Sunday’s Round 24 La Liga Betting Previews

14 Feb

castro5

Granada v Real Betis

Currently situated in 16th position in the La Liga standings, Granada (2.2) are only three points above the drop zone and will therefore need to make sure they win most of their remaining home games to ensure survival.

Indeed, after Granada lost 1-0 away to Espanyol last weekend, despite having a one man advantage for more than half of the game, they will see this game with bottom club Betis as a must win fixture.

Of course, every game is a must win for Betis (3.6), but last week they came nowhere near recording victory after a 5-0 thrashing at Valencia’s Mestalla stadium.

In conclusion, we have to expect a home win today, but whilst current form is more important, it cannot be ignored that Betis have won their last two head to head matchups in Granada.

Now, I’m not saying that Betis will avoid defeat this time, but it has spooked me a little and over 2.5 goals – a constant winner in Betis matches – might instead be your best bet at 2.1.

However, personally, I’ve only had a punt on Ruben Castro anytime. Castro is by far Betis’s best player and, with four goals in his last three games and three in his last two against Granada, looks like a good value pick to score again.

Worth a small punt: Ruben Castro anytime (3.5)

pedroleon

Getafe v Real Madrid

Failing to score for the third game in a row, Getafe (12.0) lost 2-0 away to Osasuna in their round 23 fixture. It was a result that left the Azulones in 15th place, just four points above the relegation places.

Real Madrid (1.3) defeated Villarreal 4-2 at the Bernabeu in an entertaining game last weekend, while midweek Los Blancos easily defeated Atletico Madrid 2-0 at the Vicente Calderon to progress to the Copa del Rey final 5-0 on aggregate.

In conclusion, Getafe will be fired up this clash and, since they beat Real Madrid 2-1 at the Alfonso Perez in 2012/13, the Azulones have more of chance than you might think.

However, last season’s result came at a time when Los Blancos were playing poorly and regularly dropping points, while the Real Madrid of 2013/14 rarely concedes goals and is joint top of the La Liga standings.

Ancelotti and his players will know that it’s 99.9% likely that the two teams level with his side on points – Atletico Madrid and Barcelona – will win their games this weekend, so it’s vital that they do the same.

Even without Ronaldo, who – bar his penalty double against Atleti – has been hitting most of his shots into row z anyway, Real should be able to win at the Alfonso Perez in 2013/14.

As we’ve seen many times this season, Los Blancos are quite happy to win road games by a 1-0 score, so we can’t trust them minus one goal, and we certainly can’t back them to win at 1.3.

Instead, I’ve gone with Real Madrid HT/FT at a decent 1.83 price. Quite honestly, I’m loathe to look through the stats of each of their games to see how many times they’ve been ahead at HT and FT, but I’m confident it’s enough to justify this bet.

Recommendation: Real Madrid HT/FT (1.83)

adurizymunian

Athletic Bilbao v Espanyol

Well, they got the point they wanted away to Celta Vigo last Monday, but it was a negative, long ball filled display from fourth placed Athletic Bilbao (1.65).

Espanyol (6.0), who i’d backed to win, managed to defeat Granada 1-0 in Barcelona last Friday night, despite being reduced to ten men for most of the game. Credit then for Aguirre and his charges, who now sit in 10th place in the league table.

In conclusion, sure, we should expect Athletic to defeat Espanyol given that they are extremely strong at home, but this fixture always has goals in it (the last six head to head clashes have all seen three goals or more scored) and that’s what I’ve bet on.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.94)

Pizzi

Sevilla v Valencia

They took the lead through Moreno’s deflected shot, but Sevilla (2.15) were ultimately put to the sword by Barcelona at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan last weekend, losing 4-1.

After their stunning 3-2 upset of Barcelona at Camp Nou, Valencia (3.6) continued their improved recent form by thrashing Real Betis 5-0 at the Mestalla.

In conclusion, the form book says that Valencia + 0.5 is the bet to take at 1.83, as Sevilla have lost three games in a row and have not won in five, while Valencia are undefeated in three having drawn with Espanyol and beaten Barca and Betis.

However, the over goals also screams out to be backed here, as Sevilla’s last three games have contained 15 goals and Valencia’s 14! Also, four out of the last five head to clashes between these two have contained three goals or more – including a 3-1 win for Valencia in the reverse fixture earlier this season.

I’ll see if the price holds on Valencia + 0.5, but I don’t think that it will on the overs and am backing that as my main pick now.

Finally, with four goals in his last three games, Valencia’s Paco Alcacer is worth a small punt as an anytime scorer.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

Worth a small punt: Alcacer anytime scorer (3.5)

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