JC’s Top Bets For Round 33 La Liga

10 Apr

bruno

Villarreal v Levante

Well, since they’ve lost five out their last six games, it looks like Levante have achieved their seasonal goal of avoiding relegation. Some players will be sold, others will go back to the parent club etc, so effort levels tend to drop in such a scenario.

Villarreal, however, have also been in prom form recently, drawing games they should have won, but ‘The Yellow Submarines’ are still in with a chance of qualifying for next seasons Europa League and enjoy home advantage against Levante.

All in all, the price about Villarreal appears to be too short, but I wouldn’t be comfortable laying them against a Levante side that appears to have given up.

The over/under goals leans more towards unders with Dos Santos likely injured, but the best conclusion I can make here is that a Villarreal -1 Asian line bet should return stakes worst case. Only a mdeium punt on this, however.

Worth a punt: Villarreal – 1 Asian handciap (1.81)

messi

Granada v Barcelona

Part of me thinks that Barca will want to put on a performance after losing to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League, and that I should bet on the Catalans HT/FT at 1.75, but then there’s a cup final coming up and a potential banana skin for Tata’s boys this weekend.

Of course, Barca will likely have to defeat Granada in order to stay close to Atletico in the title race, but they played midweek when their hosts didn’t and will surely rest players this weekend, with an eye on the midweek Copa del Rey final against Real Madrid.

So, all in all, this looks like a good time to apply a handicap start to a fully rested Granada side, particularly as they are only three points above the relegation zone and not yet safe from relegation.

Recommendation: Granada + 1.5 Asian Handicap (2.16)

adrian

Getafe v Atletico Madrid

Getafe conceded a last minute goal to lose away to Elche last weekend, which puts them into the relegation places, while Atletico took a first half lead at home to Villarreal, before defending the game out.

All in all, as Diego Costa’s participation is in doubt and considering that Los Colchoneros played a tiring game against Barca midweek, there’s enough reason to give a Getafe side that is now in the bottom three, and needs to get something out of this game, a handicap start.

After all, as we saw against Villarreal and in a lot of Atleti away games this season, Simeone’s boys are very happy with a 1-0’s. Indeed, at this stage of the season, with the title race in their hands, winning is all that counts.

Recommendation: Getafe + 1.25 Asian Handicap (1.8)

rubencastro3

Real Betis v Sevilla

I was delighted with Ruben Castro anytime at 10.0 last week, but there isn’t the same value in this game and my guess is that it’s time to revert to the old derby favourite.

You all know that Betis are bottom of the table and that a Sevilla side in red-hot form are trying to usurp Athletic Bilbao for fourth place, but Castro and co are at least now putting up more of a fight and scoring goals in the process, while Sevilla have played an extra game midweek, against Porto in the Europa League.

All in all, as a Betis fan and considering that the game will be played on my Birthday, I hope it’s a home win, but my honest conclusion is that both teams will score. Indeed, this was the bet to take for several Seville derbies in a row, but in the last league meeting between the two I knew that Betis couldn’t be trusted to score and recommended over 2.5 goals instead (Sevilla won 4-0).

This time, it’s different, I think. Pity about the price, but do I go for what I think will win in BTTS or guess at over 2.5 just because it’s a better price? I won’t do many bets at 1.67, but got to stick with what I fancy most this time.

Recommendation: Both teams to score (1.67)

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One Response to “JC’s Top Bets For Round 33 La Liga”

  1. coryobrien2013 April 12, 2014 at 12:11 am #

    Reblogged this on coryobrienblog.

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