Round 26 La Liga Betting Previews

27 Feb

adurizymunian

Athletic v Granada

By virtue of Muniain and Guillermo goals, Athletic (1.44) defeated Betis 2-0 in Seville last Sunday. It turned out to be an important result for the fourth placed Basques as the team beneath them, Villarreal, also won their round 25 fixture.

Surprisingly, Granada (8.25) took the lead away to Valencia through Piti’s second half strike last weekend. Ultimately they lost 2-1, but It was a good performance and Los Che’s winner came deep into injury time.

In conclusion, Athletic should get back on track on home soil with a win and, with – 1 Asian line only priced between 1.64 and 1.7, I’ve taken the chance that they’ll lead at half and full time.

Recommendation: Athletic HT/FT (2.16)

ebert

Malaga v Valladolid

Three points separate these two in this 17th v 18th clash, so both will be desperate to win. Of course, in modern football, this kind of scenario can also lead to a both teams are too scared to lose type of clash, with 0-0 the end result.

As such and considering that four out of the last five head-to-head contests have been draws, Valladolid + 0.5 and under 2.5 goals have appeal.

However, both teams to score is also worth consideration, and when I’ve been burned on BTTS punts in both teams need to win scenario’s in the past, the odds have generally been 1.65 or less.

So, with both Malaga (1.85) and Valladolid each (5.0) having scored in the last three H2H’s and even money on offer, both teams to score is a fair shout at evens, and that’s what I’ve taken. Hopefully this won’t be the wrong choice instead of Valladolid + 0.5 or under 2.5 goals.

Worth a punt: Both teams to score (2.0)

Riera

Levante v Osasuna

Levante (2.38) drew 1-1 away to Valladolid last weekend, while Osasuna (3.4) quickly put Atletio Madrid to the sword, with the game finished at 3-0 by half time.

Quite honestly, I thought it might end 0-0, 1-0 or 0-1 and backed under 2.5 goals instead of Osasuna + 1.25 Asian handicap. Naturally, I wasn’t happy, particularly as I’d changed my mind about also recommending Osasuna draw no bet as a worth a small punt selection, deleting it off the preview. Heartbreaking, but on we go.

In conclusion, experience tells me that after defeating Atletico Madrid at home, Osasuna will probably lose to much weaker opposition away, but I just don’t want to bet on this game, sorry. The best games in round 26 are all on Sunday and, mostly, I’m saving my money for them.

sergiogarcia

Getafe v Espanyol

Getafe (2.7) drew 1-1 away to Celta last weekend, taking the lead and even managing to play a large portion of the game with ten men. Espanyol (3.0), on the other hand, lost 2-1 at home to Villarreal, with star striker Sergio Garcia seeing his penalty saved in injury time.

All in all, despite their resilient display last weekend, I’d be inclined to back oppose Getafe and back Espanyol + 0.5, particularly since this fixture is often one in which the home team loses, but the 1.5 price about that does not appeal, nor does 1.74 for + 0.25. I’m leaving this game alone.

Charles

Elche v Celta

Elche (2.55) lost 3-0 away to Real Madrid last weekend, while Celta (3.2) proved that their price was too short at 1.85 by failing to beat a ten man Getafe team in Vigo. My bad for backing Celta when the price didn’t appeal.

All in all, however, Celta looked good going forward at times and I’d like to back them + 0.5 this weekend, but not at 1.55. Maybe I should take Celta + 0.25 at 1.78 instead, but I’ve decided to leave this game alone.

bruno

Villarreal v Real Betis

Most pleasingly, fifth placed Villarreal (1.44) won 2-1 at Espanyol lost weekend to give me a winning bet. Betis (9.0), on the other hand, lost 2-0 at home to Athletic Bilbao – which resulted in another winning punt for me.

All in all, the price is perhaps too big on Betis, but then they played Rubin in Russia on Thursday evening, so we better ignore any chance of an upset and punt on the home side.

Villarreal – 1 Asian line is too short at 1.64, so I’ll go with the Yellow Submarines HT/FT at a more attractive 2.05. They’ll certainly look to put Betis away quickly.

Recommendation: Villarreal HT/FT (2.05)

DiegoCosta

Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid

There was always a good chance of Atletico (3.5) failing to win in Pamplona for a variety of reasons, but their 3-0 defeat was, indeed, a shocker. Real Madrid, as you would expect, won 3-0 at home to Elche, with a few players rested.

All in all, the only thing that should put any punter off backing Real Madrid (2.15) is the fact that they played in the Champions League midweek and Atletico didn’t. Of course, coupled with a fresh Diego Costa to take one of the few chances he gets, given this, it’s possible that Atletico will recover the general intensity and defensive solidarity that they’ve used to defeat Real Madrid in the past.

Even still, I’m tempted to back Real Madrid draw no bet but, all things considered, I’m chancing that the extra game factor and needs must leads to Atletico scoring at least once, along with Real Madrid doing the same.

However, just about to post my previews I’ve noticed that BTTS has gone from 1.87 to 1.7, which is perhaps a little too short. Instead, I’ll go with over 2.5 goals at a more attractive price. But If your bookmaker offers a similar price on both, take BTTS.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.87)

Prieto

Sevilla v Real Sociedad

Playing after a midweek Europa League game, Emery’s Sevilla (2.05) did just enough to win 1-0 away to Rayo in round 25. It wasn’t a good result for your writer since he’d recommended over 2.5 goals. Real Sociedad (3.9), of course, defeated Barcelona 3-1. At least I had a winner there in the Basques + 1.5.

In conclusion, Sevilla haven’t won a league home game since January, they played in Europe midweek and La Real didn’t, Real Sociedad are in much better form and beat Sevilla at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan last season = back Real Sociedad + 0.5 Asian handicap (or double chance if you prefer).

I would also expected BTTS and over 2.5 goals to yield profit, but there’s a bigger price about my bet.

Recommendation: Real Sociedad + 0.5 Asian handicap (1.98)

messi

Barcelona v Almeria

I thought that they might draw given their recent record at San Sebastian and participation in the Champions League midweek, but Barcelona (1.06) went one step further by losing 3-1 to Real Sociedad in round 25.

Almeria (46.0), meanwhile, drew 0-0 at home to Malaga last weekend. It wasn’t a good game to watch, what can I say.

In conclusion, obviously, we should expect Barca to defeat Almeria, so it’s just a matter of finding a bet relating to that.

Sadly, however, the usual favourites – Barca – 2.5, over 1.5 first half goals, over 3.5 match and to win both halves – are all far too short priced to interest me, so It’s going to have to be in-play on this one.

Pizzi

Rayo v Valencia

I had two bets in mind for Rayo (3.5) v Sevilla last week: Over 2.5 goals and Rayo + 0.5. In a dire game, Sevilla won 1-0. I went with the overs, but at least didn’t have to feel like i’d chosen the wrong bet out of my final two selections – jut both. So, I just wasn’t winning on that game, and that’s ok.

Anyway, Valencia (2.25) played in Europe midweek and, of course, 18th placed Rayo didn’t. So, can we give needs must Rayo a handicap start or should I go for the overs again?

Well, players and managers come and go over the years, but the last five Rayo v Valencia matches have all contained three goals or more, while six out of the last eight Rayo (league) home matches have passed the same mark this season, so I’m hoping this weekend will follow suit. Rayo + 0.5 is virtually the same price but not a fair one. Goals, please.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

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3 Responses to “Round 26 La Liga Betting Previews”

  1. Leo February 28, 2014 at 5:40 pm #

    Nice tips and great write up! I have a request.. Can you always include team style of play in you subsequent preview/write up,they help me in making decision on “corner bet” e.g,some days ago,in your preview of is it villareal or valencia vs Celta vigo match,you said both team like keeping possession,so i went for under 11 corner in an acca and it won! 😀

    • JCLaLiga February 28, 2014 at 11:46 pm #

      Thanks for your kind words. To answer, where possible I will, but If I wrote ‘Villarreal, who play possession football.’ every week it would get a bit repetitive. Good luck this weekend!

      • Leo March 2, 2014 at 7:47 pm #

        Hahaha you are actually right! Thanks once again! For today tips! I put a large sum on over 2.5 in real madrid game,and was really flabbergasted it’s a winning bet in first half! 😀

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