Saturday’s La Liga Previews – Round 26

26 Feb

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Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid, 15:00

Getting down to business, this is a tough call betting wise. On one hand you’ve got a Real Madrid team that’s great at home and scores a lot of goals, while on the other you’ve got an Atleti side that’s the best road team in LaLiga and rarely concedes.

Recently, Atleti rarely score either, with their last two matches – one in the UCL – both ending 0-0. Results wise, both are way behind Barca in the title race and thus need to win, but it’s a derby game and as Atleti sit above Real in the standings, and since they’re the away team, Los Colchoneros will be happy with a point at the Bernabeu.

In conclusion, whilst they’re try to snare a goal on the counter or via a set-piece before defending the game out, Atleti can’t be trusted to score on current form, but their defence is so good they seem unlikely to concede more than twice, even against Real Madrid.

Head-to-head, 4 of the last 6 games between these two have seen under 2.5 goals, and with Real Madrid’s defence a little suspect recently, my choice is under goals over BTTS No to cover a potential 1-1 draw.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals at 5/6

Getafe v Celta Vigo, 17:15

A very simple angle in this one: Getafe haven’t scored a goal in 376 minutes of football, while Celta have a man in goalscoring form with John Guidetti, plus top boy Nolito is back.

As such, Getafe haven’t won in a while, so backing Celta on a draw no basis is – win or lose the bet – is the straightforward and logical pick to make.

Recommendation: Celta draw no bet @ 8/11


Sporting Gijon v Espanyol, 17:15

Caicedo misses out for Espanyol, which is a blow for the Barcelona-based team, but then he’s hardly been prolific in front of goal anyway. Form wise, in their last fixture, Espanyol defeated Deportivo 1-0 to snap a four-game losing streak.

Sporting, meanwhile, drew 1-1 away to Real Betis last weekend, are in decent form and should be able to edge out an Espanyol side that ranks 17/20 (1 being best) for away form. However, since the Espanyol players will have a little more confidence after winning last weekend, a goals-oriented bet is my preference.

Looking only at the last 6 games, 6/6 Sporting home have seen both teams score, with 5/6 over. Overall, it’s been BTTS in 5/6 and over 2.5 goals in 3/6. For Espanyol, they’ve seen over 2.5 goals in 4 straight away games and 4/6 – excluding a Copa tie that went over, with 4/6 BTTS. Overall, over 2.5 goals in 5/6 and BTTS in 3/6.

So, which one should we bet on – BTTS or over 2.5 goals? I’m sick of thinking about it, so either decide yourself or follow the scheme below.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 23/20 and 1/6th stake on 1-1 draw correct score cover bet at 6/1

Real Betis v Rayo Vallecano, 19:30

Rayo’s Miku has scored in 5 games straight and thus is a tempting anytime scorer at a 12/5 best price. However, the best bet – for my money – is over 2.5 goals. Last weekend I opted for the same bet in Betis’ game v Sporting and we lost after a 1-1 draw, with having 2 goals ruled out.

Now, I like revenge and will repeat a bet if I think I was unlucky to lose, the head-to-head records are good for overs (5/6 over) and Rayo games are constantly good for overs given their wide-open playing style.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 9/10


Real Sociedad v Malaga, 21:05

Real Sociedad are in excellent form, winning four games straight, including a 1-0 victory at Basque rivals Athletic Bilbao’s San Mames stadium last weekend. Key to this revival has been striker Jonathas, who’s netted four times over that period.

Of course, Malaga are a hard team to beat, as Real Madrid found out last weekend, and they have a good defence, but the 11/5 on offer for Jonathas to make it five goals in five games is appealing and worth a punt.

All in all, I’d favour Real Sociedad to win continue their good recent form, but i’d also want draw cover. With the draw no bet option too short for a single bet, I’ll take a smaller bet on Jonathas and leave it at that.

Worth a punt: Jonathas anyime scorer @ 11/5

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