Round 29 La Liga Betting Previews

21 Mar

Celta Vigo (2.1) v Malaga (4.0)

Now in 14th place, Malaga can breathe a little more after their surprise win at Osasuna last time out, but they still need the points more than 11th placed Celta do.

However, winning two away games in a row seems a stretch for the Anchovies and I’d therefore favour Celta.

Enrique’s Celta, though, cannot be fully trusted to win, so I’m leaving the match winner markets alone.

If anything, under 2.5 goals sounds about right as Celta’s slow possession game mixed with Malaga’s low goal count should ensure a low scoring affair.

Worth a punt: Under 2.5 goals (1.8)

Granada (2.05) v Elche (4.2)

Situated 12th and 13th respectively, one point separates Granada and Elche. Given this, a point suits everybody, I guess. However, Elche are a poor away side so betting on Granada seems sensible too!

All in all, though I’m loathe to look up the statistics, enough Elche games have gone over 2.5 goals to make this worth a little punt at the price.

Worth a small punt: Over 2.5 goals (2.55)

Espanyol (1.75) v Levante (6.25)

Sounds like a home win to most on first glance, I reckon, but as soon as I clapped eyes on Espanyol at 1.75 I was thinking of opposing them.

Ok, they won last time in a similar scenario, but historically this team cannot fully be trusted at short prices in home games. Also, 6.25 priced Levante are 8th in the table, while Espanyol are 10th.

This is generally a BTTS game and probably overs too, but the 90 minutes pricing seems wrong to me and I’m betting on the handicap markets instead.

Worth a punt Levante + 0.5 Asian handicap (2.33)


Valladolid (2.4) v Rayo (3.25)

Out of the two, Rayo – who have dragged themselves out of the relegation zone – are in better form, but the oddsmakers appear to agree and have not left much room for maneuver.

Instead, with this being a high scoring fixture, I opt for a small punt on the over goals market.

Worth a small punt: Over 2.5 goals (2.0)

Athletic Bilbao (1.4) v Getafe (10.0)

Of course, you would expect Athletic to win this game, but 17th placed Getafe desperately need the points and won at the old San Mames a couple of years ago.

I’m not predicting an upset, but I can’t see any value in Athletic minus one goal and opt to instead bet in-play on this game.

Osasuna (3.25) v Sevilla (2.5)

Besides the Bernabeu, Camp Nou and Vicente Calderon, the last place you want to visit after playing 120 minutes of extra football midweek is Pamplona.

As such, I’m opposing Sevilla – who recently progressed to the Europa League quarter-finals after a penalty shoutout defeat of Betis on Thursday evening.

Pity about the less than evens price for this, but I think it’s the right play. Also, for what it’s worth, Sevilla have only won in one of their last six visits here – in 2009.

Recommendation: Osasuna + 0.5 Asian handicap (1.86)

Real Betis (6.7) v Atletico Madrid (1.62)

Of course, Betis have been in good form recently and I’m starting to dream about them avoiding relegation, but since they played 120 minutes of extra football midweek, plus the mental pain of losing the penalty shootout to Sevilla after being ahead in it, I think we have to back Atletico here.

Recommendation: Atletico Madrid – 1 Asian handicap (2.08)

Valencia (2.15) v Villarreal (3.7)

I’d like to back Villarreal + 0.5 here, but they have players missing and will likely field a weakened defence, so I’m not confident enough to place a bet.

If I could get more than 1.75 on BTTS (1.91 is what i wanted) then I’d take a chance on that but, as things stand, there’s no point betting for sake of it, so I won’t.

I’ll probably bet in-play, however, so keep your eyes peeled on Twitter when the game is on.

Real Madrid (2.45) v Barcelona (3.3)

Well, I must have written 20 + lengthy Clasico previews in the last few years, so this time (and probably the next), I’m sparing myself the bother.

Put simply, I think that Real Madrid are the better team in better form. If I could back them on a draw no bet basis at 1.73 or better I’d go max bet.

However, 1.63 is the best on offer – at 888.com, who I don’t have an account with, so I look elsewhere.

Of course, as its won 14 times in a row, both teams to score in the standout bet, but at 1.4 it’s too short for most, me included.

Now, I do like Madrid to win and have met myself halfway between draw no bet and a home win by backing Real Madrid – 0.25 Asian handicap at 1.9.

For those unaware, that means that we win at 1.9 if Madrid win, but lose half of our stake if they only draw. Of course, if they lose our full stake goes to the company involved.

Ancelotti’s Los Blancos are good at keeping clean sheets, anyway, but if you fancy a BTTS punt, that mixed with a Real Madrid win seems a fair bet at 4.0.

Recommendation: Real Madrid – 0.25 Asian handicap (1.9)

Worth a punt: BTTS and Real Madrid to win (4.0)

Almeria (3.6) v Real Sociedad (2.25)

Put simply, I want to back Real Sociedad on a draw no bet basis here, but not at 1.62. Otherwise, nothing stands out so, unless the price goes out between now and Monday, I’ll bet in-play or not at all.

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