Sunday’s La Liga Previews – 14/02/16

14 Feb

eibar

Eibar v Levante

Eibar have lost their last three games, but to Atletico, Malaga and Athletic, so they should fare a lot better against rock-bottom Levante. However, whilst I do expect a home win, the last eight Eibar games have seen three or more goals – and BTTS – in each, with zero wins for Eibar in the last three H2H v Levante and over 2,5 goals & BTTS in all of them.

Four of Levante’s last five games – or 4/6 – have seen BTTS & over 2.5 goals, so those two markets combined at 6/4 – or over just over 2.5 goals at 21/20 if you can’t get that bet – are the value and preferable to betting on a home win, especially as Eibar have a few injuries to content with.

lfp

Getafe v Atletico

Getafe haven’t scored against Atleti since 2011 and Los Colchoneros have won five straight against their neighbours. There seems no reason for this pattern to change, so while a 1-0 win for Simeone’s boys is always likely, at 4/7 for the straight win a – 1 Asian handicap is the bet to take at 21/20.

Otherwise, it should be an Atleti win and under 2.5 goals, but Simeone’s boys have conceded in their last three and whilst I don’t expect them to make it four v Geta, the -1 AH angle is the (in theory) safest bet I can offer.

messi

Barcelona v Celta Vigo

Of course, Celta defeated Barca 4-1 when the two met in Vigo earlier this season, so the Catalan side will be looking for revenge. Given that star striker – and ex-Barca man – Nolito is still injured, whilst factoring in that the Northern side have a lot of injuries to content with, it should be a very different story at Camp Nou.

With the best available players they had, Celta tried – in vain – to overcome a 4-0 first leg deficit at home to Sevilla in the cup midweek, so everything points to Barca winning comfortably. Style wise, Celta play short passing football – a little like Barca – and like to keep possession. That can sometimes lead to low scoring games, but I’d expect Barca to get three goals or more.

Three Barca goals or more, however, is too short priced to back at 1/3 and the Asian handicap line of Barca – 3 is higher than I’d like since I’m not confident on anything more than three-goal win for the Catalan side.

All in all, it’s not a great bet, but over 1.5 first half goals is the suggestion I’ve got at 8/11. If it’s only 1-0 or 0-0 at half-time, you could then bet again if you think more goals are coming.

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