JC’s Top Bets for Round 32 La Liga

3 Apr

adrian

Atletico Madrid v Villarreal

Of course, Atletico played Barca midweek in the Champions League, drawing 1-1 at Camp Nou, and they’ll meet the Catalans again on Wednesday. Besides the first leg scoreline, the big news is that key player Diego Costa is likely to miss the second leg, along with this game against Villarreal.

Key midfielder Gabi is suspended this weekend, while star wideman Arda Turan is also expected to miss out.

All in all, Atletico need to defeat Villarreal if they are to remain top of the La Liga standings, but they’ll miss 2/3 of their key players and will likely rest others.

Under these circumstances, I’d like to back the Yellow Submarines + 1.5 or 1.25, but Villarreal haven’t played well recently, winning only one of their last six games, and they’ll miss key attacker Giovani dos Santos.

Also, the prices for such bets – 1.5 and 1.66 respectively – don’t appeal. Instead, given that Villarreal will likely be happy with a 0-0 and Atletico content to scrape a 1-0 win with players missing and a busy schedule, under 2.5 goals appears to be the best bet at an acceptable price.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals (1.83)

castro5

Barcelona v Real Betis

Well, if you’ve read the first preview and watch world football, I needn’t point out Barca’s schedule. In terms of injuries and suspensions, the Catalans will miss Valdes, Pique, Dos Santos, Cuenca, Puyol and Alba.

So, that’s both of their centre backs, their left back and goalkeeper missing. Of course, I don’t expect Betis to win and appreciate that they are not as good offensively this year as they were last, but head-to-head they always score against Barca and, as bad as the Andalucían’s are, it looks like a good time to play Tata’s boys.

Indeed, despite his penalty miss in Betis’ home loss to Malaga last Monday night, Ruben Castro has a very good record of scoring against Barcelona.

All in all, I expect a home win with plenty of goals, and I’ve just got to have a bet on Ruben Castro at the price.

Recommendations: Barcelona to win & BTTS (2.65) Ruben Castro anytime scorer (10.0)

Prieto

Real Sociedad v Real Madrid

Of course, after their 3-0 defeat of Dortmund in the Champions League midweek, Real Madrid have played a game extra compared to their Basque opponents.

Beyond known absentees like Khedira, Marcelo and Jese and Arbeloa, Real Madrid have a full squad of players to choose from for their trip to San Sebastian to face Real Sociedad.

Bar the on-loan Granero, Real Sociedad, on the other hand, also have a full squad of players to choose from, including Xabi Prieto- a player who’s scored six of the last eight goals the Basques have netted against Real Madrid.

All in all, La Real haven’t beaten Real Madrid in six attempts, but they have drawn two of them and, given the extra game factor, should be capable of getting another draw or better this time.

However, I don’t want to bet on La Real double chance at a 2.5 (and falling) price and have instead chanced draw no bet.

Finally, this is a fixture that always has a high goal count, so your main punt should be more of the same.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals (2.2)

Worth a punt: Real Sociedad draw no bet (4.6)

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One Response to “JC’s Top Bets for Round 32 La Liga”

  1. coryobrien2013 April 3, 2014 at 10:20 pm #

    Reblogged this on coryobrienblog.

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