Wednesday’s La Liga previews – 23/09/15

23 Sep

apas

Celta Vigo v Barcelona, 19:00

In a shock result, Celta beat Barca 1-0 at Camp Nou last season, but lost the reverse fixture 1-0 in Vigo. Obviously, each game was low scoring, mainly because both teams play short passing, possession football. Sure, Barca play a little more direct at times these days, but it’s not enough of a difference to make the 4/7 priced over 2.5 goals worth chancing in my eyes.

Of course, all four of Celta’s La Liga games in 2015/16 have seen three or more goals, but only two of Barca’s league contests have passed the over 2.5 goals mark (at home to Levante – always a walkover – and a 2-1 win away to Atleti) and the Catalans’ 1-0 wins v Athletic and Malaga were not inspiring.

Barca’s front three are just not firing on all cylinders right now and with Celta still undefeated in 2015/16, and having just beaten Sevilla 2-1 at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, the bet for my money is to give Celta a handicap start that covers a potential one goal loss.

Recommendation: Celta + 1.25 AH at 1.8 (Take + 1 if less than 1.75)

eibar

Levante v Eibar, 19:00

Levante haven’t won a game yet, drawing two and losing two, while Eibar have toppled Granada and Athletic, losing to Atletico Madrid and drawing with Malaga.

As such, the simple answer is Eibar + 0.25 at 9/10, especially since they haven’t lost on the road yet this season. However, whilst that’s the sensible bet, I’ve got my heart set on something goals related too.

Now, only one of Eibar’s four games have contained three goals or more, with 2/4 the case for Levante, but each H2H meeting contained three goals or more last season and, well, I like chancing big priced overs/BTTS.

Half stake on each: Eibar + 0.25 at 9/10 & over 2.5 goals at 7/4

leo

Rayo Vallecano v Sporting Gijon, 19:00

Rayo have won one, drawn one and lost two games in 2015/16, while Sporting have won one, drawn two and lost one. H2H, the last five games between these two have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals, but they haven’t played each other in three years so we can’t consider this relevant. Could still happen, of course, but 19/20 isn’t an appealing price for a 2/4 overs vs a 1/4 overs game in 2015/16.

All in all, Rayo tend to fail to beat teams around their own level at home, yet win away – like 1-0 away to Sporting last time out, which came after 3-1 loss at home to Depor – so the pick here is for Sporting to avoid defeat.

However, Sporting play their second away game in just three days, so stakes should be reduced.

Worth a punt: Sporting + 0.25 at 21/20


adurizymunian

Athletic Bilbao v Real Madrid, 20:00

Well, a big game indeed. Athletic won the Spanish Super Cup and at San Mames – old and new – they’ve beaten and drawn with Real Madrid a few times in recent years.

Form wise, Athletic lost away to Villarreal in their last game, but then that came a few days after a Europa League game and at home the Basque’s are a lot stronger.

Real Madrid – after Ronaldo inspired thrashings of Espanyol and Shakhtar Donetsk – were almost lucky to beat Granada at the Bernabeu last Saturday – seeing a legit goal ruled out for their opponents before they were granted an offside goal to lamely win 1-0.

Indeed, if Ronny’s hitting row z with his shots – like against Granada and prior to the games I mentioned above – Madrid are a 1-0 team. If he’s on form, they’ll score as many as he gets + 1. How do we know which one we’re getting? We don’t and that makes it hard.

In conclusion, with star striker Aduriz fit and Raul Garcia to play, Athletic have the firepower to compete, and we know that they can beat the big boys at San Mames – evidenced by a 4-0 defeat of Barca in the Super Cup and a 1-0 defeat of Real Madrid last season here – so the Basque’s with a handicap start looks best.

Recommendation: Athletic +1 AH at 1.75

unaiemery

Las Palmas v Sevilla, 21:00

Neither team has won a game so far, with both losing at home last weekend, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game ends in a draw. Probably a BTTS since Sevilla away games tend to produce that outcome, whilst considering that most of their regular defenders are injured, but a 1.73 shot at best and not appealing enough since Las Palmas play five at the back. 0-0 would be fine for them.

In a game that looks like a draw, backing Las Palmas + 0.5 looks best, but another 1.73 bet. Sure, I’ve taken a 1.75 price in Athletic v Real Madrid, but I fancy that bet more.

All in all, no bet in this game, but I shall certainly watch and probably bet in-play.

bruno

Malaga v Villarreal, 21:00

The Anchovies have drawn two games 0-0 and lost two 1-0, while Villarreal have won three and drawn one, with all of their games seeing both teams score and 3/4 over 2.5 goals.

H2H, 5/6 games between these two have seen both teams score – and that was my instinct when looking at this fixture- but then Malaga haven’t scored a goal in 2015/16 so BTTS can’t be justified.

You can argue that everyone scores against the Yellow Submarines, but the clearest angle is deducing that Malaga haven’t won yet and Villarreal haven’t lost.

We can’t get + 0.5 at a doable price to make the perfect pick, sadly, but Villarreal draw no bet is 17/20 and a decent bet.

Recommendation: Villarreal draw no bet at 17/20

All prices are accurate and the best – bar sites that most people haven’t heard of out don’t use – available at the time of going to press.

Finally, only ever bet what you can afford to lose, thanks for reading and good luck.

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