the big boys in particular, favourable low scoring outcomes came as a direct result of a peak Los Colchoneros squad playing to their strengths and believing in their manager’s system.

Super Copa included, in the three games they’ve played against Barca this season, Atletico have twice drawn 0-0 and once 1-1. When they defeated Real Madrid in La Liga earlier this season, it was 1-0.

What seems to have gone wrong recently – and it was always inevitable – is that Atletico, in comparison to Barcelona and Real Madrid, have little depth in their squad and, after playing league and cup games for four consecutive weeks, have suffered from fatigue and injuries.

So, once again, credit to Real Madrid for beating Atletico 3-0 last week but, part of the equation was that Atletico were simply too tired and not able to impose their game.

Instead of Diego Costa taking one of his few chances and Courtois making heroic saves, Costa didn’t produce a meaningful effort on goal and the Belgian keeper saw shots deflected past him by his own players.

Brazilian midfielder Diego, who played for Atletico a year or so ago, is a wise addition on-loan to freshen things up offensively. But given that they didn’t look like scoring in their shock 2-0 defeat at Almeria last weekend, expecting an off-colour Atletico to defeat Real Madrid by three goals or more seems like pie in the sky.

But I wouldn’t recommend backing Real Madrid to win tonight either, because at this level I won’t bet on teams who don’t need to win on the night, particularly those who are 3-0 up on aggregate.

There is no magic cure to tiredness, but it’s not impossible that Atletico, with pride in mind and a further point to prove after defeat to Almeria in La Liga, could find that little bit of extra mental and physical strength required to secure in order a draw or better. As such, Atletico + 0.25 Asian handicap is one to consider at 1.98.

Alternatively, though no longer overpriced, under 2.5 goals is a brave but fully justifiable punt at 1.99. Indeed, Real Madrid don’t need to score and Atletico have had trouble doing that recently.

In conclusion, I’m going to wait for team news before making a decision, but hope that you’ve found this article a useful read.
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