Round 22 La Liga – 2015/16

28 Jan

messi

Barcelona v Atletico Madrid, 15:00

Both teams played in the cup midweek, with Atleti suffering a shock 3-2 home defeat to Celta and Barca beating Athletic Bilbao from a goal down.

Stats wise, Barca have won 5 straight games against Simeone’s mattress makers and you’d expect that to become 6. Head-to-head, BTTS Yes has won in 4/6 games between these two, with 3/6 seeing three goals or more. With 5 wins from 6 of those games, Barca only once won by more than a one goal margin.

All in all, you could chance the double result of draw/Barca or risk a -1 AH, but the only thing I’m comfortable with recommending is a home win. That’s an 8/15 shot and arguably too short for a single, but if you want my advice….

duda

Eibar v Malaga, 17:15

Eibar were unlucky to get hammered 5-2 away to Athletic Bilbao last weekend and are a decent side. Malaga, meanwhile, were very unlucky not take a point or more from their home match with Barca and –despite being without a win since the start of the year – are in improved form.

All in all, I’m not sure who’ll win this game, but Eibar’s last 6 games have seen at least 3 goals on each so over 2.5 goals might be worth a shot. Then again, 4 of Malaga’s last 6 games went under 2.5 goals, with at least 2 goals in 4/6, so those looking for a bet might be best suited risking no more than over 2 goal line, or BTTS – which has been a winner in Eibar’s last 5 games and Malaga’s last 3.

Worth a punt: BTTS at EVS

adurizymunian
Getafe v Athletic Bilbao, 17:15

Athletic have won 5 straight H2H games vs Getafe, but then the Basque’s played a tiring cup game at Camp Nou midweek and their Madrid-based hosts didn’t. That therefore clouds the betting decision, but 4 of Athletic’s last 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals, with Getafe having the same 4/6 mark, so three goals or more is my guess.

Worth a punt: over 2.5 goals at 23/20

bruno

Villarreal v Granada, 19:30

Villarreal had to rely on a late equaliser to draw 2-2 away to Espanyol last weekend, but they’re a good side and should defeat Granada. However, Granada’s last 7 games have each seen 3 goals or more and I’m inclined to follow that pattern, even if only 3 of Villarreal’s last 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at EVS

rubencastro4

Real Sociedad v Betis, 21:05

He lost his first game – in the cup away to Sevilla – but in La Liga the new Betis boss has drawn away to Villarreal and held Real Madrid to a draw in Seville. As such, he was a bit of momentum and his players are growing in confidence.

Real Sociedad, on the other hand, have only won 1 of their last 6 games and were trounced 5-1 at Sporting last Friday, so it’s a straightforward pick, win or lose.

Recommendation: Betis + 0.5 AH at 5/4

unaiemery

Sevilla v Levante, 11:00

Of course, Sevilla played in the cup midweek and Levante didn’t. Visitors Levante also have a decent H2H record vs their hosts, only losing one of the last six. Both teams have also scored in the last 4 of those games, along with in Levante’s last three games.
Levante’s last three games have also contained three goals or more, and all in all – whilst BTTS looks like the pick – I think there can be three or more goals in this early kick-off.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 3/4

lfp

Valencia v Sporting, 15:00

Neville’s Los Che played in the cup on Thursday night, while Sporting didn’t and are therefore better rested. Stats wise, and including cup matches, both teams have scored in 5/10 fixtures that G Nev has been in charge for – and 3 out of his last 4 -with 5/10 also seeing 3 goals or more.

As for Sporting, well, they scored in the Bernabeu and played as well as can be expected in their 5-1 loss, before thrashing Real Sociedad 5-1 at El Molinon in their next game. Stats wise, both teams have scored in 5/9 Sporting games, including 2 straight and 3/4, with 4 of their last 6 games seeing 3 goals or more and 5/9.

All in all, this is probably a BTTS yes game, but that’s 5/6 and best and I prefer the 10/11 priced overs.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 10/11

lfp

Las Palmas v Celta Vigo, 17:15

The big question here is which Celta turns up – the one that was hammered 3-0 at Rayo or the one that won 3-2 at Atletico Madrid in the cup a few days later?

For that reason, no bet or pick.

ronaldo1

Real Madrid v Espanyol 19:30

6 straight wins for Real Madrid in this fixture and that should become 7, even without Bale. However, betting wise, Madrid HT/FT is too short priced to back, over 2.5 team goals is the same and – 2 AH completes the treble of thoughts that don’t have good prices.

In search of something near evens, you could risk Los Blancos to win to nil at 17/20, or over 1.5 first half goals at 4/5, but no bet here – I’ll punt in-play.

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