Tuesday’s La Liga Previews – round 27

29 Feb

Simeone2

Atletico Madrid v Real Sociedad, 20:00

Of course, whilst a draw wouldn’t have been a surprise, Atleti pulled off a shock 1-0 win at neighbours Real Madrid last Saturday, with ex-Real Sociedad man Griezmann scoring the winner.

Interestingly, the Frenchman has scored in each of his last three games against his former employers, so an anytime scorer bet on that stat becoming four looks like a good call.

That said, the Griezmann to score/Atleti to win bet is only best priced at 3/2, so anyone interested may as well take less of a risk by just backing him to score anytime at 6/5.

All in all, as is the case with most Atleti matches, this game should end with less than three goals, but under 2.5 goals is a mere 4/6 at best and – whilst arguably value – a little too short for a single betting tip.

Atleti to win and under 2.5 goals makes sense at a 9/5 price, but then Real Sociedad are in great form and their striker Jonathas – who missed their last game – has been prolific recently.

Ideally, I’d like Real Sociedad + 1.5 AH as Atleti rarely score more than once and, like I said, La Real are in good form, but even + 1.25 is best priced at 1.77 and we’d only get a half payout if – as expected – Atleti win by a one-goal margin.

In conclusion, as risky as a scorer bet is, I’m taking a reduced stake bet on Griezmann to score at anytime. Of course, you can take Atleti to win and under 2.5 goals if you prefer (which is good value).

Worth a punt: Griezmann anytime scorer at 6/5

Valeron

Las Palmas v Getafe, 21:00

Last weekend I noted that Getafe hadn’t scored in 376 minutes of football, and it’s now 466 after the Azulones lost 1-0 at home to Celta Vigo. Using the simple logic that a team who hadn’t scored in a long time seemed very unlikely to win, my tip that day was Celta draw no bet at 8/11.

However, this time having stalemate cover on our side at an acceptable price isn’t possible as Las Palmas draw no bet is best priced at a mere 4/9 – too short for a single.

Instead, the 8/11 best priced under 2.5 goals and 10/11 best priced BTTS No are the value bets to choose from.
But which one? Well, while Las Palmas winning 3-0 seems a reach, it’s smartest – in principle -to back BTTS No given Geta’s scoring woes.

Recommendation: BTTS No at 10/11

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