Archive | November, 2014

Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar

19 Nov

After four straight losses, defending A-League champions Brisbane Roar defeated Newcastle Jets 4-0 on the road to earn their first win of the season. While it’s fair to say that their hosts didn’t offer much resistance and barely had a shot on target, the Roar put on an impressive offensive display, particularly in the second half, and it seems fair to assume that their confidence will have received a boost as a result.

Melbourne Victory, on the other hand, started their season off with a bang by beating Western Sydney Wanders 4-1. That was followed by 1-1 draw away to a strong Adelaide team, a come from behind 5-2 defeat of neighbours Melbourne City, a 2-0 defeat of Wellington Phoenix and a 2-2 draw away to Newcastle Jets. Most recently, the Victory spurned several first half chances to draw 0-0 away to Sydney FC.

All in all, both sides have good offences and the Roar look to be back in form, so both teams to score looks like a good bet. However, at 13/20 it’s too short for my money and it seems best to back either over 2.5 goals at 4/5 or follow the Brisbane momentum and back the Roar + 0.5 at 0/0 instead.

Whilst very entertaining and full of goals in general, in my brief experience of watching, the A- League is also full of amazing misses when the pressure gets to each team in big games – see Sydney FC’s last two games for evidence, both ending 0-0 when goals were expected – so i’ll chance the handicap instead.

Worth a punt: Brisbane Roar + 0.5 at 11/12 with Bet Victor

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Cordoba v Deportivo

7 Nov

aguilar

Now managed by Miroslav Djukic – a decent defender who missed crucial penalties during his playing days and also had a failed management stint at Valencia – Cordoba, as they’d done continually under former boss Albert Ferrer, drew 1-1 at home in Djukic’s first game in charge.

Cordoba then impressed and scored twice in a 4-2 defeat at Atleti in Djukic’s second game in charge.

Depor beat Valencia 3-0 after a terrible run of form, then drew 0-0 at Espanyol and people assumed that their momentum would lead to a home defeat of Getafe. However, Getafe were in decent/improved form themselves and won 2-1 at the Riazor (I tipped over 2 goaline).

All in all, then, it’s an improved Cordoba against a seemingly back to losing Depor. However, despite their poor display v Getafe, I’ve seen enough over the years to be aware that Depor could easily get a result in Cordoba, and there’s no way that I’d back a team (Cordoba at 5/4) who haven’t yet won a game in 2014/15 and are collectively inferior to their opponents.

All in all, BTTS has won in 4/5 Cordoba home games and Depor have scored in all bar two of their games this season, so that looks like a strong bet.

Now, my guess is that Depor will score, and since Cordoba – as mentioned – haven’t won a game yet, Depor + 0.25 AH looks best over BTTS.

But then maybe Cordoba will show further improvement, Depor will slump and i’ll regret not watching some of the game before betting in-play – hence no website tip.

Anyway, I hope you enjoyed reading this and good luck if you have a bet.

JC

My Absence

2 Nov

Apologies for the lack of e-mails in the last few days, I’ve had some serious potential problems that should now be ok, but are still a concern and have pretty much ruined Wednesday to now for me. Indeed, after the usual 8 days in a row stint of working my night job, it’s a bit soul destroying to have to do another 8 after you’ve had a bad time on your days off.

Anyway, ‘heart-on-sleeve’ stuff aside, let’s have a quick review of recent losing bets.

Cagliari v AC Milan – Pick Over 2.5 goals at 1.79.
Result: 1-1

What can I learn: Well, BTTS was a slightly stronger bet compared to over 2.5 goals, but it was 11/20 and too short for a bet. The game was 1-1 at half time too, so a frustrating beat. I should have used lower stakes for non- La Liga, so I’ll apply that in future and we’ll get revenge on another Cagliari game down the line.

Barcelona v Celta – Pick BTTS at 2.05
Result: 0-1

What can I learn: Barca are truly off the boil and Messi has seemingly lost a little pace and his confidence too. Otherwise, play that game ten times and Barca would score in 9/10. I was and still am gutted about this game.

Perhaps, also, it was another pointer that I should do more asian handicaps over goals as Celta + 2.5 would have romped.

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla – Pick BTTS at 1.73
Result: 1-0

What can I learn: Athletic are back, and the dynamic is that they’re winning now, not BTTS. Even still, you’d have expected the then 2nd placed Sevilla to at least get a draw.

Perhaps Sevilla playing away in the cup midweek didn’t help – which is a bone of contention and slight embarrassment on my part as I searched google for Copa del Rey fixtures last Monday before posting my tip, found a bleacher report article that said all ties to be played in December bar Real Madrid’s and placed my BTTS bet in Athletic v Sevilla.

Days later I noticed Sevilla winning in-play in the cup! Apologies, I was stunned.

Anyway, think I’ll introduce a rolling acca soon, as suggested by a member, but the main thing I have to learn is that stakes need to come closer together. Indeed, winning five quid bets and losing 25 quid punts has been depressing. 5/7 bets correct, but a pittance made fiscally.

Speak soon and stick with it, we’re constantly learning,

JC