Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews – Round 31

31 Mar

Atletico v Betis

After losing 2-1 away to Sporting Gijon last time out, Simeone’s Atleti have pretty much conceded their La Liga title hopes for the season and will have one eye on their upcoming Champions league match with Barca at Camp Nou.

So, Atleti can take it easy v Betis in La Liga, while Barca can hardly do the same at home to Real Madrid in the Clasico. Los Colchoneros will also miss their regular centre-back pairing of Godin and Gimenez.

Betis + 1.5 handicap start then? Maybe, but so long as he starts the match (check before you bet) the easiest trend to follow is Griezmann anytime scorer as the Frenchman has netted in five straight La Liga games.

Recommendation: Griezmann anytime scorer at 4/5

GnevValencia

Las Palmas v Valencia

Gary Neville’s ill-fated spell as Valencia coach was brought to an end midweek, and Pako Ayestaran takes the reins until the end of the season (in theory). Now, while Rafa Benitez’s old assistant had already been back with Los Che in his old role for a few weeks, he’s still a new coach and, as such, I wouldn’t bet against him and his team.

The bad news for Pako on his debit is that Las Palmas are in good form, defeating both Villarreal and Real Sociedad away and only losing tight home games to Barcelona and Real Madrid in their last six fixtures on the island.

In conclusion, the angles are opposing Las Palmas or accounting for their good form and perhaps an increased effort from the Che players with GNev gone, BTTS (4/5). For my money, it’s a no bet.

Suarez

Barcelona v Real Madrid

Ok, on current from, Barcelona should beat Real Madrid and they likely will, but Los Blancos will be out for revenge after their 4-0 home loss in the last Clasico and 8/13 isn’t an appealing price for the Catalan side.

Now, the long BTTS streak (18+ in a row) was broken in the last Clasico and although it should, in theory, be harder for Real Madrid to score at Camp Nou than at the Bernabeu, I have a feeling that Zidane’s boys will get on the scoresheet.

As such, and particularly since I lost a max bet on over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet in the last Clasico, over 2.5 goals & BTTS as one bet is what I’d like to bet on, looking for revenge, but it’s a mere 8/13 price-wise, so forget that.

In conclusion, a Barca win and both teams to score is a bet I expect to win, but its 6/4 price is shorter than expected and I’ve also opted for over 3.5 match goals – at a fairer price – as a slight preference.

Recommendation: Over 3.5 goals at 9/10

Worth a punt: Barca win & BTTS at 6/4

Nolito

Celta v Deportivo

The Galician derby and one that would have been a lot easier to pick had Deportivo not won their first game of 2016 last time out! Indeed, winning 2-0 away to Valencia last weekend and picking up other impressive wins along the way, Celta are in great form.

So, it’s great form vs could be starting a winning streak now and, as such, a no bet, a brave Depor + 0.5, BTTS or over 2.5 goals are the choices.

I’m not brave enough to take the Depor + 0.5, and since Celta have kept a few clean sheets recently, will chance my luck on over 2.5 goals.

Worth a punt: Over 2.5 goals at 1.85

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