Sunday’s La Liga Betting Previews

9 Dec

eibar

Eibar v Alaves: 12:00 – live on Sky Sports Interactive

Just like last season, Eibar were beaten 3-1 away to Basque rivals Athletic in their most recent La Liga fixture, while Alaves drew 1-1 at home to Las Palmas.

Statistically, with only one loss and defeats of teams like Valencia, Villarreal and Real Sociedad, Eibar are currently the sixth best home team in La Liga. Alaves, meanwhile, have managed to defeat Barcelona and Villarreal on their travels, along with drawing against Atletico, and are the fifth best away side in Spain’s top flight.

So, while I feel like I should me making the obvious pick of an Eibar win this weekend, the away side – who’ve won their last three road games in all competitions – have pulled off enough upsets to put me off and make me feel like I have to have the draw onside.

If you can’t choose the match winner it’s always worth looking at goals, and four of Eibar’s last six goals have resulted in both teams scoring, with 4/6 passing the over 2.5 goals mark.

Decent stats, then, but sadly only two of Alaves’ last six games have seen both teams score, with the same mark for over goals. Just not enough to chance an overs or BTTS bet unless you buy into the theory that playing Eibar = goals.

So, all in all, I can’t make a firm recommendation in this game, but you’re now armed with information and I wish you good luck if you opt to have a bet.

apas

Celta Vigo v Sevilla: 15:15 – live on Sky Sports 3

With the red-hot Iago Aspas bagging a brace, Celta drew 3-3 away to Betis in their last game, while Sevilla continued their awful away form in La Liga by losing 2-1 away to Granada to give their hosts a first league win of the season.

Of course, Sevilla played in the UEFA Champions League midweek, drawing 0-0 away to Lyon, and although they rested a few players, enough of their regulars played to mix tired legs into the equation.

Notably, Celta have won their last five home league matches, but conceded in them all. Now, both teams have scored in Sevilla’s last six away La Liga games, plus four of the last six head-to-head contests between the two, so you’d expect this weekend’s tie to follow suit.

Sadly, however, BTTS Yes is priced around 4/7 and too short for a single bet. You could instead back over 2.5 goals and BTTS as one bet at even money (2.0) and I certainly wouldn’t talk you out of that, but the safest and simplest play seems to be backing Celta on a draw no bet basis at home to a team who’ve played an extra game midweek and won something like (at a guess) three of their last twenty-seven away league games.

Recommendation: Celta draw no bet (10/11)

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Espanyol v Sporting Gijon: 17:30 – live on Sky Sports 3

Defence-minded Espanyol ground out a 0-0 draw away to Atletico Madrid last weekend, meaning that they’re now undefeated in eight league games and nine if we add the cup.

Last weekend was a landmark for Sporting too as they won their first league game since September when defeating hapless Osasuna 3-1 in Gijon.

All in all, I feel I should be making the simple pick of Espanyol to defeat Sporting, but the visitors have a good record away to their hosts, losing only one of their last five visits and 8/11 is not a great price for the Barcelona-based team.

Instead, and since Espanyol tend to reserve 0-0’s for when they play bigger teams, coupled with the fact that Sporting’s last five competitive games have seen three goals or more, the home team to score two or more is my pick.

Recommendation: Over 1.5 Espanyol team goals (evens)

castro5

Real Betis v Athletic Bilbao: 19:45 – live on Sky Sports 1

In a thrilling game, Betis drew 3-3 at home to Celta last Sunday to make it one win, one loss and a draw in three league games since their new coach took over.

Athletic, on the other hand, defeated fellow Basque’s Eibar 3-1 at the new San Mames, which they followed up with a 1-1 draw away to Rapid Vienna in the Europa League a few days later.

All in all, I’d have recommended Athletic + 0.5 in previous seasons, but this time they’ve played an extra game midweek and are far looser at the back then they used to be.

Betis, as mentioned, haven’t shown any consistency recently, so I’m just not confident enough to make a pick in the match winner or handicap markets.

It could well be a BTTS game and if anything, that or over 2.5 goals is what I’d chance as both teams have scored in five of Athletic’s last six competitive games with four seeing three or more goals, but it’s only a 2/6 for Betis in both markets, so I’m not confident enough to bet on either market.

Anyway, thanks for reading and hopefully my thoughts prove to be useful.

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