Saturday’s La Liga Betting Previews

8 Dec

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Osasuna v Barcelona: 12:00 – live on Sky Sports 5

Since appointing Joaquin Caparros, Osasuna have lost four games in a row, scoring just one goal and conceding nine. The fact that they managed a goal in their last game potentially ruins a Barca to win to nil bet (evens), or BTTS No, but if Osasuna are to get something out of this games it seems most likely to be via a 0-0 scoreline, which they achieved last time they hosted Barca.

Barca, of course, played an extra game midweek – in the UCL – and their coach, Luis Enrique, may well field a weakened team in Pamplona this weekend as a consequence.

All in all, then, there’s an outside chance of a 0-0, but more than likely Barcelona will win comfortably. Given that the regular Asian line is Barca – 2, meaning that they’d have to win by three goals for the bet to yield profit, and factoring in that Barca have conceded in three of their last four competitive games, the Catalan side to score three or more is the pick.

However, wait and see how strong a team Enrique puts out before betting and don’t take less than 8/11. You can always just bet in-play, judge how likely Barca look to score a few and chance waiting for a better price.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 Barcelona team goals (3/4)

Spare change cover bet: 0-0 correct score (28/1)

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Real Sociedad v Valencia: 15:15

Unlucky not beat Barca after having what would have been a winning goal wrongly ruled out, Real Sociedad were shockingly beaten 5-1 away to Deportivo in their next and most recent fixture.

Valencia, meanwhile, conceded a later leveller to draw 2-2 at home to Malaga last Sunday evening to make it six league games without a win. On a positive note, Los Che did win 3-1 away to Leganes in the cup a few days before hosting Malaga.

However, the only conclusion that can be drawn in the match winner or handicap markets is that you simply cannot justify backing Valencia to win at San Sebastian this weekend.

On the other hand, you can justify backing Los Che to score, and certainly their opponents too as they’ve conceded in every La Liga game so far this season, scoring at least once in 10/12.

Indeed, in all competitions, both teams to score (best priced at 7/10) has occurred in La Real’s last four games, so with the Basque side’s impressive record of having won four of their last six matches against Valencia, and Los Che having conceded two or more goals in four of their last six La Liga matches, Real Sociedad team goals over 1.5 and BTTS and a home win are the bets to take.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Real Sociedad team goals (10/11)

Worth a smaller punt: BTTS and Real Sociedad to win (11/4)

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Las Palmas v Leganes: 17:30 – live on Sky Sports 4

Canary side Las Palmas came from a goal down to draw 1-1 away to Alaves last weekend, while Leganes recovered from a 3-1 midweek home defeat to Valencia in the Copa del Rey by holding an out of form Villarreal side to a 0-0 draw in Madrid.

Interestingly, Las Palmas haven’t lost at home this season, winning four and drawing three, so the ideal wager would be Las Palmas drawn no bet (Asian line 0). However, that’s way too short to back at 1/3 and understandably so.

Leganes, for their part, have an interesting away record with three wins and four losses from seven La Liga games. So, unlike Las Palmas’ home record, zero draws.

All in all, it’s not a five-star bet by any means, but Leganes have lost their last three road games and since they don’t do draws on their travels and Las Palmas are undefeated at home, a victory for Vinny Samways’ old side is the pick.

Recommendation: Las Palmas (5/6)

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Real Madrid v Deportivo La Coruna: 19:45 – live on Sky Sports 3

La Liga leaders Real Madrid conceded a late equaliser to draw 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League midweek, but then they’d been the beneficiaries of a late goal only days earlier when Sergio Ramos’ header secured a draw at Camp Nou in the Clasico.

Deportivo, meanwhile, surprisingly thrashed in-form Real Sociedad 5-1 at the Riazor in the Monday evening La Liga fixture. Notably, the also in-form Florin Andone bagged a brace to make it five goals in his last four La Liga games.

In conclusion, Real Madrid tend to thrash Deportivo and this weekend should be no different, but with potentially tired legs on show, both teams scoring and conceding in five of their last six competitive games, and a – 2.75 Asian handicap relying on a four-goal win for Los Blancos to ensure a full payout, Real Madrid to win and both teams to score is my fancy.

Finally, if you like a big-priced anytine scorer, Andone is best priced at 9/2 and well worth a pop given his form.

Recommendation: BTTS and Real Madrid to win (11/8)

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