Wednesday’s Round 27 La Liga Betting Previews

2 Mar

Aduriz

Athletic v Deportivo, 19:00

Missing key players like Williams (out tonight) and Raul Garcia (returns tonight), Athletic survived a couple of penalty scares to eventually score three goals in six minutes and beat Valencia 3-0 at the Mestalla. Depor, meanwhile, lost 1-0 at home to Granada and have still not won a game in 2016.

Now, Depor went from several score draws in a row to two 1-0 losses, so we can’t trust them to score or win, plus they’re missing their goalkeeper, Lux, to suspension, meaning everything points to a home win for Athletic.

However, whilst Athletic – 1 AH is clearly the bet to take, the head-to-head record between the two is of great concern. Indeed, Athletic haven’t beaten Depor at San Mames – old or new – since 2010 with zero wins in the last six H2H at any venue.

Depor have been relegated a couple of times in the last few years, so some of the results have two season’s between them, but Athletic’s Basque only squad never changes that much and players remember these sort of things. You know, oh not them, we never beat them.

Over 2.5 goals could be a decent bet, but on current form it would likely mean that Athletic would have to score three times, and we might as well then take the safer –on paper – Athletic -1 AH.

In conclusion, my column is as much about advice and pointers as tips, I’m spooked by the head-to-head records and have decided no bet, but you’re now armed with the facts and can decide for yourselves. Good luck.

unaiemery

Sevilla v Eibar, 19:00

A more straightforward choice here – Sevilla are very good at home (14 wins in a row) and capable of scoring a few goals, while Eibar are very bad away (3 straight defeats and 4/5) and tend to ship a few goals.

Indeed, Eibar – through Borja Baston (13/5 priced anytime scorer) – tend to score themselves too, netting away to Celta, Atletico Madrid and Athletic Bilbao in recent road fixtures, so there’s good scope for a BTTS here.

But, all in all, whilst Sevilla and BTTS is probably a winner, Eibar’s last four La Liga away games contained a total of twenty goals – an average of five per game – so let’s sit back and bet on a home win and over the goals.

Recommendation: Sevilla to win & over 2.5 goals @ 10/11

bruno

Celta v Villarreal, 19:00

An eye-catching fixture for sure and not an easy call. On one hand, we’ve got a revitalised Celta with Nolito back and scoring, while on the other we have a Villarreal side that sits just above fifth-placed Celta in the standings and rarely concedes a goal.

Head-to-head this games has produced mixed results over the years, but the last three have seen both teams score and three or more goals.

Now, Celta’s defence is shaky and they’ve routinely conceded at home – even shipping three to Levante – so I would fancy Villarreal to net one or more in Vigo tonight, but can a defence that kept clean sheets in ten of its last twelve La Liga games keep another against Celta?

Maybe, and given the Yellow Submarines’ strong defence and the fact that they haven’t lost a La Liga game since November 2015, it seems prudent to back Villarreal + 0.5 or .25 in this spot.

Indeed, with a nine point gap between themselves and Celta, Villarreal will be happy with – and might play for – the draw that maintains that gap in the race for a Champions League berth.

Recommendation: Villarreal + 0.25 Asian handicap @ 39/40

GnevValencia

Malaga v Valencia, 19:00

The Anchovies are a strong home team with a good defence that recently held Real Madrid to a draw and was seriously unlucky to lose to Barcelona.

Valencia, as you’ll likely know, were in terrible form under Gary Neville, but finally got their first win under the Englishman and kicked-on from there by continuing their winning form.

However, whilst Los Che had two penalty appeals turned down and should have been leading at this point had Negredo not missed an open goal, Valencia conceded three goals in six minutes to lose 3-0 at home to Athletic Bilbao last time out.

So, the Che momentum is gone and, quite frankly, this game with Malaga will be a big test of their character. Who wins, what’s the pick? Well, I would expect Malaga to win, but i’d also want draw cover and that’s not possible pricewise.

For my money, it’s a no bet as I want to see if Valencia lose for a clearer read of their form after last week’s setback, but I wouldn’t talk you out of backing Malaga – 0.25 AH.

ronaldo1

Levante v Real Madrid, 20:00

There are two ways of looking at this game. Firstly, Levante have conceded fifteen goals in their last six fixtures and tend to ship a few to Real Madrid.

So, with Los Blancos hurt after their derby defeat to Atleti and Ronaldo – surely – now having to produce a five-star performance after criticising his teammates, Real Madrid could run riot.

However, there’s also the argument that Madrid are not a happy camp – with several players expected to leave during the summer – and their away form has not been up to scratch with three draws and a defeat in six games.

Plus, tonight Madrid will miss Bale, Benzema, Ramos and Carvajal, with Pepe and Arbeloa listed as doubtful. A depleted team indeed.

So, either Ronaldo will produce a lead by example performance or Los Blancos will collectively shrink and Levante can take a point or more in an upset.

What seems to fit the bill best is a 1.25 Asian handicap start for Levante, with a small bet on Ronny notching a hat-trick.

Both bets won’t win – hence the big difference in stake sizes – and you should only take the Ronny hat-trick if you get 11/1 (that’s what tempted me in with others 6/1), but I expect to get something back out of this game.

Recommendation: Levante + 1.25 AH @ 1.85

Worth a small punt: Ronaldo hat-trick @ 11/1

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