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Atletico Madrid v Real Madrid – Betting Preview

11 Feb

DiegoCosta

Atletico Madrid (3.3) v Real Madrid (2.38)

Held at the Bernabeu stadium, the first leg of this Copa del Rey semi-final ended in a comfortable 3-0 win for Real Madrid. Two of Real’s goals were fortuitous own goals, but Los Blancos deserved their victory.

So what went wrong with Atletico? Well, their game is based on collective hard work, with a stern defence that rarely concedes and a striker that is able to take one of the few chances he gets.

Against the big boys in particular, favourable low scoring outcomes came as a direct result of a peak Los Colchoneros squad playing to their strengths and believing in their manager’s system.

Super Copa included, in the three games they’ve played against Barca this season, Atletico have twice drawn 0-0 and once 1-1. When they defeated Real Madrid in La Liga earlier this season, it was 1-0.

What seems to have gone wrong recently – and it was always inevitable – is that Atletico, in comparison to Barcelona and Real Madrid, have little depth in their squad and, after playing league and cup games for four consecutive weeks, have suffered from fatigue and injuries.

So, once again, credit to Real Madrid for beating Atletico 3-0 last week but, part of the equation was that Atletico were simply too tired and not able to impose their game.

Instead of Diego Costa taking one of his few chances and Courtois making heroic saves, Costa didn’t produce a meaningful effort on goal and the Belgian keeper saw shots deflected past him by his own players.

Brazilian midfielder Diego, who played for Atletico a year or so ago, is a wise addition on-loan to freshen things up offensively. But given that they didn’t look like scoring in their shock 2-0 defeat at Almeria last weekend, expecting an off-colour Atletico to defeat Real Madrid by three goals or more seems like pie in the sky.

But I wouldn’t recommend backing Real Madrid to win tonight either, because at this level I won’t bet on teams who don’t need to win on the night, particularly those who are 3-0 up on aggregate.

There is no magic cure to tiredness, but it’s not impossible that Atletico, with pride in mind and a further point to prove after defeat to Almeria in La Liga, could find that little bit of extra mental and physical strength required to secure in order a draw or better. As such, Atletico + 0.25 Asian handicap is one to consider at 1.98.

Alternatively, though no longer overpriced, under 2.5 goals is a brave but fully justifiable punt at 1.99. Indeed, Real Madrid don’t need to score and Atletico have had trouble doing that recently.

In conclusion, I’m going to wait for team news before making a decision, but hope that you’ve found this article a useful read.
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Barca & Atletico to prosper – Copa del Rey Semi-Final 1st Leg Betting Preview

5 Feb

DiegoCosta

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid, 19:00 – live on Sky Sports 2 (UK)

Pricewise, you can argue that the value is with Real Madrid, who are available at 1.91, but then Atletico have beaten Los Blancos twice in a row at the Bernabeu and you can also argue that the market is, therefore, as it should be.

Also, including the two Super Copa games, Simeone’s Los Colchoneros have thrice held Barcelona to draws within the last six months, and they’re also the only team to have beaten Athletic Bilbao at their new San Mames stadium.

In conclusion, all of this tells us that Atletico must now be considered to be on the same playing level as the ‘Big Two’ of Spanish football, and that as they are undefeated against Real and Barca in five combined games, we should bet on them avoiding defeat once more.

Recommendation: Atletico Madrid + 0.5 Asian handicap (2.05)

messi

Barcelona v Real Sociedad, 21:00 – live on Sky Sports 2 (UK)

In preparation for this game, perhaps the players of Real Sociedad saved a little energy in their 4-0 defeat at Atletico Madrid’s Vicente Calderon stadium last weekend, but the stronger factor appears to be that, since they’ve been comprehensively beaten by both Barcelona and Real Madrid on the road already this season, La Real simply cannot compete with the big boys on away ground.

Now, I’d like to back Barcelona on a minus handicap, but the line closest to evens is – 2.5, and I wouldn’t want to risk more than – 2, which brings about a refund on the Asian lines if Barca only win by two goals, in the first leg of a cup tie.

Alternatively, Barca team goals over 2.5 and over 3.5 match goals carry strong appeal, but not pricewise as each are only available at 1.65, which is too short for a single in my eyes.

Instead, as both teams have scored in the last six head to head meetings between Barcelona and Real Sociedad, I’ve opted to bet on Match Result & Both Teams to Score: Barcelona.

Recommendation: BTTS & Barcelona to win (2.45)

Levante v Barcelona Betting Preview – 22/01/14

22 Jan

Levante v Barcelona

Head to head and from 2011 onwards only, this game has produced 1-1, 1-2, 0-4 and (only a few days ago) 1-1 results.
So, Barca don’t lose at this ground, but it’s been a BTTS game in 3/4 and, bar the 0-4, hasn’t been a fixture they win with ease.

However, there are a few other factors worth considering that seem more relevant this time:

This is a cup game but, surely, Barca will have a point to prove after dropping points in their 1-1 draw with Levante last Sunday.

Levante have held Barca to draws in the past because they play like they’re in cup final, with an organised ‘park the bus’ defensive mentality.

Key this time, though, is that Levante have a small squad of players, with ten of them probably quite tired after last weekend’s game.

Indeed, if Levante field a near full strength team, then they seem unlikely to prevent Barca’s offence from banging two goals plus in.

If Levante field a very weak and inexperienced team, or a mix with tired players, Barca can still, on paper, win by a couple of goals, with a clean sheer surely more likely this time.

Perhaps it’s time for another 0-4 or similar in the head to head records, but I believe the correct tactical play is Barcelona – 1.75 Asian handicap, which is currently best priced at 1.83.

However – and it’s the biggest however – I would not recommend placing this bet until the starting X1’s have been released (generally an hour before KO).

If Messi, Fabregas, Alexis and Pedro start, or Messi and any two of the others, then I recommend this bet to those looking for one.

Second choice and perhaps worth a punt if what I’ve just stated directly above rings true, is Barca team goals over 2.5 at 1.83.

Anyway, I hope this brief preview is of use to you, and good luck.

JC

Midweek Copa del Rey betting previews: 14 -16 Jan

14 Jan

COPADELREY

Atletico Madrid v Valencia

Suggested bet: Valencia + 1.5 Asian handicap (1.75 best price)

We know how good Atletico Madrid are in general, and in particular at home, but Valencia deserved the draw they got in the first leg of this tie, showing good intensity in the process.

Albeit under a different coach, Valencia also held and matched Atletico for an hour or so when the teams last met at the Vicente Calderon in the league. Though I must point out that Atletico eventually won 3-0.

Valencia’s new coach, despite suffering his first defeat as Che coach in Vigo last weekend, champions playing with intensity, like his counterpart Simeone, and the team have looked better since.

Given that they fought for 90 minutes in a, surely, physically draining game against Barcelona, you have to think that Atletico’s regular starters will be more tired than Valencia’s.

Given the above, Los Colchoneros will either field a very tired 11 or, more likely, a mixture of tired starters and backup players.

With surely a few tired players on show, Atletico might be happy to just win 1-0.

Valencia could, of course, even take advantage of slightly fresher legs and sneak a draw but, more likely, a few tired Atletico legs might just take that 1-0 win.

Suggested bet: Under 2.5 goals (2.16)

As mentioned in the handicap bet reasoning, there could be some tired legs on show for the home side, but Atletico have kept clean sheets and won 1-0 in similar circumstances before.

The Valencia coach, Pizzi, is not known to be adventurous in away games and his side struggle to score goals.

The current aggregate score is 1-1, which is enough to take a side that has the best defence in Spain through to the next round.

a 1-0 or 2-0 Atletico Madrid win seems more likely than a high scoring win given potential tiredness.

Athletic Bilbao v Real Betis

Suggested bet: Over 2.5 goals (1.73)

There should have been 4 or 5 goals in the first leg, with Athletic missing some great chances, but Betis winning 1-0.

Athletic, despite drawing a blank away to Real Sociedad, and in Seville, can score a few at the new (when can I stop calling it ‘New?’) San Mames, as evidenced in their 6-1 defeat of Almeria on Saturday.

I should think that Athletic will field a near or full strength team, as the Copa is a winnable target for them.

After their first leg frustration, Athletic should go for it from the off, so things like over 1,1.5 first half goal line, goal before 30:00 and over 1 first half goal line should be strongly considered by bettors.

Despite the new ground to factor in, Betis have won and scored a few in Bilbao before, and our boy Ruben Castro (and Molina) might just able to notch again.

In conclusion, Athletic may win 3 or 4-1, but I think it’s a great shot for over 2.5 goals.

Osasuna v Real Madrid

Suggested bet: Osasuna + 1.5 Asian line (1.91)

Ronaldo will likely not play after his award victory

Real Madrid have, by their standards, been unimpressive recently, particularly in away games.

Los Blancos often struggle in Pamplona, having to come from two goals down to draw 2-2 with a ten man Osasuna side a couple of months back. Last season, in the league, Real drew 0-0 here.

Osasuna hate Madrid and their partisan crowd, which is close to the pitch, seems to spur them on in these clashes.

Barcelona also often struggle against Osasuna in Pamplona, drawing 0-0 a few weeks ago.

Real Madrid are 2-0 up on aggregate, so they don’t even need to win this tie.

If Osasuna have to attack because they are 2-0 down, this could open the counter for Real Madrid, so this is the main risk in this bet.

But Real Madrid may field a weakened side, and if the full strength 11 struggles here and the backups don’t even need to win, this bet is the correct tactical play – win or lose.

Of course, it’s wise to wait for the Real Madrid 11, but you risk losing the price on this bet.

Getafe v Barcelona

Suggested bet: Getafe + 1.75 Asian Handicap (1.91)

The first leg ended 4-0, so unless Barca are giving Messi a run out at the Alfonso Perez, they should field a weakened team, certainly when you also factor in that the Catalans best 11 must be cream-crackered after playing Atletico in Madrid.

Getafe have beaten Barca here before, so a win on the night against a presumed weakened Barca side is not out of the question.

At 4-0, Barca don’t even need to win on the night, while a one goal margin win is enough for the club to be happy.

Tuesday’s Copa del Rey bets

8 Jan

COPADELREY

Stake sizes are 1.5 units for ‘worth a punt’ bets and 0.5 for ‘worth a small punt.’ If you opt to follow these bets and the staking scheme, choose how much a unit means to you, and only ever bet what you can afford to lose.

Good luck!

Alcorcon v Espanyol

-In their last 9 home games, Alcorcon have only won 1.
-Alcorcon have not won a home game since September 2013.
-Alcorcon have lost 2 of their last 3 at home.
-The Espanyol coach, displeased with the loss at Osasuna, says he’ll field an unchanged side.

Worth a punt: Espanyol draw no bet (1.7)

Worth a small punt Copa del Rey treble:

Over 1.5/2 goal line in Alcocron v Espanyol
-Over 2 goaline in Betis v Athletic Bilbao
-Over 2.5 Barcelona team goals v Getafe

3.05 price

2012/13 Copa del Rey final – Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

16 May

images (7)

Copa del Rey Final – 20:30 – live on Sky Sports 1

Seems little point in discussing this game in great depth as, like a Phil Taylor v Raymond van Barneveld darts match, one side holds a massive mental advantage over the over due to constantly beating them.

In this case, Atletico Madrid haven’t beaten Real since 1999 – when Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink played for Los Colchoneros! In most meetings this century, there have been few opportunities better than the one Atleti had in the league a few weeks ago.

Basically, with Real playing in the UEFA Champions League days later, Los Blancos rested nine of their eleven starters from the previous game and still won 2-1 at Atletico’s Vicente Calderon stadium!

So, while an Atletico win grows more and more plausible as the year’s progress, they just don’t seem able to get the job done.

Therefore, besides throwing your money up in the air and guessing that Atleti will finally get it right in the Copa final, what makes anyone think that they’ll finally defeat Real when the circumstances – regular starters available, game held at their own stadium etc – favour Los Blancos more than ever this time?

From a fan perspective, I’d like to see Los Colchoneros defeat Real this Friday, but from a betting perspective – and bear in mind that I’m not someone who just keeps backing the same thing under the guise that it has to win sooner or later – the main recommendation has to be something to so with a Real Madrid win.

In saying that, I’d expect both teams to score (8/15) and Falcao (6/1 first scorer, 4/6 anytime) to net for Atleti, but the prices on offer are simply too short for me to recommend as my main pick.

As I can’t bet with William Hill because I work for them, I’ve bet on Real – 1 Asian line elsewhere in the expectancy that my bet should be a push worst case.

Now, as Hills don’t offer Asian lines the closest I can find for you is Real -1 straight handicap at 13/10. For those unaware, this bet means that Real will have to win by two goals in order for you to win the bet.

Of course, tricky position for me in terms of recommendations, but I’ve given you honest insight from a work and personal perspective and wish you the best of luck betting on the 2012/13 Copa del Rey final.

Finally, should you wish to bet on the William Hill headline offers for this game, please click on the link below where you’ll find all of your markets.

View all of our betting for Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid

Thursday’s Copa del Rey preview: 2012/13 – Atletico Madrid v Sevilla – First leg

31 Jan

negredo

Atletico Madrid v Sevilla

Click for projected Marca line-ups

-Falcao is no longer listed as injured, but is unlikely to start tonight.

-Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros have won every game played on home soil in 2012/13.

-As we’ve seen vs Betis in the last round and many times in the league this season, Atleti look for two goal leads and then shut up shop, so to speak.

-Sevilla are unbeaten under Emery, conceding only 1 goal in 4 games.

-While statistics relating to Sevilla’s away results are of less importance leveraged against those posted since Emery took charge, it’s still the same set of players – just with more confidence and desire to play for their boss.

-Sevilla’s last three away games – with Emery in charge of two – have all gone under 2.5 goals.

-Atleti’s last three home games have also contained 3 goals or less – all ending 2-0.

Conclusion

Well, it would take a brave man to back Sevilla considering Atleti’s home record. But with Falcao likely to miss out, Sevilla undefeated since Emery took charge and both teams being low scorers, under 2.5 goals looks like the best bet at 2.0 with blue square.

However, although this is the best conclusion I can come to for you, I want a relaxed evening after wagering more money than normal on last night’s Clasico and will abstain from pre-match betting tonight.

Lastly, for those looking for alternatives to the stressful unders bet, the draw at 3.8 (Stan James) and Sevilla + 0.75 (188bet) are worth consideration, while Negredo anytime (3.0, various) is the obvious choice is you’re looking for a decent priced anytime scorer.

Whatever you choose, best of luck!