Archive | March, 2016

Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – Round 31

31 Mar

Atletico v Betis

After losing 2-1 away to Sporting Gijon last time out, Simeone’s Atleti have pretty much conceded their La Liga title hopes for the season and will have one eye on their upcoming Champions league match with Barca at Camp Nou.

So, Atleti can take it easy v Betis in La Liga, while Barca can hardly do the same at home to Real Madrid in the Clasico. Los Colchoneros will also miss their regular centre-back pairing of Godin and Gimenez.

Betis + 1.5 handicap start then? Maybe, but so long as he starts the match (check before you bet) the easiest trend to follow is Griezmann anytime scorer as the Frenchman has netted in five straight La Liga games.

Recommendation: Griezmann anytime scorer at 4/5

GnevValencia

Las Palmas v Valencia

Gary Neville’s ill-fated spell as Valencia coach was brought to an end midweek, and Pako Ayestaran takes the reins until the end of the season (in theory). Now, while Rafa Benitez’s old assistant had already been back with Los Che in his old role for a few weeks, he’s still a new coach and, as such, I wouldn’t bet against him and his team.

The bad news for Pako on his debit is that Las Palmas are in good form, defeating both Villarreal and Real Sociedad away and only losing tight home games to Barcelona and Real Madrid in their last six fixtures on the island.

In conclusion, the angles are opposing Las Palmas or accounting for their good form and perhaps an increased effort from the Che players with GNev gone, BTTS (4/5). For my money, it’s a no bet.

Suarez

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Ok, on current from, Barcelona should beat Real Madrid and they likely will, but Los Blancos will be out for revenge after their 4-0 home loss in the last Clasico and 8/13 isn’t an appealing price for the Catalan side.

Now, the long BTTS streak (18+ in a row) was broken in the last Clasico and although it should, in theory, be harder for Real Madrid to score at Camp Nou than at the Bernabeu, I have a feeling that Zidane’s boys will get on the scoresheet.

As such, and particularly since I lost a max bet on over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet in the last Clasico, over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet is what I’d like to bet on, looking for revenge, but it’s a mere 8/13 price-wise, so forget that.

In conclusion, a Barca win and both teams to score is a bet I expect to win, but its 6/4 price is shorter than expected and I’ve also opted for over 3.5 match goals – at a fairer price – as a slight preference.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10

Worth a punt: Barca win & BTTS at 6/4

Nolito

Celta v Deportivo

The Galician derby and one that would have been a lot easier to pick had Deportivo not won their first game of 2016 last time out! Indeed, winning 2-0 away to Valencia last weekend and picking up other impressive wins along the way, Celta are in great form.

So, it’s great form vs could be starting a winning streak now and, as such, a no bet, a brave Depor + 0.5, BTTS or over 2.5 goals are the choices.

I’m not brave enough to take the Depor + 0.5, and since Celta have kept a few clean sheets recently, will chance my luck on over 2.5 goals.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85

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Rayo v Getafe – Betting Preview & Pick

31 Mar

Manucho

Rayo Vallecano v Getafe, Friday, 19:30 – Sky Sports 3 (UK)

Well, you know the theme with Rayo matches – goals and plenty of them. Getafe, however, haven’t been prolific in front of goal – far from it – but they have scored in two of their last three games and beat Rayo 3-1 in the cup, in mid-December 2015.

All in all, five of Rayo’s last six games have seen three goals or more, with Getafe’s last ten road La Liga games being the same.

In conclusion, over 2.5 goals is the pick, but since Rayo’s last seven games have seen both teams score, with 4/6 head-to-head matches with Geta the same, BTTS and over 2.5 goals as one bet is worth taking if you can’t get the 4/5 about over 2.5 goals.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 or over 2,5 goals & BTTS at 11/10

Wednesday’s Round 27 La Liga Betting Previews

2 Mar

Aduriz

Athletic v Deportivo, 19:00

Missing key players like Williams (out tonight) and Raul Garcia (returns tonight), Athletic survived a couple of penalty scares to eventually score three goals in six minutes and beat Valencia 3-0 at the Mestalla. Depor, meanwhile, lost 1-0 at home to Granada and have still not won a game in 2016.

Now, Depor went from several score draws in a row to two 1-0 losses, so we can’t trust them to score or win, plus they’re missing their goalkeeper, Lux, to suspension, meaning everything points to a home win for Athletic.

However, whilst Athletic – 1 AH is clearly the bet to take, the head-to-head record between the two is of great concern. Indeed, Athletic haven’t beaten Depor at San Mames – old or new – since 2010 with zero wins in the last six H2H at any venue.

Depor have been relegated a couple of times in the last few years, so some of the results have two season’s between them, but Athletic’s Basque only squad never changes that much and players remember these sort of things. You know, oh not them, we never beat them.

Over 2.5 goals could be a decent bet, but on current form it would likely mean that Athletic would have to score three times, and we might as well then take the safer –on paper – Athletic -1 AH.

In conclusion, my column is as much about advice and pointers as tips, I’m spooked by the head-to-head records and have decided no bet, but you’re now armed with the facts and can decide for yourselves. Good luck.

unaiemery

Sevilla v Eibar, 19:00

A more straightforward choice here – Sevilla are very good at home (14 wins in a row) and capable of scoring a few goals, while Eibar are very bad away (3 straight defeats and 4/5) and tend to ship a few goals.

Indeed, Eibar – through Borja Baston (13/5 priced anytime scorer) – tend to score themselves too, netting away to Celta, Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in recent road fixtures, so there’s good scope for a BTTS here.

But, all in all, whilst Sevilla and BTTS is probably a winner, Eibar’s last four La Liga away games contained a total of twenty goals – an average of five per game – so let’s sit back and bet on a home win and over the goals.

Recommendation: Sevilla to win & over 2.5 goals @ 10/11

bruno

Celta v Villarreal, 19:00

An eye-catching fixture for sure and not an easy call. On one hand, we’ve got a revitalised Celta with Nolito back and scoring, while on the other we have a Villarreal side that sits just above fifth-placed Celta in the standings and rarely concedes a goal.

Head-to-head this games has produced mixed results over the years, but the last three have seen both teams score and three or more goals.

Now, Celta’s defence is shaky and they’ve routinely conceded at home – even shipping three to Levante – so I would fancy Villarreal to net one or more in Vigo tonight, but can a defence that kept clean sheets in ten of its last twelve La Liga games keep another against Celta?

Maybe, and given the Yellow Submarines’ strong defence and the fact that they haven’t lost a La Liga game since November 2015, it seems prudent to back Villarreal + 0.5 or .25 in this spot.

Indeed, with a nine point gap between themselves and Celta, Villarreal will be happy with – and might play for – the draw that maintains that gap in the race for a Champions League berth.

Recommendation: Villarreal + 0.25 Asian handicap @ 39/40

GnevValencia

Malaga v Valencia, 19:00

The Anchovies are a strong home team with a good defence that recently held Real Madrid to a draw and was seriously unlucky to lose to Barcelona.

Valencia, as you’ll likely know, were in terrible form under Gary Neville, but finally got their first win under the Englishman and kicked-on from there by continuing their winning form.

However, whilst Los Che had two penalty appeals turned down and should have been leading at this point had Negredo not missed an open goal, Valencia conceded three goals in six minutes to lose 3-0 at home to Athletic Bilbao last time out.

So, the Che momentum is gone and, quite frankly, this game with Malaga will be a big test of their character. Who wins, what’s the pick? Well, I would expect Malaga to win, but i’d also want draw cover and that’s not possible pricewise.

For my money, it’s a no bet as I want to see if Valencia lose for a clearer read of their form after last week’s setback, but I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Malaga – 0.25 AH.

ronaldo1

Levante v Real Madrid, 20:00

There are two ways of looking at this game. Firstly, Levante have conceded fifteen goals in their last six fixtures and tend to ship a few to Real Madrid.

So, with Los Blancos hurt after their derby defeat to Atleti and Ronaldo – surely – now having to produce a five-star performance after criticising his teammates, Real Madrid could run riot.

However, there’s also the argument that Madrid are not a happy camp – with several players expected to leave during the summer – and their away form has not been up to scratch with three draws and a defeat in six games.

Plus, tonight Madrid will miss Bale, Benzema, Ramos and Carvajal, with Pepe and Arbeloa listed as doubtful. A depleted team indeed.

So, either Ronaldo will produce a lead by example performance or Los Blancos will collectively shrink and Levante can take a point or more in an upset.

What seems to fit the bill best is a 1.25 Asian handicap start for Levante, with a small bet on Ronny notching a hat-trick.

Both bets won’t win – hence the big difference in stake sizes – and you should only take the Ronny hat-trick if you get 11/1 (that’s what tempted me in with others 6/1), but I expect to get something back out of this game.

Recommendation: Levante + 1.25 AH @ 1.85

Worth a small punt: Ronaldo hat-trick @ 11/1