Archive | October, 2014

Villarreal v Almeria

19 Oct


Head-to-head, Villarreal have won four of their last six matches against Almeria, and three in a row at El Madrigal.

Interestingly, Villarreal have lost two of their three home La Liga games in 2014/15, while Almeria have won 2/3 away! The Yellow Submarines have also conceded in every game at El Madrigal and Almeria have scored in 2/3 away. However, Villarreal’s two losses were to Barcelona and Real Madrid, while Almeria won away at crisis clubs Real Sociedad and Deportivo.

Still, all in all, the above makes for interesting reading and makes BTTS and Almeria + 1.25 look like fair punts at 23/20 (now 5/6) and 15/14 respectively, but then under 2.5 goals has stronger basis for a bet.

Indeed, with five out of the last six clashes between these two going under 2.5 goals, five out of six the same specifically at El Madrigal, two out of three Villarreal home games containing less than three goals in 2014/15 and Almeria’s three road games exactly the same, the overall 5/7 under 2.5 goals games for each team in 2014/15 makes under 2.5 goals look like a good bet.

Perhaps I’m being over paranoid, but I’m a bit concerned that Almeria will score, and am happy with three wins and a loss on the website picks. Besides, the price has gone from 11/10 to 11/8 on this bet. Why such a big move? Smart money or last game chasers? More reason for non-betting pick, perhaps, but this is worth a read.

Non-Betting Pick: Under 2.5 goals at 11/8)